No. 15 Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-1 1-2 ATS) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (3-1 2-2 ATS) Kyle Field College Station, TX 12:30 PM EST Saturday October 10, 2009 TV: ESPN Dallas
By Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: TBA (no line as of 10/7)
This Saturday afternoon in College Station the Texas A&M Aggies host the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Both teams are 3-1 this season and this is the first Big 12 game for both teams. OSU has their work cut out for them in this game, as they are not only playing away, but they face an Aggies offense that ranks 2nd in total yards, 5th in passing yards, 15th in rushing yards, and 7th in points scored. The Cowboys have not won at College Station in their last 2 visits. If the Cowboys want to keep their slim hopes of a BCS game alive they must win this game.
Last week the Aggies suffered their first loss of the season getting crushed by Arkansas 47-19 while the Cowboys had an off week, but in the previous week they were on the other side of the thrashing beating Grambling State 56-6.
In the Aggies embarrassing loss at the hands of Arkansas, A&M had more total yards and more passing yards, but the could not stop the run, as the Razorbacks had 163 yards on the ground. The Aggies also played a sloppy game, as they were penalized 8 times for 87 yards. Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett only had 17 completions, but he had 4 TD’s. The Aggies did have 345 passing yards, but most of them came after they were already way behind. The Aggies were favored by 2 points so they were nowhere near covering the spread and the 66 points scored came close to the posted total of 67, but the Under was the right pick.
In the 56-6 thrashing of Football Championship Subdivision foe Grambling State a couple of weeks back the Cowboys dominated the game out-gaining Grambling 587 yards to 260 yards and even though they had almost identical rushing attempts the OSU D played well only allowing an average of 3.7 yards per carry. The Cowboys had no problem in this game even though standout RB Kendall Hunter and All-American receiver Dez Bryant did not play. Even though the point spread was huge with OSU as 40.5-point favorites they still covered.
This game does not set up well for the 15ht ranked Cowboys, as Texas A&M has the nations’ 2nd ranked offense and the Cowboys have the nations’ 58th ranked defense. However, the Aggies only scored 19 points last week and in their first 3 wins, which they put up sick numbers, they played the weak teams of New Mexico, Utah State, and University of Alabama-Birmingham.
The Cowboys have the nation’s 44th ranked defense and they will have to contain the Aggies RB duo of Cyrus Gray (265 yds 5 TD) and Christine Michael (that is NOT a typo) (233 yds 1 TD).
Actually, the OSU D may have to worry about the Aggies passing attack led by QB Jerrod Johnson (1,306 yds 11 TD), who has yet to throw an INT this season. That will not be easy for a Cowboys’ D that only ranks 83rd in the nation in passing defense.
The status of RB Kendall Hunter and WR Dez Bryant is up in the air, but their replacements last game of Freshman RB Jeremy Smith ran for 160 yards and a TD and WR Dameron Fooks caught 2 TD’s after neither had a single yard in their Cowboys’ career.
The Aggies rank 75th in the nation on defense and their weaknesses showed last week. If they cannot stop the run they will get crushed again. OSU features a solid running game, ranked 15th in the nation.
OSU’s Keith Toston (280 yds 4 TD) has been solid, they may get RB Kendall Hunter back, and Jeremy Smith had 160 yards last week averaging 10.7 yards per carry. That does not bode well for an Aggies’ run defense that ranks 77th in the nation.
Even though the Cobwoys’ offense only ranks 64th in the nation in passing yards per game QB Zac Robinson is no slouch and WR’s Dez Bryant and Josh Cooper are both averaging over 15 yards per reception.
In a few trends for this game the Aggies have lost 12 of their last 15 home games against ranked opponents, the Cowboys are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 road games, and the Cowboys are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against the Aggies.
Jason’s Pick: I don’t think the Aggies have the offense that their rankings show, as in their first game against a legit team, Arkansas, they were crushed. The Cowboys simply have too many weapons, especially in their rushing attack, for the Aggies to handle. The 3rd time is the charm, as the Cowboys will beat the Aggies at home for the 1st time in their last 3 games at Kyle Field.