Oregon Ducks vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Pick ATS

by | Sep 7, 2021 | cfb

Oregon Ducks (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)

When: Saturday, September 11, Noon

Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio


Point Spread: ORE +14.5/OSU -14.5

Total: O/U 63.5

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Week 1 was a tale of two halves for these teams, as Oregon looked strong in the first half before holding on for dear life against Fresno State, while Ohio State turned on the jets in the second half to turn away an upset-minded Minnesota. The Ducks scored the majority of their points in the first half before coming up big when it mattered most, but they might not be able to get away with something similar this time around.

That’s because Ohio State should be a lot more relaxed now that C.J. Stroud has a game under his belt. The Buckeyes were debuting a new quarterback, and after an uncomfortable first half in the face of a hostile crowd, Ohio State stepped up to meet the challenge and emerged with the cover as well as the victory. The Buckeyes’ schedule gets a lot softer after this one, so Ohio State should be looking to go out and put up another impressive performance before giving way to their backups over the next two weeks. The U of O, on the other hand, could vault itself into the national conversation with a victory here — or serve as another sign that the Pac-12 just isn’t on the level of the other four Power 5 conferences.

How the Public is Betting the Oregon/Ohio State Game

The public didn’t like what it saw from the Oregon offense in the second half against Fresno State, and it’s on the side of the Buckeyes, as the total has jumped from an even 14 to a hook at -14.5. The total has dropped half a point in response, falling from 64 to 63.5.

Injury Concerns

Defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux (leg), tight end Patrick Herbert (knee), running back Sean Dollars (knee), defensive tackle Jaylen Smith (undisclosed), linebacker Jackson LaDuke (leg) and offensive lineman Bram Walden (leg) are questionable. Wide receiver Troy Franklin (undisclosed) is probable, and safety J.J. Greenfield is suspended indefinitely.

Ohio State:
Cornerback Cameron Brown (undisclosed), cornerback Sevyn Banks (undisclosed) and offensive lineman Harry Miller (undisclosed) are all questionable. Defensive end Tyler Friday (knee) and safety Jaylen Johnson (knee) are out for the season and safety Marcus Hooker is suspended indefinitely.

When Oregon Has the Ball

The good news is that Oregon didn’t stop itself with turnovers the way it did in 2020, but the bad news is that the Ducks still stopped themselves. Oregon couldn’t get much of anything going after the first half, in large part because the ground game was a pedestrian 3.8 yards per carry and nobody really got established in the passing game. On one hand, Oregon did a solid job spreading the ball around and getting several receivers involved in the act, but no Duck managed more than three catches for the contest.

Nobody established themselves last season either and Oregon got away with it, but in a situation where the Ducks are probably going to have to pass a fair amount to keep pace, they need to have a go-to receiver. Anthony Brown didn’t show enough against Fresno State to get the job done, and he’s going to have to be a bit more aggressive without being reckless here.

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When Ohio State Has the Ball

The Buckeyes looked unsettled during the first half against Minnesota, but once they got the offense in gear, it was clear they were on another level compared to the Gophers. Ohio State scored on four of its final five possessions (not counting the last one, where they were trying to run the clock out and did so), and really hurt Minnesota with the big play.

The big question for the Buckeyes is whether they can keep having success if the big play doesn’t come. Lost in the fact that Ohio State put up 45 points was the fact that the Buckeyes ran four plays in the red zone all night and only managed three points on their one venture inside the 20. Every other score came on a play that started at least 35 yards from the end zone. For all that C.J. Stroud and Miyan Williams showed with the big plays, the Buckeyes have yet to prove that they can actually score if a defense forces them to go a little at a time.

Betting Trends

Ohio State has struggled to cover the number when they’ve played at home, as they’ve only managed one cover out of four in the Horseshoe and got it against Nebraska. However, the Buckeyes have shined in September when they aren’t playing Big Ten opponents, and they’ve been nothing less than outstanding against the Pac-12, covering in 12 of their past 15 games against Pac-12 teams.
Oregon has been an automatic fade on the road as of late, failing to cover in seven of their past eight trips away from Eugene. That’s even more true here, as the Ducks are 0-9 all-time against Ohio State. The Ducks have also seen the under cash in four straight games.

Weather Report

Warm and clear weather should be on the horizon in Columbus, as temperatures are set to hit 80 degrees on Saturday. With wind blowing south at just nine miles per hour, weather shouldn’t play much of a role in this one.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Oregon hasn’t really shown much of anything to suggest that it can keep pace with Ohio State. The Ducks sputtered against Fresno State, and Ohio State’s offense looks capable of doing just about anything it wants in this contest. The Ducks have a history of coming up big in important games, but this time, they appear to be overmatched.

I’ll take Ohio State to land the cover in this one. Hey! Why are you still betting on games at -110 odds when you could be laying only -105 at BetAnySports?!?!