Oregon Ducks (10-1 SU, 6-5 ATS) vs. Oregon State Beavers (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS)
College Football Week 13
Date and Time: Saturday, November 24, 2012, 3:00PM
Where: Reser Stadium Corvallis, Oregon
TV: Pac-12 Network
by Bob, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: ORE -9.5/OSU +9.5
Over/Under Total: OFF
Well, just as I predicted last weekend, the Oregon Ducks were challenged and beaten by the Stanford Cardinal. Oregon sat in the driver’s seat to the BCS title game but now they are at the mercy of those teams ranked ahead of them. Their path gets no easier now that they have to take their in-state rivals the Oregon State Beavers. The “Civil War” as this game is known has been played since 1894 and the two teams have faced off 115 times in that period. Currently, Oregon leads the series 59-46-10 and they won last season’s contest by a score of 49-21. Not only do they lead the overall series and have claim to last year’s one sided victory, but the Ducks have also won 4 straight. This season however could be different. The Ducks come in with a record of 10-1, while the Beavers of Oregon State sit at 8-2. Oregon State players, fans, and coaches would love nothing more than to deliver the knockout punch to the Ducks that keep them from reaching the BCS National Title game. On the other hand, the Ducks would like to continue their recent dominance over the Beavers as well as get the bad taste out of their mouths that was put there by Stanford’s overtime win.
The Oregon Ducks travel to Corvallis to get back on the winning track as well as try to get themselves back in position for a title run. Oregon comes in as still the number two ranked scoring offense in the nation along with the 3rd best run game. Oregon was all but shut down in the Stanford loss this past weekend, but like I pointed out in last week’s article, the Cardinal had the nation’s 12th best defense, which was without question the toughest test that the Ducks would endure to date. Not only has Oregon been a scoring machine this season, they have been this way for a few seasons now. In the last 4 editions of the “Civil War,” the Ducks have scored 49, 37, 37, and 65 points for an average of 47 points per game. Oregon is by far the favorite in this game coming in at anywhere from 9.5 - 10 point favorites and not only that but on paper, they should win this game big. With that said, here we are, rivalry week, where anything can happen in any matchup. Oregon will need to focus on keeping the Beavers out of the endzone. The Ducks will score points, but keeping their rivals score down will help put this game away quickly.
Oregon State. The most hated rival by those Ducks from Eugene. Oregon has been right on cue playing great ball and having themselves ranked in the top 5 with just a couple of weeks to go but the real shocker has been the success of Oregon State. They come in at 8-2 overall and have won big games against Wisconsin, BYU, and UCLA. Their only 2 losses of the season has been against Washington, who I feel is the most undervalued team in the country, and Stanford, who needless to say also knocked off the Ducks due in part by their stellar defensive play. Some say that Oregon State’s record is a result of a weak schedule, but they haven’t played much less competition that the Ducks have. The Beavers have not been overly impressive with each victory, but they did manage to score 62 points against Cal and 42 versus BYU. The Beavers are ranked in the top 25 in two major categories: 21st in scoring defense and 22nd in passing offense. Both of these will be key if they are to have a chance against Oregon. Oregon wants this game to be over by halftime, while the Beavers want to match score for score with the Ducks and force it to be a one possession game in the 4th quarter. Let’s take a quick glance at how these teams have fared against the spread this season.
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: You can throw all the stats, trends and info out for this game. This will be a dog fight with a likely result of the team who has the ball last winning this game straight up. OSU has pulled off some big-time upsets at Reser Stadium and while it may seem impossible for them to knock off the high flying U of O Ducks, it is indeed possible. I’m betting the Beavers at +9.5.
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