Penn State Nittany Lions vs Northwestern Wildcats ATS Pick

by | Last updated Sep 27, 2023 | cfb

Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0 SU, ATS 3-0) vs Northwestern Wildcats (2-2 SU, ATS 1-2)

Date: Saturday, September 30th

Location: Ryan Field, Evanston, IL


Point Spread: PSU -26/NW +26 (Check out our best sportsbooks list! Tons of 100% bonuses!)

Money Line: Penn State -6104/Northwestern +1482

Over/Under: 45.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions and Northwestern Wildcats matchup in a Big Ten showdown at Ryan Field in Evanston, IL. The over/under for this matchup is currently 45.5 while Penn State is favored by -26.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

Penn State will look to carry over the momentum from last year’s 17-7 win over Northwestern. In the game, Penn State threw for 140 yards while averaging 14.0 yards per completion. Northwestern ran for 31 compared to 220 for Penn State.

Penn State Nittany Lions Recent Form:

Heading into this week’s matchup with Northwestern, the Penn State Nittany Lions are still undefeated at 4-0. In their most recent game, they took down Iowa by a score of 31-0.

With an over/under line of 38.5 going into the game, the teams fell short of that number with 31 points. Penn State covered the spread as 14-point favorites.

In the win against Iowa, quarterback Drew Allar achieved a QB rating of 113.12, completing 25 of 37 passes for 166 yards. Additionally, he contributed four touchdowns to the game.

Kaytron Allen carried the ball 21 times vs. Iowa and led the team with 72 yards on the ground and did not run for a touchdown in the game. In terms of receiving, KeAndre Lambert-Smith was the standout for the team, finding the endzone one time and securing eight balls for 66 yards.

The Nittany Lions defense is coming off a game in which they shutout the Hawkeyes and gave up a total of 76 yards. Iowa ran the ball 17 times vs. Penn State for 20 yards. The Nittany Lions’ secondary gave up a total of 56 passing yards. The Nittany Lions’ defense has given up 81.5 rushing yards per game this season, which is 179th. Opponents are recording an average of 138 passing yards, and opposing quarterbacks come in with a passer rating of 47.5 when playing against Penn State. In terms of points allowed, they currently sit 97th in NCAA rankings.

Away Injury Report

FullName Position InjuryBodyPart InjuryStatus
Alonzo Ford Jr. DT Undisclosed Out
Malick Meiga WR Undisclosed Questionable
Jan Mahlert WR Undisclosed Questionable
Tyler Johnson WR Undisclosed Questionable
Ian Harvie OL Undisclosed Questionable
Jashaun Green S Undisclosed Questionable
Mason Robinson DE Undisclosed Questionable
David Kency Jr. RB Undisclosed Questionable
Karson Kiesewetter QB Undisclosed Questionable

Best Parlays

2 Team Parlay 3 Team Parlay 4 Team Parlay
sportsbetting 2.64 to 1 6 to 1 12.3 to 1
Bovada 2.64 to 1 5.95 to 1 12.3 to 1
Mybookie 2.64 to 1 5.95 to 1 12.3 to 1

Northwestern Wildcats Recent Form:

After their most recent win against Minnesota, Northwestern has themselves back to .500. The Wildcats are now gearing up for this week’s game with a record of 2-2.

On the betting lines, the over/under was 39, resulting in a hit for the over. Northwestern not only won but covered, as they were the betting underdogs at +11.5.

Quarterback Ben Bryant threw for four touchdowns in Northwestern’s win over Minnesota. Overall, he had a passer rating of 119.09 while completing 67.3% of his passes for 396 yards.

Cam Porter carried the ball 16 times against Minnesota, leading the team with 56 yards and one touchdown. Bryce Kirtz was the go-to receiver for the team, finding the endzone two times and securing 10 balls for 215 yards.

The Wildcats’ defense finished the game by giving up 397 total yards to Minnesota. The team’s run defense allowed 244 yards rushing compared to 153 in the passing game. Coming into their matchup vs. Penn State, the Northwestern defense is 70th in points allowed, giving up 25.8 points per game. So far, opponents have averaged 187.5 passing yards per game against them (47th in the country). Against the run, they’re allowing 184.5 rushing yards, which ranks them 129th in college football.

Home Injury Report

FullName Position InjuryBodyPart InjuryStatus
Raymond Niro III WR Undisclosed Questionable
Preston Bacon WR Undisclosed Questionable
Marshall Lang TE Lower Body Questionable
Chris Petrucci TE Undisclosed Questionable
Blake Van Buren TE Undisclosed Questionable
Frank Covey IV WR Undisclosed Out

Betting Trends

  • Penn State’s three most recent games vs. the spread has seen them go 3-0 against the spread.
  • Looking across Northwestern’s five most recent home games, they are 1-4 against the spread.
  • Northwestern’s ATS record in their five most recent games as underdog is 2-3.
  • Looking back on the last five times Penn State was favored, their ATS record was 5-0.

Line Movement:

Regarding the current moneyline odds, Northwestern is currently given a 6% chance of winning, along with a moneyline payout of +1532. On the other hand, the Nittany Lions’ implied win percentage is 98%, with a moneyline of -6229. The point spreads have seen minimal changes so far. Penn State currently holds the advantage with a 26-point spread and a payout of -112, while Northwestern is at +26 (-109). On the over/under, the line of 45.5 has remained the same as when it opened.

Free Pick

With a 26-point spread, Penn State is heavily favored, and for good reason. Their defense is suffocating, and QB Drew Allar is in sublime form. Northwestern, meanwhile, has been inconsistent, especially on defense. Pick: Penn State -26

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