Saturday Night Clash: Betting Preview & Picks for Notre Dame vs. Duke

by | Last updated Sep 27, 2023 | cfb

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-1 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) at Duke Blue Devils

(4-0, 3-1), 9/30/23

When: 7:30 pm ET Saturday, Sept. 30

Where: Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium


Point Spread: ND -5.5/DUKE +5.5 (Bet parlays? Be sure you’re getting the best parlay odds!)

Total: 52

Matchup Overview

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-1) are set to face off against the Duke Blue Devils (4-0) this Saturday, September 30, 2023, at 7:30 pm in Durham, NC. Notre Dame comes in as a 5.5-point favorite, with an over/under set at 52 points.

Last Game Performances

Notre Dame came up short against Ohio State, losing 17-14. Despite the loss, they covered the spread and managed to put up 351 total yards against a formidable defense.

Duke, on the other hand, bulldozed UCONN in a 41-7 victory. Covering the 22-point spread, Duke’s offense amassed 322 total yards, while the defense allowed just 203 yards.

Key Statistics Breakdown

Offensive Efficiency

  • Notre Dame: Points/Play 0.566 (No.11), Yards/Play 7.3 (No.6)
  • Duke: Points/Play 0.572 (No.10), Yards/Play 6.3 (No.26)

Both teams are efficient offensively, but Duke edges out Notre Dame slightly in points per play.

Defensive Prowess

  • Notre Dame: Opp Points/Play 0.125 (No.3), Opp Yards/Play 4.0 (No.4)
  • Duke: Opp Points/Play 0.236 (No.22), Opp Yards/Play 4.4 (No.21)

Notre Dame has the defensive upper hand, but don’t discount Duke’s solid performance this season.

Turnover Margin

  • Notre Dame: TO Margin/Game -0.6
  • Duke: TO Margin/Game -1.25

Duke has the better turnover margin, which could be pivotal in this matchup.

Rushing Metrics

  • Notre Dame: Yards/Rush 5.58, Rush Yards/Game 198.80
  • Duke: Yards/Rush 5.65, Rush Yards/Game 200.50

Both teams have potent rushing attacks, but Duke slightly edges out Notre Dame in terms of yards per rush and total rushing yards per game.

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Final Verdict

Alright, folks, let’s put on our big-boy pants and make a decision. My money’s on Duke +5.5 for several key reasons:

  • Defensive Matchup: Both teams have rock-solid defenses, but Duke’s defensive stats are particularly impressive, especially considering they’re the home team.
  • Turnover Game: Duke’s better turnover margin could turn out to be the game-changer here.
  • Rushing Attack: Duke’s ground game is a tad better, which could be crucial in a close game.
  • Home-Field Advantage: Duke is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games, a non-negligible factor.
  • Recent Form: Duke’s recent performance shows a 3-1 ATS record and a 4-0 straight-up record, indicating they’re in top form.

So there you have it. I’m laying my chips on Duke +5.5. Bet wisely, and may the odds be ever in your favor.

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