Penn State vs. Purdue Week 1 Odds & Predictions

by | Aug 22, 2022 | cfb

Penn State Nittany Lions (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

NCAA Week 1

Date/Time: Thursday September 1st, 2022. 8:00PM (EST)

Where: Ross-Ade Stadium West Lafayette, IN

TV: FOX

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: PSU -3/PUR +3 (BetOnline - Check out their 500K NFL handicapping contest!)

Total: 54.5

After racking up 42 wins, a Big Ten Championship, and a Fiesta Bowl victory from 2016-2019, the Penn State Nittany Lions have posted a modest 11-11 SU record over the last two seasons. Head Coach James Franklin did a tremendous job turning the Penn State program around following the bitter end to the Paterno era but perhaps for the first time in his career at Penn State, Franklin is feeling the pressure to produce after losing six of the last eight games during the 2021 season.

The good news for Nittany Lions fans is that the offense returns QB Sean Clifford and RB Keyvone Lee and has a talented group of receivers returning and incoming to the team this year. The bad news is that Penn State must replace nearly the entire offensive line and the majority of their back seven on the defensive side of the football. Needless to say, the 2022 season could be shaky out of the gates for Penn State, and that makes their opening road trip to Purdue more risky than most would imagine.

The Boilermakers posted their best season since 2003 last year with a 9-4 SU mark that was capped by a victory in the Music City Bowl. Following last year’s breakout season combined with a couple of solid recruiting campaigns, Head Coach Jeff Brohm is looking for the Boilermakers to take the next step and potentially become a dark horse in the Big Ten. Offensively, Purdue returns a talented QB in Aidan O’Connell and a host of receivers that will be looking to replace the departed David Bell, who was 2nd in the Big Ten in receiving last year. That said, Purdue still has some question marks in the run game and on the defensive side of the football that fans will be observing in their opening battle against Penn State. However, I would argue that Purdue has more answers going into the opener than their opponent, and perhaps that is the reason for the Nittany Lions are favored just a measly 3 points going into this opener.

Penn State vs. Purdue Betting Analysis

Opening games are always tricky to predict, but I like Purdue’s potential in this match-up. The Boilermakers’ strength on defense is along the defensive line, where they will get to pin their ears back against a brand new Penn State line. The Nittany Lions averaged just 3.2 yards per game on the ground last season, and that was a big reason for their late-season collapse. While I respect the service of QB Sean Clifford, I don’t think he has the weapons or talent to put this team on his back if they don’t get help with the ground game.

If the Boilermakers can consistently create long yardage situations and force 3rd downs, I believe the defense will get opportunities to make plays. If that happens and this becomes a game of back-and-forth possessions, I would also take my chances with the playmakers that Purdue has on the offensive side of the football. O’Connell is an underrated quarterback that is accurate and can spread the ball around. Furthermore, I think Purdue has an emerging group of receiving targets led by the likes of TE Payne Durham and WR Broc Thompson. While many have the receiving corps as a question mark with the losses of Bell, Milton Wright, and Jackson Anthrop, I think Purdue will be fine in the receiving game. However, like Penn State, there are still considerable question marks in the run game, and that could be a cause for concern, especially in close games.

Penn State vs. Purdue Betting Trends

  • Penn State is 2-6 SU in the last eight games
  • Penn State has hit the “under” in six of the last seven games
  • Penn State is 9-0 SU in the last nine games against Purdue
  • Penn State is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 games against Purdue
  • Purdue is 5-1 ATS in the last six games games
  • Purdue is 4-1 ATS in the last five games against conference opponents
  • Purdue has hit the “over” in four of the last five games
  • Purdue has hit the “under” in 9 of the last 12 meetings against Penn State

Penn State vs. Purdue Prediction

Again, I think early season games can be tricky, especially until teams understand what they have on the field. When I handicap early games, I always look for paths to victory. In my opinion, I believe Purdue has the most paths to victory in this game primarily because of the play of the offense. Penn State is going to need to show improvement, and I’m not convinced they will get that type of improvement out of the gates. I’m taking the Boilermakers for the outright victory. The points are just extra!

Jay’s Pick: Purdue +3. Did you know that you can move the line 20 points with a massive college football teaser at Wagerweb Sportsbook?

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