No. 2 TCU Horned Frogs (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS)
College Football Week 6
Date/Time: Saturday October 10th, 7:30PM EST
Where: Bill Snyder Family Stadium Manhattan, K.S.
TV: FOX
by Jay, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: TCU -9.5/KSU +9.5
Over/Under Total: 63.5
Last week the 2nd ranked TCU Horned Frogs handed Texas one of their worse losses in school history with a 50-7 thrashing down in Fort Worth. The offense was firing on all cylinders with 30 points in the first quarter and the defense did their part by shutting down an abysmal Texas offense. The massacre over the Longhorns moved TCU from number 4 to the runner-up spot in the AP Poll. This week the Horned Frogs will look to keep their momentum going on the road against Bill Snyder and the Kansas State Wildcats.
Kansas State suffered their first loss of the season last week in a 36-34 defeat on the road against no. 20 Oklahoma State. The Wildcats had their chances in that game leading 28-13 in the 2nd quarter and even driving for a potential game winning field goal in the closing minutes. However, quarterback Joe Hubener was intercepted by Oklahoma States Michael Hunter to seal the deal. The bigger storyline outside of the loss that emerged from the Oklahoma State game was the Wildcats continued issues with injuries at the quarterback position.
Hubener went down early in the Oklahoma State game and wide receiver Kody Cook had to take over behind center. Cook later took a hard hit forcing Hubener to come back into the game. Kansas State was already riddled with injuries at the quarterback position previously including injuries to 3 different quarterbacks and even 4th string quarterback Jonathan Banks fell ill before their matchup with the Cowboys leaving them even thinner at the position. Luckily for Kansas State, Hubener should be ready to go this week but they are still very thin at the position behind center.
Obviously Kansas State is going to have to find ways to score points considering the TCU offense that will be on the other side of the field is the 2nd best scoring team in the nation averaging 50.7 points per game. The Wildcats will likely try to run the ball as much as possible to limit the Horned Frogs touches. Snyder has kept the ball on the ground at a near 2:1 clip so far this season. Every quarterback that has played a snap has run the ball and freshman running back Justin Silmon is starting to become a focal point for the offense as well. Silmon rushed for 119 yards on 24 carries in the triple overtime victory over Louisiana Tech and I expect him to be given the ball often again this week. The success that Kansas State has running the football will likely determine how well they contend in this football game.
Of course the Kansas State defense is going to have their hands full with Trevone Boykin and company. Boykin is putting up Heisman type numbers with 1,802 passing yards with 19 touchdowns and just 3 picks through the first 5 games. To put things into perspective, that is 360 yards per game through the air with another 242 yards on the ground with 2 touchdowns.
As evident in last weeks stomping over Texas, the Horned Frogs offense has all the utensils to be deadly. WR Josh Doctson has been a nightmare to defense with 42 catches, 722 yards, and 8 touchdowns. Running back Aaron Green has been solid with 504 yards and 6 touchdowns. The offense is just so dangerous in so many ways that it is going to be difficult for any team to slow them down. Therefore this will go back to my words from earlier, Kansas State has to move the ball effectively on the ground to limit TCUs chances on offense. Oh and a turnover or two would be lovely for the Wildcats chances.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Both Kansas State and TCU have been great for bettors in recent seasons. TCU is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games while Kansas State is 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games. Even though TCU has not been quite as good on the road, I think they are just too much for the Wildcats as they earn another solid victory. Take TCU -9.5
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