Texas A&M Aggies (3-0 SU 2-1 ATS) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0 SU 2-1 ATS), Week 5 NCAA Football, Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK 7:30 PM ET, September 30, 2010 on ESPN/ESPN3
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Betting Odds: OSU -3.5 / Tex A&M +3.5
Over/Under Total: OFF
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This Thursday night in the ESPN game in a Big 12 match up the Oklahoma State Cowboys host the Texas A&M Aggies. This game may be a barnburner through the air, as the Cowboys have the nation’s 2nd ranked passing offense and the Aggies rank 15th. However, while the Aggies have a solid defense, ranking 10th in the nation the Cowboys simply do not ranking 78th.
Texas A&M has not beaten OSU since 2007.
Both of these teams had last week off and 2 weeks ago in their last games Texas A&M beat Florida International 27-20 and Oklahoma State crushed Tulsa 65-28 in an impressive offensive performance.
Even though the Cowboys do not have a great defense the Aggies cannot commit 5 turnovers like they did against Florida International even though they won the game.
The Aggies’ defense is solid and they will have their hands full in this game against a Cowboys’ offense that racked up 722 yards in the win over Tulsa including 574 passing yards.
This is the first Big 12 game for both of these teams and each team would love a win since each plays a tough conference schedule.
The Cowboys and their dynamic offense is led by QB Brandon Weeden, who passed for 409 yards with 6 TD and 0 INT in the win over Tulsa. OSU has a great WR corps, especially Justin Blackmon and Josh Cooper, who both averaged over 20 yards per reception in the Tulsa win.
While the Aggies’ defense is solid they are much better defending the run than the pass. Their pass D ranks 50th in the nation and in their last win to Florida International they looked pretty good only giving up 117 passing yards. However, they will not be able to contain OSU passing offense that has a ton of weapons.
The Cowboys rank 31st in the nation in rushing yards per game and they feature star RB Kendall Hunter, who rushed for 59 yards and also caught 3 passed for 59 yards in the win over Tulsa. He will be facing an Aggies’ run defense that ranks 4th in the nation.
Texas A&M’s offense is led by QB Jerrod Johnson and to say that he has to play better in this game than his last game is a major understatement. In the win over Florida International he did pass for 194 yards and had a TD, but he was only 11/31 and he had 4 INT. He will improve upon those numbers on Thursday against a suspect OSU pass defense that ranks 82nd in the nation and gave up 229 passing yards to Tulsa.
The Aggies have the nation’s 30th ranked rushing offense and their big gun in the backfield is RB Christine Michael, who had a good game against Florida International rushing for 119 yards with 1 TD and averaging a solid 5.7 yards per carry. He may be the key in this game, as if he can pick up yards and move the chains it will help keep the loaded offense of the Cowboys on the sidelines.
Michael will put up good numbers against a decent OSU rushing defense that ranks 55th in the nation.
The Aggies can score and have a good offense, but they will not be able to stop the Cowboys’ passing offense. Because of that the Aggies will air it out often to keep up and the Over is a good pick for this game even though Over/Under total has not been posted at time of print.
Texas A&M is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning home record, 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss, and has an Over record of 14-4-1 in their last 19 Big 12 games.
Oklahoma State is 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record and has an Under record of 5-2 in their last Big 12 games.
In the last 6 games between these 2 teams the total has gone Over 5 times.
Jason’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Defense will be the difference in this game. The Aggies will cover the spread and win this game straight up. Good luck!