Texas A&M Aggies (3-3 2-3-1 ATS) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-2 4-2 ATS) Jones AT&T Stadium Lubbock TX, 7 PM EST Saturday October 24, 2009
By Jason Green of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Aggies +21.5 / Red Raiders -21.5
In Big 12 match up this Saturday night the Red Raiders of Texas Tech host the Aggies of Texas A&M. The Red Raiders are only one win away from their longest home win streak in school history. In their 4 wins at home this season their offense has been awesome averaging 51.8 points per game. Tech has the 3rd ranked offense in the nation and their passing offense ranks No. 1. The Aggies also have a legit offense, but a weak defense.
They have lost 3 games in a row and in those losses they have given up an average of 48 points per game. Don’t look for a low scoring game in this affair, as it will be a shock if this game is NOT a shootout. Tech is in 2nd place in the Big 12 with only one loss, but after this game is their tough stretch, as they face Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma. The Aggies are 0-2 in the Big 12 and they have to start winning or they will not play in a bowl game this season.
Last week Texas Tech looked solid in their 31-10 win over then No. 15 Nebraska while Texas A&M was embarrassed losing to Kansas State 62-14.
To say the Aggies were dominated in their loss to Kansas State is a major understatement. The Aggies did have more passing yards, but were out-gained in rushing yards 232 to -13, had 15 less minutes in time of possession, and they committed 5 turnovers. The game was, pretty much, over by halftime, as Kansas State had a 38-0 lead. The score was 59-0 before the Aggies got on the board with 2 TD’s late in the 3rd quarter. The Aggies were favored by 5.5 points in the game so they just barely missed covering by 50 or so points.
In their win over Nebraska last week Texas Tech only had 19 more passing yards and were out-gained on the ground 70-25, but their D stepped up in the 2nd half and stuffed the Huskers. Tech scored 24 points in the first half and cruised to victory after halftime. The Red Raiders were aided by the Huskers, who had 2 turnovers in the game. The Red Raiders’ defense held Nebraska to 285 total yards. Tech was the underdog in this game by 11 points so they covered the spread and the posted total of 59 was not reached.
In both of the Red Raiders losses this season the teams were ranked in the top 25 and they were close games. They lost to then No. 2 Texas 34-24 and in their next game had a heartbreaking 29-28 loss to then No. 17 Houston.
Tech’s offense is on fire and they will be facing an Aggies’ D that ranks 94th in the nation. At least the Aggies are better at defending the pass, which they HAVE to do in this game, as they rank 73rd in the nation.
The Aggies have to pressure Tech QB Taylor Potts (1,817 yds 13 TD 6 INT) and not give him time to find his targets. The Aggies front line D is legit, as they have 17 sacks this season.
Potts had a concussion a few weeks back and Steven Sheffield
replaced him and reignited the Red Raiders offense, but Sheffied is out
for 2 weeks after a foot injury.
If the Red Raiders’ offensive line protects Potts Tech should have no problems winning this game.
The Aggies have a solid offense ranking 5th in the nation in total yards and 6th in passing yards per game led by QB Jerrod Johnson (1,893 yds 16 TD 3 INT). However, turnovers have killed them, as they have 10 lost turnovers including 5 in their last game. They can’t turn the ball over in this game or they will get killed.
The Tech D ranks 49th in the nation and they were great last week only allowing Nebraska to score 10 points. Where they are weak is their pass defense, which only ranks 89th in the nation.
Even though the Red Raiders have a better run defense than pass defense the Aggies must be able to run in this game, as if will keep the awesome offense of Texas Tech on the sidelines.
Jason’s Pick: The Red Raiders’ offense is flying high, no matter who the QB is, and the Aggies’ defense is struggling big time. Add those things together and you have a huge blowout on your hands, as I see the Red Raiders putting up a ton of points and easily winning this game and covering the spread.