Texas Longhorns (4-4 SU 2-6 ATS) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (5-3 SU 4-4 ATS) Week 10 NCAA Football, Bill Snyder Stadium, Manhattan KS 8 PM EST Saturday November 6, 2010 on ESPN2/ESPN3
by Jason Green of Predictem.com
Betting Odds: Tex -4/K. State +4
Over/Under Total: 46.5
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This season’s Texas Longhorns team is not the one we are used to seeing, as they are currently at .500, have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and are only 2-3 in the Big 12. They have a good chance to get back on track playing a Kansas State team that has also struggled recently. The Wildcats have lost 2 straight games and 3 of their last 4 after they began the season 4-0.
Kansas State lost last week to Oklahoma State 24-14 and Texas lost to Baylor 30-22, which was their first loss the Bears at home since the 1991 season.
The Longhorns are likely happy to be on the road since they have lost 3 straight home games for the first time since 1997. Turnovers have killed Texas this season and QB Garrett Gilbert has more INT’s than TD’s (9 to 6). In the loss to Baylor last week WR Marquis Goodwin fumbled on last drive, which allowed the Bears to run out the clock.
It is an understatement to say Kansas State has not played good D lately, as in their last 2 games they have given up almost 1,200 yards. Gilbert has put up good numbers this season and he had 231 passing yards in the loss to Baylor, but he is not getting much help from his receiving corps that has dropped many passes. INT’s have been Gilbert’s main problem this season, but in this game he will be facing a Kansas State secondary that only has 6 picks on the season. On top of that Gilbert will not pass the ball much since the Longhorns will look to pound the ball on the ground for most of the game.
Who will really have a good game this Saturday is any player that runs the ball for Texas. The Longhorns’ RB’s of Cody Johnson, Foswhitt Whittaker, and Tre’ Newton will get a lot of carries and pad their stats with big runs since the Kansas State rushing defense ranks dead last among FBS teams giving up an average of 228.50 rushing yards per game. How the hell can you win 5 games doing that? The Longhorns don’t have the best running team, but they will pick up a ton of yards in this game.
Kansas State will have to run the ball well in this game to win. They have the nation’s 25th ranked rushing offense led by RB Daniel Thomas, who was solid last week in the loss to Oklahoma State with 101 yards and 1 TD. He has rushed for at least 100 yards in 2 straight games and it will be 3 straight after this Saturday even though Texas has a legit run defense ranking 28th in the nation. The Wildcats will have to ride Thomas since their pass offense is not very good and Texas’ pass defense ranks 2nd in the nation. Sure, the Longhorns gave up 219 passing yards to Baylor last week, but the Bears have a great aerial attack while the Wildcats do not.
Last week Kansas State QB Carson Coffman passed for 170 yards with 0 TD and 2 INT facing an Oklahoma State pass defense that ranks 113th in the nation. He will struggle in this game and if he has to air it out the Wildcats will be in trouble.
The Longhorns have not been a good betting team for the last couple of seasons, as they have an ATS record of 2-9 in their last 11 games and an ATS record of 2-5 in their last 7 road games. They have also have only covered the spread one time in their last 5 games against Kansas State. However, don’t run out and bet the house on the Wildcats, as they have an ATS record of 1-4 in their last 5 home games and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams.
Jason’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Which Longhorns team will show up this Saturday? The one that’s looked really good at times or the one that’s lost to some very questionable teams? My bet is on K-State plus the points.
