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Big 12 Title: Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners Pick

by | Nov 27, 2018 | cfb

Texas Longhorns (9-3 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (11-1 SU, 4-7 ATS)

When: Saturday, December 1st, 2018 – 12:00 PM ET
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

Point Spread: TEX +7.5 / OU -7.5
Total: 78
Power Ratings: Oklahoma -8

Takeaways From Week 13

The Longhorns come into this game not looking all that impressive as they struggled to get past the lowly Kansas Jayhawks on the road last Saturday. As a 15.5-point favorite, the Longhorns defeated the Rock Chalks by a score of 24-17. In similar fashion to what occurred against KU’s cross-state nemesis previous to their meeting with Oklahoma on October 1st, Bevo may have taken the week off looking forward to locking horns with the Sooner Schooner.

The Sooners come in off a 59-56 win in Morgantown, West Virginia when they defeated the West Virginia Mountaineers in a top-ten match-up that was in essence a play-in fixture for the Big 12 Championship Game. Once again, quarterback Kyler Murray led the charge as he compiled nearly 500 yards of all-purpose yardage and five scores to catapult the Sooners into the College Football Playoff discussion.

How the Public is Betting the Texas-Oklahoma Game

Contrary to what we saw in the first meeting between these two outfits in October, the public has hopped aboard the Longhorns here with 55% taking the Hook-Ems with the touchdown-plus. It is worth annotating that the number presented is a notorious favorite number as it is designed to attract action on the chalk by virtue of the illusion of an easy win if the underdog loses by a touchdown. On another note, the Longhorns were priced similarly (+7) when they pulled the upset outright against the Sooners two months ago.

The Historicals

October’s Red River Showdown mirrored what has been the tendency for this series as a whole: settled by one possession. In the last meeting between the two sides, Oklahoma rallied from 21 down in the fourth quarter to catch the Longhorns and tie it at 45. However, Texas would win the game on a field goal with just nine seconds remaining to get the Burnt Orange the 48-45 victory.

Injury Concerns

Heading into this epic rivalry showdown for the Big 12 title, there are no key injuries to report on either roster.

When Texas Has the Ball

Oklahoma’s defense has been a subject of scrutiny as they have given up 40 points or more to the opposition in each game they played the past month. Texas should find success against the 127th ranked passing defense (286.6 yards per game) with a seasoned gunslinger in quarterback Sam Ehlinger distributing the ball to a talented corps of receivers, including 1,000-yard man Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Colin Johnson, and Devin Duvernay. The Longhorns score 31.7 points per game (46th nationally).

When Oklahoma Has the Ball

There is no better team in all of America when it comes to total offense than the Sooners as they accumulate a remarkable 584.2 yards per game. The Sooners also score the most points in the FBS as they average an insane 50.3 points per game. Oklahoma attacks opponents from all angles as they love to establish balance with an equal dose of the pass and run. Both OU’s passing and rushing offenses stand eighth in America overall. Undoubtedly, the Sooners passing attack which goes for 319.4 yards per game through the air will test Texas’ 104th ranked passing defense that gives up 255.8 yards per game.

Betting Trends

One betting trend that will enchant a lot of action on the Longhorns is the fact that Texas has covered successfully in the last six meetings between these two bitter foes. In each of these contests, the Horns were also the underdog. For Total market players, the Over is also 6-0 ATS in the previous six collisions.

Weather Report

The weather will have little effect on this game as the conditions will always be favorable because AT&T Stadium features a retractable roof. With this being said, conditions are expected to be pleasant with partly cloudy skies and temperatures hovering around 65 degrees. Chances are the roof will be open.

Keith Pick to Cover the Spread: Oklahoma -7.5

Make no mistake about this one, the market did not give away the Longhorns on a Cyber Monday deal. Nevertheless, the betting public is treating this spot as such. However, the assessment and evaluation by oddsmakers shows a lack of faith that Texas can get it done again defeating Oklahoma twice in the same year. In fairness, that is hard for any team to do. However, if you need material as to why Oklahoma is the favorite all you have to do is look at the fourth quarter of the last Red River Showdown. Still, Texas looks like easy money here with respect to their success against the spread in the rivalry series as of late and of course the aforementioned upset. However, Oklahoma has caught a lot flack for the way they performed as of late on the defensive side of the ball and given the fact they have a blueprint for success to stop this Texas offense when it needed to, in order to avoid getting their doors blown off on October 1st. As a result, there is a good chance that OU’s defense plays its best inning this season. On the contrary, no one has had an answer for Kyler or for this Oklahoma offense and a few stops by OU’s defense will translate into a blowout. That’s how we will play this one.
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