No. 6 Texas Longhorns (2-0 SU 0-2 ATS) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-0 SU 2-0 ATS) Week 3 NCAA Football, Jones AT&T Stadium Lubbock Texas 8:00 PM ET, September 18, 2010 on ABC
by Jason Green of Predictem.com
Betting Odds: UT -3/TT +3
Over/Under Total: 51
On Saturday night in a Big 12 match up the Texas Tech Red Raiders host the 6th ranked Texas Longhorns. The winner of this game will have bragging rights for the Lone Star State and they will also take an early lead in the conference.
Texas Tech will be the first test for Texas and they will have to play great defense against the Red Raiders and their high-octane offense. If Tech can win this game they will have a good chance to get off to a great start in conference play, as in their next few conference games they play the tough teams of Missouri and Oklahoma State at home and do not face Oklahoma until the 3rd to last game of the season.
Last Saturday these teams both had easy times coming out with a victory, as Texas Tech crushed New Mexico 52-17 and Texas beat Wyoming 34-7.
Both teams are 2-0, but while Tech has covered the spread in both of their games Texas has yet to cover the spread once this season.
The Longhorns were solid on offense in their win over Wyoming with 222 passing yards and 167 rushing yards. The Texas offense is led by QB Garrett Gilbert, who 22/35 for 222 yards with 1 TD and 0 INT in the Wyoming win.
The Red Raiders have had major issues in the secondary giving up a combined total of over 550 yards in their first 2 games. They will have to step up against Gilbert and a solid Texas WR corps that had 8 different receivers catch a pass in the win over Wyoming.
The Longhorns also ran the ball well last week rushing for 167 yards led by the RB duo of Foswhitt Whittaker, who will be the main back in the Tech game, and Cody Johnson.
The Red Raiders’ defense is obviously not the strength of their team and if they cannot play solid pass and run defense their offense may have to light up the scoreboard to have any chance to win.
The Texas Tech offense ranks 11th in the nation is passing (334.5 yards per game) and 17th in scoring (43.5 points per game) and are led by QB Taylor Potts. Potts had a stellar game against New Mexico passing for 293 yards with 3 TD and 0 INT. You have to take his numbers with a grain of salt, as New Mexico gave up 72 points to Oregon 2 weeks ago before getting crushed by Texas Tech last week. Potts has a few solid WR options.
Texas gave up 199 passing yards last week to Wyoming and they will be tested, big time this week, against Potts and a great passing attack of Tech.
The Red Raiders rushed for 152 yards in last week’s win over New Mexico and they will have to gain some yards on the ground against Texas so they do not stack the D to contain Potts.
The Texas Tech offensive line is key for them in this game, as they have to protect Potts and keep the Longhorns’ front line defense from getting to him. If they can open up some holes for the rushing game it also gives the Red Raiders a good chance to pull off the upset. However, Texas has a good pass rush and look for them to wreak havoc in the Tech backfield.
Potts will put up some solid numbers, but the Tech defense will not be able to stop Texas from putting up a ton of points.
The Longhorns are is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games, and have an Over record in their last 5 Big 12 games.
The Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win, and have an Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 Big 12 games.
In the last 4 games between these 2 teams at Texas Tech the total has gone Over every time.
Jason’s pick to cover the point spread: I’m calling for an upset in a game that won’t have as many points scored as most think. Take the Red Raiders to get the money!