Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Kansas State Wildcats Point Spread – Pick Against the Spread

No. 14 Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS) vs. No. 3 Kansas State Wildcats (7-0 SU, 5-1-1 ATS)
College Football Week 9
Date/Time: Saturday October 27th, 2012. 3:30PM Eastern
Where: Bill Snyder Stadium Manhattan, K.S.
by Jay, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: TTU +7/KSU -7
Over/Under Total: OFF

Last week Collin Klein and the Kansas State Wildcats completely
demolished no. 13 West Virginia 55-14. For Klein, it was one of the best
big game performances in college football this year considering the senior
quarterback threw for 323 yards with 3 touchdowns while completing 19 of
21 passing against the Mountaineers. Not only was it a big performance by
Klein but the breakout game came against Geno Smith’s Mountaineers’ who
most considered a frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy. Not only has Klein
proved that he is every bit as worthy for the Heisman Trophy talk, but Kansas
State proved as a team that they are ready for the national spotlight. Don’t
look now but Bill Snyder’s Wildcats are in the midst of the National Championship
hunt. However, one of the Wildcats toughest challengers roll into Manhattan
this week when Tommy Tuberville’s 14th ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders
attempt to knock Kansas State from the ranks of the unbeaten teams in college

The Red Raiders have flown under the radar in the Big 12 this year partially as a result from a disappointing loss against Oklahoma 41-20 three weeks ago. However, Texas Tech also blew out West Virginia 49-14 to hand the Mountaineers their first loss of the season when they were ranked number 5 in the country and then withstood a triple overtime threat against no.23 TCU last week 56-53.If you consider how strong Oklahoma has played since their only loss to Kansas State, the Red Raiders have an impressive body of work with Oklahoma as their only loss. The Red Raiders currently have the 11th best total offense in college football averaging 516 yards per game while sporting the 4th best passing attack in college football averaging 361 yards per game. Perhaps those numbers are pretty average for a normal potent Big 12 offense but the Red Raiders are also getting things done on the defensive side of the ball as well.

Texas Tech currently sports the 7th best defense on paper in the country allowing just 282 yards per game. Similar to Kanas State, the Red Raiders defense held Geno Smith and the Mountaineers’ offense to just 14 points. In Texas Tech’s only loss this year, QB Seth Doege tossed 3 picks in an ugly loss to Oklahoma and basically kept their defense in bad situations. However, this Red Raiders defense can hold their own if given the opportunity.

Doege is the guy that Texas Tech really depends on to keep the offense going and has played really well to this point in the year outside of the Oklahoma debacle. Over the last two weeks, Doege has tossed 13 touchdowns and just 1 pick. Not to mention the Red Raiders quarterback is hitting over 70% of his passes this season. Oklahoma’s Landry Jones was able to move the ball fairly well against the Wildcats throwing for 300 yards but 3 turnovers kept the Sooners from capturing the victory. I bring up that fact because Texas Tech has a lot of similarities on their offense compared to Oklahoma in talent and play call. Therefore, it is really important that Doege and the Red Raiders protect the football. Texas Tech’s offense is talented enough in the pass and on the ground to keep pressure on the Wildcats defense but turnovers would likely spoil their efforts towards an upset.

For the Wildcats, they do not have any eye popping numbers on paper. Still, Kansas State has moved the football well averaging 434 yards per game (42nd in FBS) and played solid defense holding opponents to just 325 yards per game (23rd in FBS). Klein has been very efficient throwing the football by completing 70.5% passing this season for 1,397 yards with 10 scores and just 2 picks. However if you have not seen Kansas State play, they are an atypical Big 12 offense that likes to run the football. In fact, the Wildcats not only lead the Big 12 in rushing but rank 14th nationally averaging 233 yards per game on the ground. Running back John Hubert has posted 658 yards this season with 8 touchdowns and Klein has added an impressive 551 yards with 14 touchdowns on the ground as well. Kansas State has been able to run the ball effectively on every opponent this season and it will be interesting to see if the talented Red Raiders defense can stifle that rushing attack.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I really think Texas Tech matches
up well in this game. They should be able to move the football fairly well
and I expect the Red Raiders to stand strong against the run. This should
be a back and forth game that is very close. The Red Raiders are 5-1 SU
in the last 6 games against Kansas State and 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
This game doesn’t offer a heck of a lot of wagering value, but if forced to take a side, I’d be on Texas Tech at +7.

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