Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Oklahoma Sooners Betting Odds and Pick to Cover the Point Spread


Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-4 SU 3-5-1 ATS) vs. No. 16 Oklahoma Sooners (7-2 SU 4-5 ATS) Week 11 NCAA Football, Oklahoma Memorial Stadium Norman OK, 3:30 PM EST Saturday November 13, 2010 on ABC / ESPN3
by Jason Green of Predictem.com

Betting Odds: TT +15/OKL -15
Over/Under Total: 63.5

In a Big 12 match up on Saturday afternoon the Texas Tech Tech Red Raiders play host to the Oklahoma Sooners, who lost their last game, but still have a shot to win the Big 12 South. OU still has a chance to play in the conference title game and they are in control of their destiny, but beating a confident Texas Tech team, which upset Missouri last week, as well as beating Baylor and Oklahoma State on the road in their last 2 games is no easy task.

Last week Texas Tech scored a big upset beating Missouri 24-17 and Oklahoma was on the other side of the upset fence losing to unranked Texas A&M 33-19.

Tech really improved their chances to get a decent bowl with last week’s win and can become bowl eligible with a win this Saturday. The Red Raiders went against the grain last week, as their mediocre rushing offense racked up 198 yards on the ground and their 118th ranked pass defense held Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert to only 12/30 passing for 95 yards.

Texas Tech has won 3 of their last 5 games, but can their secondary step up against Sooners’ QB Landry Jones and the OU passing offense, which is ranked 6th in the nation? That is the big question for this game. Jones has passed for over 2,800 yards and has 22 TD this season and he will pad those stats by exposing the weak Red Raiders’ pass defense. Yeah, the Red Raiders held Blaine Gabbert to under 100 passing yards, but the Missouri QB looked out of tune and his WR’s dropped a few balls that should have been caught.

Jones’ main target WR Ryan Broyles only caught 8 passes for 59 yards in the loss to Texas A&M and he needs to have a big game and make some plays. He will do just that much like he did last season against Tech when he had 117 receiving yards.

Oklahoma RB DeMarco Murray did have 80 rushing yards and 67 receiving yards against A&M, but he only averaged 3.2 yards per carry. He has struggled running the ball for the last few games and he will get back on track facing a Tech run defense that ranks a respectable 54th in the nation, but last week allowed Mizzou to rush for 260 yards.

Texas Tech QB Taylor Potts has passed for over 2,500 yards this season, but did not start in last week’s win over Missouri. However, he came in and was exactly the spark the Red Raiders needed passing for 188 yards with 3 TD and 1 INT. He will likely not see the bench again unless he is injured. WR’s Lyle Leong and Detron Lewis will be a handful for an OU secondary that gave up 225 passing yards last week. The Sooners have faced a few teams that have good aerial attacks and did not fare well and that will continue in this game, as Potts will put up some good numbers.

Red Raiders’ RB Baron Batch rushed for a season high 134 yards last week against Missouri, but he will not crack the 100-yard barrier against Oklahoma in their house. Potts will have to carry the offense, as the Sooners have played great run defense when they are at home this season.

For the Red Raiders, they will have to get into a shootout to win since I just don’t see them playing good defense in this game. In their 3 Big 12 road games this season they are 1-2 and have given up an average of 41 points per game.

Heading into this Big 12 game Texas Tech is 3-5-1 ATS and Oklahoma is 4-5 ATS. The Sooners have an ATS record of 5-2 in their last 7 games against Texas Tech at home and the home team has covered the spread in the last 4 games between these 2 teams. Even with a big 15-point spread OU has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games and Texas Tech is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog.

Jason’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: OK, so the Sooners lost last week and the Red Raiders won. However, I think those games will not be repeated, as the Red Raiders will not play good pass defense and the Sooners will stuff the run. The Sooners know they have to win to keep their BCS hopes alive and that is motivation enough as well as the fact they are in Norman. Oklahoma will come out and play great after last week’s upset loss and steamroll Texas Tech and cover the spread.