Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-4 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. TCU Horned Frogs (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
College Football Week 9
Date and Time: Saturday, October 25th, 3:30pm EST
Where:Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
by Bob, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: TTU +22.5/TCU -22.5
Over/Under Total: 70
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When you talk about great Big 12 match-ups, you typically think about Oklahoma and Texas, or Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. Well, in 2014, we have a new sheriff in town, and it is the TCU Horned Frogs. This team is good, really good. This Saturday, those very same 10th ranked, TCU Horned Frogs will take on the 3-4 Texas Tech Red Raiders. Most will assume this game should be a cake walk for a team in the top 10, but when it comes to Big 12 football, we can all agree…you never know.
The spread on this game opens with TCU as a 22.5 point favorite and I agree that this line seems to be about right on paper. The total points for this contest are set at 70 which is typical for a Big 12 game between teams with great passing offenses. 22.5 points are a lot so lets make sure we do not get too caught up in this TCU hype, and lets get a real good idea of which side to lean here.
TCU is a great team, and if they keep winning, they have a realistic shot of being in college football’s final four. They have already tallied huge wins over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and their only loss this season was an crazy shootout against Baylor that came down to the wire with a 61-58 final. The Frogs are no stranger to success. Just a few years ago, coach Gary Patterson, and quarterback, Andy Dalton, the Horned Frogs shocked the college football world by beating Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl and finishing the season 13-0. Now, TCU resides in a Power Five Conference, and an 11-1 finish and conference title could have them primed for a chance at the ultimate prize. In order to keep this great run going, TCU is going to have to play sound defense and slow down the Red Raiders offensive attack. TCU is strong both offensively and defensively. They rank 9th in the nation in passing yards, and are also averaging 195 yards a game on the ground. The defense is just as strong. The Frogs are only giving up 20 points a game which is good for a top 30 ranking. If TCU can keep the Texas Tech scoring to a minimum, this could go down as another great win for them.
Texas Tech will travel into Fort Worth as heavy underdogs. Statistically, they do not stack up to the TCU team, but one thing we know in Big 12 football is that it is anyone’s game on any given Saturday afternoon. Just like usual, the Red Raiders are ranked in the top ten in passing yards. Led by QB, Davis Webb, the Red Raiders are gaining around 330 yards a game through the air. Not only does Webb already have over 2,200 yards passing, but he also has 22 touchdown passes. Those are good numbers, but one blemish in the stat book is the fact that he has already thrown 12 interceptions as well. If Texas Tech is going to go in and pull this upset, ball protection is a must. If you allow TCU to get cheap turnovers, and good starting field position, they will take advantage and make you regret each and every mistake. Along with protecting the ball, and airing it out against the Horned Frogs, Texas Tech needs to improve on defense. The Red Raiders are ranked 116th in points allowed in 2014. If the coaching staff doesnt do something to correct that, and fast, this game could be a laugher.
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: 22.5 points is a lot for a conference game, but it is warranted. TCU is one of the best teams in the nation, and that is not just a statement, it is 100% fact. This team plays hard and disciplined on both sides of the ball and they do not make mistakes. However, Texas Tech can play some offense, and can flat out score. I am not going to throw any trends out there, and I am going to make this pick strictly on my gut feeling. TCU will get the win, but I think the Red Raiders make things interesting. Look for a 40-30 TCU win. PICK TEXAS TECH +22.5 POINTS!