Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Texas Longhorns (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS)
College Football Week 12
Date/Time: Thursday November 26th, 7:30PM EST
Where: Memorial Stadium Austin, T.X.
by Jay, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: TTU +2/TEX -2
Over/Under Total: 75
On Thanksgiving Day, the Texas Tech Red Raiders and the Texas Longhorns will meet inside Memorial Stadium for a chance to claim the Chancellors Spurs. For the Red Raiders season finale, they need a victory to become bowl eligible. However, history has not been the side of the Red Raiders in this rivalry. In the last 16 years, Texas Tech has scored just 2 victories over their big brother with the most recent win coming back in 2008. This Thursday Texas Tech will try to end a 6 game losing streak to the Longhorns as they go into Austin as mere 2 point underdogs.
It is no secret that the Red Raiders have struggled in games against Texas. They have been beat by a minimum of 9 points in each contests the last 6 years while going 0-6 ATS in those games as well. However, this week could be different as Texas Tech will get their chance at a vulnerable 4-6 SU Texas team. The Red Raiders 3rd ranked offense can move the football with ease and they will set their sights on a Texas defense that ranks 93rd giving up 428 yards per game.
Texas Techs offense is loaded with talent and should be able to keep Texass defense on their heels hence the reason the total is listed at 75 for this game. Red Raiders quarterback Patrick Mahomes has completed 65% passing on the year for 3,911 yards with 31 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Star wide out Jakeem Grant has been the recipient to the majority of those passes. Grant has hauled in 78 catches for 1,038 yards and 6 touchdowns on the season. Grants yardage total nearly doubles all other Texas Tech receivers but Mahomes does a good job of spreading the ball around accurately.
Texas Tech has averaged a whopping 588 yards of total offense this season with 391 coming by way of the passing game. Running back DeAndre Washington has been excellent on the ground. Washington has racked up 1,282 yards with 12 touchdowns to lead the Red Raiders rushing attack. Texas Tech primarily looks to spread the ball around but Washington has been able to bust open big runs when defenses lose focus on the Texas Tech ground game. Considering the way Texas has struggled on defense this year, I expect Texas Techs balance to provide more big plays again this Thursday.
It seems like this game could be a huge mismatch considering how dominate Texas Tech has been on offense compared to the Longhorns inability to stop anyone on defense. However for every strength the Red Raiders show on offense, they are completely opposite on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, only Kansas has given up more yards on average than the Red Raiders this season at a miserable clip of 548 yards per game. Texas has not shown a ton of hope on the offensive side of the football averaging just 24.9 (95th in FBS) points per game.
However, the Longhorns can run the football fairly well which is exactly what Texas Techs defense cannot stop which just happens to be another reason the total for this game is listed at a lofty 75 points. DOnta Freeman and quarterback Jerrod Heard have combined for more than 1,200 yards rushing with 8 touchdowns on the season while senior Johnathan Gray has added support as well. On average, Texas is producing 213 yards per game on the ground compared to the fact Texas Tech has relinquished 259 yards per game as one of the worse run stop units in college football. Therefore it is easy to say that the offenses should have the upper hand in this game each time they are on the field.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I know history tells us that Texas would be the play here but I simply think Texas Techs offense will be too much to handle. The Red Raiders will score enough points to put pressure on Texass offense to throw the football and get them out of their comfort zone on the ground. Take Texas Tech +2!
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