Toledo Rockets vs. Eastern Michigan Eagles Pick 11/18/20

by | Nov 17, 2020 | cfb

Toledo Rockets (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Eastern Michigan Eagles (0-2 SU, 2-0 ATS)

When: Wednesday, November 18, 7 p.m.

Where: Rynearson Stadium, Ypsilanti, Mich.

TV: CBSSN

Point Spread: TOL -7/EMU +7 (Bovada - The BEST live betting platform on the web! Check it out! There are NO comparisons even close!)

Total: O/U 60

Outlook

At some point, Eastern Michigan is going to breakthrough. The Eagles are doing an excellent job of competing with better squads, but they haven’t found a way to get that elusive win yet. Of course, that could be partly because Eastern is the one MAC school that hasn’t been able to play at home in 2020. The Eagles now get to play three of their final four games at home, and playing on their gray turf might be what they need to finally get into the win column.

For Toledo, the question is how the Rockets will respond to the way their game with Western Michigan ended. Toledo had the game won, only to see the Broncos steal it with two touchdowns in the final 45 seconds of the contest, thanks to an onside kick. A loss like that can be devastating, particularly given the fact that a win would have put Toledo in the driver’s seat for the MAC Western Division crown, given that they end the season at home against Central Michigan. Instead, the Rockets now have to run the table and hope for some help, and they’ve got to go to the other side of Michigan now to face a team that badly needs a win. Can they keep their faint hopes of a division title alive?

How the Public is Betting the Toledo/Eastern Michigan Game

The tickets are coming in on Toledo, but the money is coming in on Eastern Michigan. Sixty-nine percent of tickets are on the Rockets, but Eagles’ money has pushed the line down from +7.5 to +7. The total has ticked up from 58.5 to 59.

Injury Concerns

Toledo:
Offensive lineman Lavel Dumont is out for the season with a leg injury. Running back Shakif Seymour is questionable with an undisclosed issue, and defensive tackle Cavon Butler is ineligible and out for the season.

Eastern Michigan:
Wide receivers Hassan Beydoun and Dylan Drummond and running back Darius Boone Jr. are questionable with undisclosed issues.

When Toledo Has the Ball

There’s not question that the Rockets can score and score quickly. Any time you can average over 500 yards of offense through two games, that’s an impressive number, even if you’re playing two weak opponents. Toledo opened with one but then moved the ball just as easily on Western Michigan as it did on Bowling Green. A large part of that is because Eli Peters has come into his own as the Toledo quarterback, mostly by making smart decisions and not trying to do too much. Peters is perfectly happy to take the safe completion to running back Bryant Koback when it’s available and hit Isaiah Winstead or Bryce Mitchell for the deep play when that opens up.

However, Toledo’s main identity will continue to be that of a running team, as Koback is likely to get most of the work. That’s even more true with Seymour questionable and Eastern really struggling to stop the ground game. The Eagles were shredded by both Kent State and Ball State on the ground, and Toledo would love nothing more than to pound the ball from start to finish in this contest. The Rockets average 236 yards a game on the ground, and they won’t hesitate to take what they think they can get against the Eagle defense. Another big offensive day could be in the cards here.

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When Eastern Michigan Has the Ball

The ground game has got to be better for Eastern Michigan. The Eagles might have hung on to their lead against Ball State had they been able to stay on the field in the second half with a solid running game. Instead, Eastern found itself helplessly watching as Ball State overcame a two-touchdown deficit and took control of the game in the second half, leaving the Eagles with their second straight frustrating loss.

The good news for the Eagles is that they have a solid passing game behind Preston Hutchinson, but the bad news is that Hassan Beydoun might not be able to play, which would leave the Eagles with just one of their top two receivers. Tanner Knue has done an excellent job making himself a real contributor in this offense, but he can’t do it alone. Nor can Eastern rely on its ground game to get it out of a hole, as Hutchinson is the leading rusher in terms of both touches and yardage. Seeing as how he only averages 3.1 yards per carry, that’s not a good thing. If Knue isn’t getting free, this could be a spot of trouble for the Eagles. Tight end Bryson Cannon will need to step up the way he did against Ball State for Eastern to have a chance.

Betting Trends

This series has been one-way traffic for years, as Toledo has won 12 of the last 13 meetings with Eastern Michigan. However, the teams have traditionally played tight games in recent years. The past three meetings in this series were all decided by five points or less, including Eastern’s two-point win over Toledo in 2018 in Ypsilanti.

Plus, Toledo isn’t exactly a strong road team. The Rockets have now failed to cover in seven consecutive games away from the Glass Bowl, and the Eagles have been sharp at staying within the number in conference play. Eastern has covered in five of its past six games overall and four of five in the MAC, and the Eagles have been fantastic as a cover team when they’re an underdog. In its last 31 games as a dog, Eastern has covered on 24 occasions. That includes both games this season, where Eastern wasn’t favored and got the cover without getting the win.

For the total, recent history is suggesting to go with the over, but history in this rivalry says otherwise. Toledo has hit the over in six of its past eight games, but it’s only done so in two of its past seven in Ypsilanti.

Weather Report

Winds will blow south at around 10 miles per hour, but that’s about the only concern with the weather here on a clear, chilly night. Temperatures should be approximately 35 degrees at kickoff.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Eastern Michigan is doing a great job of staying in each game that it plays, and the Eagles’ offense can move the ball reasonably well through the air. Eventually, a win is going to come, and it could very well happen in this game, especially with Toledo likely to be a bit down after blowing a certain win against Western Michigan.

I won’t pick the Eagles to win this game outright, but it certainly wouldn’t shock me. At any rate, this appears to be too many points, and I’ll back Eastern Michigan to cover. Bet your Week 12 college football picks FREE by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at BetNow Sportsbook! Credit cards work there!