Tulane Green Wave (2-5 SU, 1-5 ATS) vs. LSU Tigers (6-1 SU, 3-3-1 ATS), 8:00 p.m. EST, Saturday, October 31, 2009, Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, La.
by Ryno of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Tulane +35/LSU -35
LSU is 10 points away from being undefeated right now and in the mix for the National Championship, but the Tigers lost 13-3 to Florida on October 10. Now, the Tigers will try to salvage their season next week when they play at undefeated Alabama. But first, they have to get past the Tulane Green Wave.
LSU has some decent wins this season, but no spectacular wins. The Tigers defeated Washington, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and Georgia, all by 14 points or less. Last week, they won 31-10 over Auburn.
In the win over Auburn, quarterback Jordan Jefferson threw for 242 yards and two touchdowns. Terrance Toliver and Brandon LaFell each caught a touchdown pass for the Tigers. But the Tigers got the job done on defense, forcing three turnovers and holding Auburn to just 193 total yards of offense.
In the loss to Florida, LSU had only 162 total yards of offense. Jefferson had just 96 passing yards and an interception.
LSU’s defense has been carrying the load for the Tigers. They are allowing just 177 passing yards per game while intercepting 10 passes. The Tigers will allow some rushing yards, however, as they are giving up 127 yards per game on the ground.
LSU has 917 rushing yards this season, led by Charles Scott, who has 347 rushing yards and two touchdowns. The Tigers should have some success against Tulane, a team that is giving up 195.6 rushing yards per game. The Green Wave have allowed 18 rushing touchdowns and 4.6 yards per carry.
Tulane is just 2-5 this season, but the Green Wave have had some tough opponents. They opened the season with a loss to Tulsa, a team that nearly upset Boise State. Then, they lost to BYU, a one-loss team that was ranked in the top 10. After back-to-back wins over McNeese State and Army, the Green Wave lost 31-10 to Marshall, a team they could have defeated. In the last two games, Tulane lost to Houston, a nationally ranked one-loss team, and Southern Miss, a team that defeated Virginia and almost beat both Kansas and Louisville. Tulane’s record isn’t impressive, but it has played some tough opponents. The Green Wave still got blown out in five of their losses by at least 21 points, but at least they got some experience facing teams on a similar level as LSU.
Tulane’s offense is led by running back Andre Anderson, who has 646 rushing yards and six touchdowns this season. Quarterback Joe Kemp has thrown for 1,007 yards, four touchdowns and six interceptions. His main target is Jeremy Williams, who has 44 receptions for 662 yards and three touchdowns.
LSU is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games. The Tigers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. The total has gone under in five of their last six games. Tulane is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games. The Green Wave are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and 1-8 SU in their last nine road games. The total has gone under in each of Tulane’s last five road games. LSU won 35-10 over Tulane last season.
Ryno’s Pick: LSU is obviously a much better team than Tulane and will certainly win this game, but the question is how much the Tigers will win by. They won by 25 over Tulane in each of the last two seasons, and the Tigers probably have a weaker team this season. The biggest factor is that they will be looking ahead to playing at Alabama next week. Because of that, they likely won’t play as hard throughout the whole game. They know they will beat Tulane. Getting ready for Alabama will be more important to them. LSU’s run defense has been mediocre this season, so Anderson should be able to pick up some yardage and limit LSU’s scoring. The Tigers are favored by 35 and they haven’t even scored 35 points in a game this season. The most they scored was 31 on three different occasions. Given the fact that Tulane has gone under in its last five road games and LSU has gone under in five of its last six games, the under is a safe play as well, but Tulane should be able to stay within the number. Take Tulane +35.