UNLV Running Rebels vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Pick

by | Dec 9, 2020 | cfb

UNLV Running Rebels (0-5 SU, 0-4-1 ATS) vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (3-4, 3-4), 12/12/20
Time: 11 pm ET Saturday, Dec. 12
Where: Aloha Stadium

Point spread: UNLV +21/Haw -21 (Bovada - The most incredible live betting platform on the web! Check it out! It’s freakin’ awesome!)

Money line: Rebels +850/Warriors -1665

Over/Under: 58.5

This abbreviated college football season comes to an end for a pair of Mountain West squads when Hawaii and UNLV meet Saturday night in Honolulu. The Rainbow Warriors are shooting to finish .500 in their first season under Coach Graham while the Rebels are trying to avoid finishing winless in their first season under Coach Arroyo. The Rainbows are favored by three touchdowns for this one; who do we like here for our free college football pick?

College Football Betting Odds

College football betting odds opened Hawaii at -21.5 over UNLV, with an over/under of 58.5. Early betting action then dropped the hook off that line.

Rebels Betting Preview

UNLV remains winless on the season, its first under Coach Arroyo, after losing at home to Wyoming two weeks ago 45-14. The Rebels then had last week’s scheduled game against Boise State canceled.

UNLV gave up a 78-yard Cowboys touchdown run one minute into the game two weeks ago, trailed 17-0 early in the second quarter and 17-7 into halftime. The Rebs then gave up touchdowns on Wyoming’s first four possessions of the second half, fading to defeat both SU and ATS as 17-point dogs.

The Rebels got out-gained by the Cowboys 498-290, outrushed 399-132, and lost the turnover battle 2-0, resulting in a -14 points differential. Just enough to make the difference against the spread.

UNLV has now been out-gained and out-rushed in every game this season, often by large margins.

Two games ago, the Rebels only trailed still-unbeaten San Jose State 24-17 late into the third quarter, lost 34-17 but held on to push the spread as 17-point dogs. Three games ago, UNLV played Fresno State, which is 3-2 on the season, to a 27-27 tie through three quarters, before giving up the last 13 points of the game to lose 40-27. And four games ago, the Rebs only trailed Nevada, which is 6-1, by one score into the fourth quarter, before falling 37-19.

So UNLV has had some chances to make some money; it’s just coming up a bit short late in games.

At 0-5 overall, the Rebels are just looking to create some positive vibes of some kind heading toward next season.

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Meanwhile, Hawaii just dropped back below .500 on the season, losing at home to San Jose State last week 35-24. The Warriors, coming off an upset of Nevada two weeks ago, fell down to the Spartans 21-0 nine minutes into the game but rallied to within 21-10 by the half. Hawaii then scored the first seven points out of the locker to get within 21-17 but faded from there and couldn’t cover as a three-point dog.

The Rainbows got out-gained by San Jose State 468-339 and out-rushed 288-101. So Hawaii has now been out-gained in each of its last four games and out-rushed in five of its previous six games.

Two weeks ago, as mentioned above, the Rainbows handed Nevada its only loss of the season, a 24-21 upset as seven-point dogs. But just prior to that, Hawaii lost at home to Boise State 40-32, and that game wasn’t quite as close as that final score might indicate.

At 3-4 on the season, the Rainbows hope to win Saturday to finish at .500.

These two teams have played five common opponents this season; Hawaii is 2-3 both SU and ATS against San Jose State, Wyoming, Fresno State, Nevada, and San Diego State, while UNLV is 0-5 SU, 0-4-1 ATS vs. those five foes. Also, the Rainbows averaged -49 yards per game against those five opponents, the Rebels -169.

Rebels-Warriors Recent History

UNLV beat Hawaii three times in a row from 2015-17, but the Rainbows are 2-0 both SU and ATS over the last two meetings. Last year Hawaii spotted the Rebels the first seven points of the game, then scored the last 21 to win 21-7 and cover at -6.5.

Also, that game played way, way under a total of 72.

Totals Report

Unders are 3-2 in Rebels games this season, which are averaging 55 total points.

Unders are 5-2 in Warriors games this season, which are also averaging 55 points.

Free College Football Pick

Hawaii is the better team here and should win this game without too much problem. However, playing at home probably means the spread on this game is inflated by half a touchdown or so. Meanwhile, UNLV is struggling in its first season under its new coaching regime, but the Rebels have actually kept three of their last four games close, at least through three quarters. If they can just get a full four-quarter effort, they can keep this one close, too. We don’t often recommend betting on 0-5 teams, but we’re taking UNLV and the points. Bet your Week 15 college football picks FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! Must use bonus code PREDICT100 when signing up to get the bonus credited!