Virginia at Wake Forest
Saturday, October 31, 2026
3:45 PM ET, Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, Winston-Salem, NC
Wake Forest is a 12.5-point favorite over Virginia with the total at 49.5, and my play is Under 49.5 (-112).
“More than happy to grind it out and kind of do it the old-fashioned way.” That’s Jake Dickert describing Virginia this week, and he’s being polite. The Cavaliers don’t just like slow games. They need them. Virginia has scored 16 or fewer points in three of its last four, and the last two have stayed under the total by 15.5 and 12.5 points. Everybody wants to bet on Wake’s offense here. I’m betting on how this game will look.
Virginia’s offense is stuck in the mud. Beau Pribula went 15-of-24 for 158 yards with two turnovers in the 19-16 loss to Duke, and he hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in two weeks. His best receiver, Rico Flores Jr., is done for the year. The deeper numbers are ugly. Virginia ranks 113th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 123rd on third down, and the line has been leaking sacks all year. Drives stall, and the ones that don’t often end in field goals. Tony Elliott is sticking with Pribula and his offensive coordinator anyway. That’s loyalty, not a fix.
What Virginia does well is shorten the game. The Cavaliers held the ball for 38:47 against Duke and average 32 minutes of possession. Their punter, Daniel Sparks, averages 51.1 yards a kick, and they rank fifth nationally in net punting. That means long fields for the other team. Long drives, short games and opponents starting deep in their own territory all point the same way, and it isn’t toward 50 points.
The defense is better than the record. Virginia has the best pass-efficiency defense in the ACC, 16th nationally, with eight interceptions. Only 37.6% of opponents’ pass plays against them count as successful, which ranks 18th. The Cavaliers haven’t allowed more than two touchdowns from scrimmage in regulation in 10 of their last 13 games. That matters this week, because Wake’s passing game is the whole show. Gio Lopez has 17 touchdowns against one interception.
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Wake doesn’t need to race, and won’t. I’m not knocking the Deacons. They’re 6-1, they’ve outscored their last three opponents 136-24, and they convert 93.9% of red-zone trips, the best rate in the ACC. They’ll score. The question is how many times they get the ball. Virginia’s run defense is leaky, ranking 121st in success rate allowed, so a Wake team holding a lead will happily run the ball and wind the clock down. Dickert said the bye was “huge” for a banged-up group, but he also admitted that “you can’t just show up after a two-week gap and expect game speed.” Rust plus a top receiver who may not be at full speed usually means a slow first quarter. Carlos Hernandez played only a few snaps at Cal.
The power ratings agree. Plug the two teams’ SP+ numbers into a quick projection and you land in the high 40s, and last year’s meeting finished 16-9. The only touchdown in that game came on a punt return.
Where this goes sideways. Virginia’s secondary is held together with tape. Safeties Corey Costner, Brandyn Hillman and Ethan Minter are all day-to-day, and if none of them play, Lopez could pick that back line apart. Turnovers are the other risk. Pribula’s giveaways handing Wake a short field could turn a 24-10 game into 38-17 quickly. Watch the injury report and the wind before you bet.
Projected score: Wake controls it without ever needing a fourth-quarter shootout. Wake Forest 28, Virginia 13.
The Pick: Under 49.5
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