Washington Huskies vs. Oregon Ducks Odds, Angles, Free Pick ATS

by | Last updated Nov 11, 2022 | cfb

Washington Huskies (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. Oregon Ducks (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS)

College Football Week 11

Date and Time: Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 7PM EST

Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon

TV: Fox

Point Spread: WASH +13.5/ORE -13.5 (SportsBetting.ag – Awesome live betting! Sweet signup and reload bonuses!)

Over/Under Total: 72.5

The Washington Huskies take on the Oregon Ducks in a big Pac-12 showdown from Autzen Stadium on Saturday. A 24-21 win over a good Oregon State team last week has Washington looking good at 7-2, on the precipice of having a chance to really put themselves in the mix with a big win on Saturday. It won’t be easy against an Oregon bunch that has been above reproach for a few months, putting a series of impressive wins together. Last week, they marched into Boulder and gave the Buffaloes a 49-10 drubbing. Who can cover the spread in Eugene this week?

Is Oregon on a Different Level?

This is a crazy conference, where anything can happen in one-game windows that make it seem like it was a waste of time considering anything that led up to that. But Oregon has been perfect in conference play, winning all their games and covering all but one spread that they narrowly missed. Washington has gotten on a nice roll with three straight wins, but their defeat of Oregon State last week was their best conference win of the season. They also lost consecutive games to UCLA and, more distressingly, to Arizona State. You could probably also say that Oregon has benefitted from a cushy conference schedule in its own right, with a win over UCLA being their top win. But their supremacy over all their conference foes suggests a stronger overall football machine.

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Matchup issues for the Huskies

First off, getting this key game on the road isn’t going to do them any favors. The robust Oregon run defense also looms as a major problem this week for the Huskies. That Oregon defensive front can be a handful, and with guys like DJ Johnson coming after the quarterback, we’ll see if the Washington O-line can hold up as they have been and protect Michael Penix, Jr. While the Washington passing-offense is a big dimension, it’s likely the only realistic route they have in this game. And to the credit of Penix, Jr., his 3232 passing yards have been huge in making the Huskies ascend a bit this season. With 25 TDs and the services of pass-catchers like Rome Odunze, they are dangerous.

It’s hard to get a real gauge on the Oregon pass defense. On the one hand, the numbers speak for themselves, as they are poor for a ranked team. But when you take away that season-opening disaster against Georgia and some backdoor-type stuff in some of their other wins, maybe it paints a picture that makes them look worse than they are in reality. It’s still fair to say that they’re not very good, and with Washington being a premier aerial offense, it does offer an interesting matchup wrinkle, to say the least.

The Flip Side to the Coin

Facing a home Oregon offense might put a type of heat on this Washington defense that they have not experienced yet this season. A pretty good run defense up to this point. We’ll see how they hold up against what Oregon can wield with Mar’Keise Irving, Noah Whittington, and the nimble feet of Oregon quarterback Bo Nix. This would represent a greater challenge on the ground than what Washington is accustomed to. Oregon can get you a number of ways, however, and Nix has really been fruitful and efficient through the air working with a large arsenal of ball-catchers. Washington continues to see its secondary deteriorate over time, and this is a dimension of the game that looms as a major potential issue. The main problem for the Washington defense in this game is that they’re facing a complete offense that is in good form, eager to make a splash in a big game.

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The Value Quotient

On one hand, you could simply sign off on the notion that Oregon is a supreme force in the Pac-12 and Washington is more of a higher-end team that is still a part of the “rest of the pack.” And at home in a game where Oregon figures to be mentally on-point, a conclusive Oregon romp hardly seems a far-fetched proposition. But a spread bordering on the two-touchdown mark seems pretty steep, doesn’t it? Oregon is the more-complete team with the better track record this season and is at home. But against the top-passing offense in the nation, with their pass defense being their top weakness, shouldn’t that give us room to pause? It’s a big game at home for the Ducks, but it’s maybe more to Washington, a chance to make all their disappointments disappear and give their whole season an air of success.

Take the Points

Again, it’s not that difficult picturing Oregon controlling the tempo of this game and really taking it to the Washington defense in a number of different ways. I just think Washington might be up for a little bit of a track meet if one were to break out this week. And while it’s hard to fancy them in any kind of straight-up way, I’m not sure Oregon is two touchdowns better than the next-best teams in the Pac-12. That might not stick in a one-game window, but I tend to think Washington isn’t 14 points worse than Oregon, even in this tough spot. I see the Huskies hitting the scoreboard with enough regularity to keep this one in sight. I’ll take Washington and the points.

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