No. 8 West Virginia Mountaineers (4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS) vs. No. 11 Texas Longhorns (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)
College Football Week 6
Date/Time: Saturday October 6th, 2012. 7:00PM Eastern
Where: Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium Austin, T.X.
TV: FOX
by Jay, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: WVU +6.5/TEX -6.5
Over/Under Total: 75
An interesting pairing in the Big 12 takes place this Saturday when the no. 11 Texas Longhorns welcome the no. 8 West Virginia Mountaineers into Austin. The Mountaineers and Longhorns each have a conference win to their resume this season but this weekend’s game will be each opponent’s biggest challenge to date. In fact, this Saturday’s meeting with no. 8 and no. 11 will be the Big 12’biggest game of the season in terms of poll rankings. Needless to say, the Longhorns or Mountaineers could put their selves in great position in the Big 12 with a win this Saturday night.
The Longhorns are coming off an impressive 41-36 victory in Stillwater last week. The normally stout Texas defense allowed 576 yards against the Cowboys marking the defense’s worse outing of the year. However, the Longhorns offense was dazzled by a brilliant showing from sophomore QB David Ash. Ash completed 30 of 37 passing for 304 yards with 3 scores and 1 pick. On the year, Ash has completed over 70% of his passes in every game and has 10 touchdowns to just 1 interception. It was just the type of performance the Longhorns offense needed from their young quarterback to build some confidence heading into conference play.
The Longhorns defense has played solid football this season giving up just 21 points per game. As we all know, the Big 12 is stacked with high powered offenses like no other conference in America when you consider teams like Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor and West Virginia. With those types of offenses, the Texas defense is going to have games where they give up some big points and yards. Therefore, it is extremely important that David Ash and the rest of the offense can counteract with big offensive performances in those games like last week’s win over Oklahoma State. If the Longhorns can continue to get that type of offensive success, they will be extremely tough to beat for the remainder of the season.
The visiting Mountaineers will bring one of the best offenses in the country into Austin this week. Just think back to last week, Baylor put up 63 points and it still was not enough to beat the Mountaineers. West Virginia’s 70-63 victory was the Big 12’s highest scoring game of all-time and QB Geno Smith stole the show throwing 8 touchdowns passes. Smith is having that type of ‘special’ season that I can brag about since I picked him to win the Heisman Trophy. Smith has posted playstation type numbers completing 83.4% passing for 1,728 yards with 20 touchdowns and the most impressive stat of all 0 interceptions.
Of course Smith should not get all the credit since he is surrounded by great company. Wide outs Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin are a dynamic duo in the receiving game. Both Bailey and Austin have already racked up ridiculous numbers. Bailey leads the team with 41 catches for 635 yards and 10 touchdowns. Austin is closely behind with 48 catches for 560 yards and 7 touchdowns. Together the West Virginia passing assault has is the best in the nation and the stats prove it since West Virginia leads the country averaging 441 passing yards per game. It would be hard to imagine any defenses completely shutting down this offense but many have to wonder how long West Virginia can continue to post these stupid offensive numbers. Could the Longhorns finally find a way to slow down this Mountaineers’ passing attack?
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I think Mack Brown will try to find ways to slow down this West Virginia offense primarily by running the football. West Virginia’s offense has every Big 12 defense’s attention right now and the Longhorns just had a scare from Oklahoma State’s quick striking offense last week. I believe the Texas coaching staff realizes this game does not need to be a shootout. Additionally, Texas’s last 5 of 6 games at home have gone under the total. Take the under 75
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