No. 9 Wisconsin Badgers (7-1 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. Purdue Boilermakers
(4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS), Week 10 NCAA Football, 12:00 p.m. EST, Saturday,
November 6, 2010, Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, Ind., TV: Big Ten
Network
by Badger of Predictem.com
Betting Odds Wis -20/Pur +20
Over/Under Total: 51
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The 9th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers will try and keep their inside track
on the Big Ten Conference title on Saturday when they travel to West
Lafayette, Indiana, for a crucial road test against the struggling
Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium.
The Badgers spent the past bye week savoring their 31-30 victory on
the road at Iowa a week before, giving them back-to-back wins over
then No. 1 Ohio State and the Hawkeyes in consecutive weeks. With one
remaining road game at Michigan on November 20, Wisconsin will have
to ace this weeks test on the road at Purdue to keep themselves in
the thick of the Big Ten race and stay in the BCS playoff hunt.
Purdue has been depleted by injuries and its starting to show as
they lost another lopsided affair in Big Ten play last weekend, 44-10
on the road at Illinois. After beating up on Minnesota and
Northwestern in back-to-back weeks to start October, the Boilermakers
have now lost two in a row in huge fashion (lost to Ohio State 49-0
the week before) and suddenly find themselves in a major struggle to
get bowl-eligible in the final weeks of the regular season.
The Boilermakers will face some steep odds if they hope to pull off
the big upset at home this Saturday, especially since most
sportsbooks are currently listing the Badgers as large 20-point
favorites.
The over/under total has yet to open at most of the sportsbooks in
Las Vegas, but the few offshore sportsbooks that have already
released a total are currently listing it at 51.
Offensively these teams are at the opposite extremes right now.
Wisconsin has a proven senior leader in Scott Tolzien at quarterback,
who is making good decisions and is taking care of the ball (71.8
comp %., 8 TD, 4 INT), but for the most part they pound the ball on
the ground (221.4 ypg 13th) with John Clay behind a massive
offensive line.
Purdue on the other hand is on their third quarterback, freshman Sean Robinson, since opening day starter Robert Marve tore his ACL a few
weeks back. The Boilers offense has struggled badly since the injury,
only totaling 118 yards of offense in the Ohio State loss and just 52
yards on 7-of-20 passing in last weeks loss at Illinois. The
predictable approach the Boilers must take now is crushing their
defense too, since they were only 3-for-14 on third down versus the
Buckeyes and just 2-of-14 on third down last week.
As a result the Boilermakers once decent defense is taking on water
fast. One week after giving up 489 total yards to the Buckeyes, the
Boilermakers gave up 391 against the Illini, including 187 on the
ground, which will certainly be tested when the Badgers come to town
this weekend.
With Robinson learning on the fly, the Badgers 24th-ranked defense (317.1 ypg allowed) should be able to control the Boilermakers
attack. Wisconsin has been a little vulnerable to the pass in recent
weeks (201.9 ypg), but with the freshman Robinson still getting his
feet wet the Badgers should be able to keep the Boilers passing
attack under wraps.
Wisconsin has won four straight in the head-to-head series, including
last years 37-0 shutout at Camp Randall in Madison. The Badgers last
trip to Ross-Ade Stadium was in 2006, in what turned into a 24-3
victory as 6.5-point favorites.
Don’t forget to check out our Week 9 NFL football picks!
The Badgers have won in each of their last three visits to Purdue
(dating back to 1999), are 7-3 SU going back 10 meetings and are
6-3-1 ATS in those same 10 head-to-head meetings.
The under is a perfect 4-0 in the last four games, all covers by the
Badgers.
The favorite in this series is 4-1-1 ATS the last six times these two
schools have tangled on the gridiron.
Badgers Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Theres little to no reason why the Badgers should
struggle in this one, even though they dont cover all that much. I
personally dont like taking the road team in Big Ten play,
especially laying huge wood at 20 points. So Im going to play the
under of 51 and hope the Boilermakers have a hard time scoring again.
