U.S. Open Predictions to Win
Date: June 18-21, 2015
Course: Chambers Bay University Place, WA
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by Evergreen, PGA Golf Handicapper, Predictem.com
Each of golfs four Major Championships has individual elements that make them standout from the rest and that element for the U.S. Open is pure difficulty. This week marks the 115thedition of The U.S. Open and the USGA has set out once again to define the very best golfer in the world and they do not mind embarrassing some golfers in order to do so. As with any Open Championship, the course will be set up as hard as possible and there will always be those that say the brutal nature of The Open goes past the line of fairness but however you look at it, this tournament and this championship is rightfully one of the most prestigious events in golf history.
The Open heads to a new venue this year with Chambers Bay Golf Course hosting its first PGA event. The Robert Trent Jones design is clearly reminiscent of a British Links course with some drawing comparisons with St. Andrews and Kohler, Wisconsins Whistling Straits. The nearly 7,600 yard course sits on Puget Sound and this former quarry is a sight to behold. Even the casual golf fan can see the immense challenge in the ever-present dunes and bunkers with some holes completely surrounded by massive sand and fescue complexes. The course features major elevation changes throughout and fairways are sloped and pinched to funnel balls into trouble spots. The location on the Sound allows for wind to be a bigger factor than in many Opens and becomes a severe threat on the holes that have those elevation changes. Ive heard many predictions stating that no player will be under par when it all ends Sunday but no matter the winning total, the champion will have overcome a very stout course.
Most of the news coming from practice rounds suggests that Chambers Bay can be approached in a variety of ways. That makes sense given the British Open feel of the course and it is actually good news for several players. There have been past Opens where crooked drivers were simply not going to fare well as the roughs were so penalizing and many power players lost before the event even began. There will be trouble off the fairways here but that 5-inch spinach style rough is missing and there will be chances to recover provided shots dont find unplayable lie-type situations. Give a little advantage to those that have spent a lot of time touring in Europe as they have seen this type of course much more often than most American players. Other than that, this Open is wide open as there is precious little experience to lean on at this eight year old venue. The longer players will see opportunities to attack several holes and the low-risk approach should work as well so there really is a feel that a darkhorse or journeyman could make a name for themselves this week.
Each week, we take a look at the online betting sites (5Dimes Sportsbook
is the best and with the most options) and highlight the players that we
think are the best bets to win. We are expanding our pick selection this
week and breaking down nine players, three each from a favorite, middle-of-the-road
and longshot perspective. Here are our picks for the 115thU.S. Open.
Rickie Fowler (18 to 1 odds to win)
Fowler is heading into his 7thU.S. Open appearance and it as relevant as ever with his Players Championship victory just a few weeks back. He was T10 in the 2013 Open, T2 last year and has a really strong 72.35 stroke average in his U.S. Open career. A couple of years ago, Folwers swing was flat, likely too flat to win at a course that had big rough and required shots to be dug out but he has modified most of that flatness out and has been a contender in Majors ever since. It doesnt take much observation to see that this kid is comfortable taking on deep fields and big courses so he has the moxie to go right at this course. That hasnt always been a good Open approach but I think it flies this year and Rickie should be in the mix provided he shows something close to the form he has over the last year and a half or so.
Jason Day (22 to 1)
Day has made a case for the most successful U.S. Open golfer over the last few years to not win the event. In just four previous Opens, Day has two runner-up finishes and has a fantastic 70.94 scoring average. Jason is 6thon Tour in driving distance but has talked openly about keeping himself out of trouble, which is just what you want to hear from a player heading into this week. Day is a fine scrambler, ranking 14thin that category on the season and leads the Tour in birdie average. Everyone will have to apply some pressure to the course if they are going to win and Day has that ability alongside a patient attitude. He could be the best value among the list of players that are widely considered to be strong contenders.
Sergio Garcia (28 to 1)
I always seem to forget that Sergio has been around since 1999. He certainly has the experience factor down as he enters his 16thU.S. Open and he has plenty of coursework at links-style venues. His best Open finish was 3rdin 2005 but he has been in the mix as recently as 2011 with a 7thplace finish and has done well across a variety of courses. His 72.38 aggregate Open average is solid and he still has the power game to go after this course. The putter had long been holding Garcia back from winning a Major but he has improved that over the last few seasons and enters the week 44thin putting average. He needs a little bit of a tee-to-green renaissance to contend here but he has the game and is under the radar enough to simply go out there and do the work.
Jim Furyk (33 to 1)
The 2005 U.S. Open champ has two decades of Open experience to draw on. Alongside his win, Furyk has six other top-5 finishes including a T4 in 2012. There isnt much you can do to rattle a player of his caliber and Chambers Bay will not intimidate him either. Look for Furyk to employ his 6thbest driving accuracy in order to avoid the trouble spots and the rest will be relatively easy by comparison. Jim is 12thin greens hit and 18thin scrambling so there shouldnt be much to stand in the way of him getting birdie looks. Hes the third ranked player in the world for a reason and knows every little detail about competing in and winning the U.S. Open.
Brandt Snedeker (50 to 1)
Snedeker will tee it up for his 9thOpen with a career scoring average of 72.32 and a high finish of T8. Sneds is a control player that will navigate the course with his head as much as his clubs and that should keep him making poor shot choices. Should he get himself onto the greens in good order, he can use his stellar putter (11thin average, 4thin 1-putt%) to make the most of his opportunities. Brandt is one of the best scramblers on Tour and that will likely be a key stat this week as you just cant go four days here without needing some key up-and-downs.
Graeme McDowell (66 to 1)
McDowell has competed in nine Opens so far, including 2010, when he bested the field at Pebble Beach. He was a runner-up just two years later and averages 72.56 strokes per Open round. Chambers Bay is long and you worry a bit if power is needed as Graeme is not the lengthiest of drivers but all the rest is there for another Open run. McDowell is 39thin fairways and 27thin putting average which includes a Tour best putting average for putts over 25 feet. He should feel right at home on a links course and should be on the short list of potential winners if the weather stiffens or the course just turns brutal as some have predicted.
Bill Haas (80 to 1)
Haas hasnt done much in his six previous Opens with a T23 in 2011 as his best finish but he has the type of game that could survive the Open test and his 73.25 scoring average is far from poor. You wont find any standout stats on Haas sheet but he has no real weaknesses either. He drives it no worse than average and hits a top-40 amount of greens. He is again top-40 in overall ballstriking and adds a 25thin scrambling to give him a bit of everything even if nothing really jumps out in the positive category. Haas is a grinder and the more this event turns into a grind, the better for him and players that like to limit mistakes and hang around while others falter.
Jason Dufner (80 to 1)
As a former PGA Champion, Dufner has some bead on what it takes it win a Major and he has been close before at the U.S. Open with T4s in 2012 and 2013. Dufner has seen some struggles both on and off the course this year but his play is coming around with a T8 at the Nelson and a nice 66/67 start at the Memorial before kicking it around a bit on the weekend. He is top-25 in fairways so he should be off and running from the tee and he puts in the workman style that often is rewarded on tough tracks. I think a lot was expected of him after breaking out a few years ago and it didnt really mesh with his overall attitude but enough time has passed to let him operate a little more freely and his easy-going nature is a good fit for the Open.
Francesco Molinari (100 to 1)
The younger of the golfing Molinari brothers will make his 7thU.S. Open appearance this week and it hasnt gone great for him before with just a T23 as his best finish but I guess thats why he is an appropriate longshot. Francesco has made the cut in six straight Majors and has missed only two Major cuts in his last 13 starts so he seems a good bet to be around on the weekend at least. You cant say that for many players this far down the betting board. Molinari is the best on Tour in finding the fairway and adds a top-5 greens hit mark, making him one of the most reliable tee-to-green players in the field. His putting isnt bad but it certainly isnt winning him any tournaments either. He needs a big week on the greens to make some noise but there are few that have any real experience at Chambers Bay so everyone will be on equal footing when it comes to reading and putting these greens. Molinari has the Euro experience that many feel will pay off this week and is very used to playing against the best fields in the biggest events.
NOTES
Rory McIlroy He is the betting favorite at 5 to 1 and is always a threat to win any event. His value is so low here however that it makes it hard to bet him as he could just as easily miss the cut. I like to have about 12-15 bets riding in the Majors and betting the absolute favorite too often feels like a low-value hedge that isnt even all that exciting to root for. Thats just my opinion though, if you want to bet Rory, you really didnt need a third-party endorsement.
Tiger Woods Tiger is 33 to 1 to win this week and I doubt I would put any money on him even at 333 to 1. There just isnt enough from his limited play to show me that he is ready to take on this level of course against this level of competition. His practice rounds have gone OK by most reports with most of his trouble stemming from wayward drives. A bad driving performance will kill his chances of seeing the weekend much less making a contending run. I want to see Tiger return to relevance but it doesnt seem likely this week.
Phil Mickelson Lefty has famously been runner-up at six different U.S. Opens and so many golf fans want him to get that elusive win. He is 18 to 1 at most online sportsbooks so he is firmly among the group tabbed to contend. Mickelson will have had an entire week of practice at Chambers Bay by the time everyone tees off so he is as prepared as any and has the array of shots necessary to play the course the way the USGA and the weather dictate. That said, he shouldnt be counted on to pull off a miracle as too many of his tournaments over the last few years have been marred by loose shots and sometimes unreliable short game performances. This course will eat him, or anyone, up that cant be accurate around the trouble and recover when necessary. Phil CAN win but my bets are going elsewhere. Bet your US Open predictions FREE by taking advantage of a huge 50% bonus up to $2000 at MyBookie. For those not aware of what a bonus is, it works like this… You can deposit $100 and they will give you an extra 50% on your deposit ($50). Example 2: Deposit $1000 and they will give you an extra $500. Your account starts out with $1500! Just for giving them your business!
Good luck and good golf!
Odds to win 2015 US Open (You can bet these exact odds at Bovada Sportsbook using your credit card!)
Rory McIlroy 7/1
Jordan Spieth 8/1
Phil Mickelson 16/1
Dustin Johnson 18/1
Justin Rose 18/1
Rickie Fowler 18/1
Henrik Stenson 25/1
Adam Scott 28/1
Bubba Watson 28/1
Hideki Matsuyama 28/1
Jason Day 33/1
Jim Furyk 33/1
Jimmy Walker 33/1
Sergio Garcia 33/1
Martin Kaymer 40/1
Matt Kuchar 40/1
Patrick Reed 40/1
Billy Horschel 50/1
Brandt Snedeker 50/1
Brooks Koepka 50/1
Ryan Moore 50/1
Tiger Woods 50/1
Byeong Hun An 66/1
Keegan Bradley 66/1
Lee Westwood 66/1
Paul Casey 66/1
Zach Johnson 66/1
Bill Haas 80/1
Chris Kirk 80/1
Graeme McDowell 80/1
Hunter Mahan 80/1
Ian Poulter 80/1
J.B. Holmes 80/1
Jason Dufner 80/1
Kevin Kisner 80/1
Kevin Na 80/1
Louis Oosthuizen 80/1
Luke Donald 80/1
Ryan Palmer 80/1
Webb Simpson 80/1
Charley Hoffman 100/1
Danny Willett 100/1
Francesco Molinari 100/1
Gary Woodland 100/1
Jamie Donaldson 100/1
Marc Leishman 100/1
Shane Lowry 100/1
Branden Grace 125/1
Brendon Todd 125/1
Charl Schwartzel 125/1
Russell Henley 125/1
Alexander Noren 150/1
Ben Martin 150/1
Bernd Wiesberger 150/1
Brian Harman 150/1
Ernie Els 150/1
George Mcneill 150/1
Michael Putnam 150/1
Robert Streb 150/1
Tommy Fleetwood 150/1
Tony Finau 150/1
Victor Dubuisson 150/1
Angel Cabrera 200/1
Bo Van Pelt 200/1
Cameron Tringale 200/1
David Hearn 200/1
Erik Compton 200/1
Geoff Ogilvy 200/1
John Senden 200/1
Joost Luiten 200/1
Marc Warren 200/1
Matt Every 200/1
Miguel Angel Jimenez 200/1
Alexander Levy 250/1
Colin Montgomerie 250/1
Danny Lee 250/1
George Coetzee 250/1
Lucas Glover 250/1
Morgan Hoffman 250/1
Retief Goosen 250/1
Stephen Gallacher 250/1
Thongchai Jaidee 250/1
Camilo Villegas 300/1
Daniel Summerhays 300/1
Marcel Siem 300/1
Ryo Ishikawa 300/1
Thomas Aiken 300/1
Anirban Lahiri 400/1
Andres Romero 500/1
Beau Hossler 500/1
Billy Hurley III 500/1
Blayne Barber 500/1
Brad Fritsch 500/1
Brandon Hagy 500/1
Bryson DeChambeau 500/1
Cameron Smith 500/1
Charlie Beljan 500/1
Cheng-Tsung Pan 500/1
Cody Gribble 500/1
D.A. Points 500/1
Darren Clarke 500/1
Garth Mulroy 500/1
Jamie Lovemark 500/1
John Parry 500/1
Lee Janzen 500/1
Lee McCoy 500/1
Lucas Bjerregaard 500/1
Marcus Fraser 500/1
Matthew NeSmith 500/1
Ollie Schniederjans 500/1
Richard Lee 500/1
Roberto Castro 500/1
Sam Horsfield 500/1
Sam Saunders 500/1
Tom Hoge 500/1
Wen-Chong Liang 500/1
Yong-Eun Yang 500/1
Steve Marino 500/1
Andy Pope 1000/1
Brad Elder 1000/1
Bradley Neil 1000/1
Cole Hammer 1000/1
Davis Riley 1000/1
Denny McCarthy 1000/1
Hiroyuki Fujita 1000/1
Hyung-Sung Kim 1000/1
Jack Maguire 1000/1
Jake Knapp 1000/1
Jared Becher 1000/1
Jason Allred 1000/1
Jason Palmer 1000/1
Kevin Lucas 1000/1
Kurt Barnes 1000/1
Kyle Jones 1000/1
Mark Silvers 1000/1
Masahiro Kawamura 1000/1
Matt Mabrey 1000/1
Michael Campbell 1000/1
Michael Davan 1000/1
Nick Hardy 1000/1
Oliver Farr 1000/1
Patrick Wilson 1000/1
Rich Berberian Jr. 1000/1
Sebastian Cappelen 1000/1
Seuk-Hyun Baek 1000/1
Shiv Kapur 1000/1
Stephan Jaeger 1000/1
Tjaart Van Der Walt 1000/1
Timothy O’Neal 1000/1
Troy Kelly 1000/1
Tyler Duncan 1000/1
