Crowne Plaza Invitational Picks
By Tee it High, Golf Handicapper, Predictem.com
LAST WEEK: -12.6 units
It was a terrible week for Tee it high. But as all golf bettors know, wagering on golf is a marathon not a sprint.
To win picks: Missed all 4 picks and to be totally blunt not really close. It was all McIlroy’s week but I’d still point out with short odds in a golf tournament, you simply don’t have the best bet available. -3 units
Prop picks: Matsuyama got a T20, Mahan finished T47 and Bae finished T58. Reifers missed the cut. -5 units
Head to Head Matchups: Not good either as I dropped 4.6 units. Biggest error was underestimating Phil Mickelson as he showed his ability to continue to play well on courses he had success on. -4.6 units
THIS WEEK
We head to Texas for the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial. At 7,204 yards, this course is built with narrow fairways and doglegs. You don’t have to be long to win here but you must be accurate. Only 11 of the top 35 in the world are here.
LAST FIVE YEAR’S WINNERS
2010 Zach Johnson
2011 David Toms
2012 Zach Johnson
2013 Boo Weekley
2014 Adam Scott
I am going to throw out Adam Scott until he figures out his putter envy. And Zach is certainly worth more than a thought.
LAST YEAR’S TOP TEN
Adam Scott
Jason Dufner
Freddie Jacobson
Nicholas Thompson
David Lingmerth
Ryan Palmer
John Senden
Brendon Todd
David Toms
Kevin Chappell
Hideki Matsuyama-Not in Field
Michael Thompson
Jimmy Walker
Always consider last year’s results combined with recent success. So I am looking harder at the following: Palmer, Senden. Todd, Walker. Putting Palmer and Walker on the short list.
SHORT PICK
I love Jordan Spieth (+450). Who doesn’t? Zach Johnson (+1200) has two wins here in the last five years. Jimmy Walker (+1800) is No. 2 in the Fed Ex standings and every time for the last few years I underestimate him, he proves me wrong. Ryan Palmer (+2500) has a 2nd and 3 Top 10s. I will pull the trigger on Walker on the win bets but look for all 4 to make me some money one way or the other. Bet your Crown Plaza Invitational picks at an online sportsbook where your credit card will work for depositing and where you’ll receive a generous 50% signup bonus up to $2000 in free cash: MyBookie!
MEDIUM PICK
Honestly, I would consider Kevin Na (28/1) if he did not drive me crazy with the slow play. And I considered heavily Chris Kirk (28/1). Also keeping a real close eye on Patrick Rodgers (75/1) , the acclaimed collegiate golfer making strides. And I thought about going back to the well with Hunter Mahan (45/1) but decided there is a better fit.
John Senden (+6000) is the pick with two top 10s in his last two tourneys (Matchplay and TPC).
LONGSHOT PICKS
Longshots are a flyer. A total guess based on who might breakout. I’m giving you two picks this week at .5 units apiece.
As I mentioned last week, Sangmoon Bae (150/1) is as motivated as it gets. From last week: “His appeal with the South Korean government to avoid compulsory military service is still pending. The President’s Cup is to be played this year in South Korea. Bae is the highest ranked Korean player in the world (#15 on the President’s Cup list). And getting on that team would have to help his appeal.” That situation has not changed and neither will my longshot selection for this week.
PROP PLAYS
Love backing up my picks with top ten props.
Take Walker (+160), Senden (+500) and Bae (+1300) to finish in the top ten. I’ll also take Ryan Palmer (+220) for reasons mentioned above. I’m passing on the bad odds on Jordan Spieth (-250) and short odds on Zach Johnson but will use them in head to head. Find the most golf props online at the web’s best sportsbook (lowest priced odds!) 5Dimes.
HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUPS PREDICTIONS
PICK SUMMARY
1 Unit Walker (18/1)
1 Unit Senden (60/1)
.5 Unit Bae (150/1)
1 Unit Walker top ten (+160)
1 Unit Senden top ten (+500)
1 Unit Bae top ten (+1300)
1 unit Palmer top ten (+220)
1 Unit Moore +105 over Mickelson
3 Units Matsuyama -120 over Mickelson
2 Units Holmes even over Scott
1 unit Holmes -120 over Kisner
1 unit Bae even over Stenson
1 Unit McIlroy -219 over Stenson
1 unit Mahan +115 over Martin
