Deutsche Bank Championship Picks – 27045

The Deutsche Bank Championship
Date: August 31 September 03, 2012
Course: TPC Boston Norton, MA
TV: The Golf Channel/NBC
by Evergreen, PGA Golf Handicapper,

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Week one of the FedExCup Playoffs came and went with most of the attention paid to Tigers back and his subsequent weekend slide but Woods, along with the rest of the top-100 on the FedEx points list, get no rest and must head to the TPC Boston for some more playoff golf at this weeks Deutsche Bank Championship.Players that are firmly in the top-20 or so on the points list wont be too worried as they are likely in both the BMW and the Tour Championship field but those outside the top-30 and certainly those outside the top-70 face the equivalent of a win or go home scenario.Tiger and Rory highlight the top-100 field that is missing only Sergio Garcia and David Toms but there are several players in position to win the FedExCup if they can secure a Deutsche Bank win.Nick Watney vaulted to the top of the points list with his Barclays win and nearly all of the remaining players have a chance to win the Playoffs outright if they can get hot now but some are more motivated than others as their playoff lives hang on this weeks finish.

The TPC Boston was all but created for the Deutsche Bank Championship and will mark its 10thanniversary when play kicks off Friday.The course has undergone numerous aesthetic and layout changes over the years but play has never been interrupted, giving players something just a little different year to year.The course has been shortened from its original yardage but it still long for a par-71 at just over 7,300 yards and both long and short hitters have had their successes here.The fescue roughs penalize players that cant find the fairways but long iron approaches are left for those who sacrifice distance to find the short grass.The 18thcould have a big impact through the week as the par- finisher plays as the easiest hole on the course.The 528 yard, par-5 requires a long carry over fairway bunkers to have any look at the green in two and the longest hitters can put a short-iron in their hands if they can carry the furthest set of bunkers.Those choosing to layup face more bunkers in the landing area so no approach is without risk and a birdie is necessary just to keep pace with the field.

Each week, we take a look at the online betting sites and highlight a few players that we think are good bets to win it all.We make a short, middle and long odds pick to win and breakdown a couple of head to head matches that you can find at any golf sportsbook.Here are our picks to win the 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship.

Short Favorite: Jason Dufner (20 to 1 odds to win)

With the TPC Boston requiring a solid overall game, who better than a guy in the top-20 in fairways, the top-5 in greens hit and second overall in ballstriking?Dufner has had a breakout year and is in the middle of a stretch that has seen him record six top-10s in nine starts, including two wins and a runner-up.The course suited him in 2009 when he was T2 and he will be the only one rested as his regular-season points total allowed him a week off at the Barclays.Jason is top-5 in birdie and scoring average and enters the week third in the all-around but his 6thbest total driving rank should help him the most this week at a course that demands both length and accuracy.

Middle of the Road: Brandt Snedeker (28 to 1 odds to win)

Brandt is coming off a nice runner-up at the Barclays and likes the TPC Boston as hes been in the top-5 the last two years.Everything positive on Snedekers sheet comes from his Tour best strokes-gained putting stat.The work he has done on the greens has made up for average fairway and greens hit ranks and has turned out a top-10 birdie average.The putter has also been key in his top-20 scrambling game.If the driver and irons produce the same success that they did last week, there is no reason why Sneds cant be in the mix come Sunday.

Longshot:Matt Kuchar (50 to 1 odds to win)

50 to 1 is exceptional value for a talent like Kuchar and his game compares so well with past winners of this event.Matt has had some success in previous Deutsche starts with T25, T11 and T15 finishes going back three years and there is nothing on his 2012 record (18 of 19 cuts made, PLAYERS win) that would suggest that he is struggling at all.Kuchar enters the week in the top-40 in both fairways and greens, in the top-20 in putting and is tied for 1stwith eight top-10 finishes.There are no real weaknesses to his game and I think this is one time where the bookies are missing the boat a bit, and that thought alone is often enough to lay a little action on a value bet.

Head to Head Matches *picks to win based on final score after all four rounds.Check with your favorite offshore bookmaker for single round matches and a variety of prop bets.

Bill Haas (-115) v. Hunter Mahan (-115) (our pick to win: Mahan)

Mahan is off his normal ballstriking brilliance just a bit in 2012 but he still leads the Tour in the category and he also has advantages in both fairways and greens hit in this match.Both players are nearly identical in driving distance and while Haas owns the slightly better putter, Hunter still manages a better birdie and scoring average.

Graeme McDowell (-115) v. Padraig Harrington (-115) (our pick to win: McDowell)

Harrington came out the gates on fire at Bethpage last week while McDowell scuffled but both men struggled overall and will look to rebound this week.McDowell looks like the better pick as he hits more fairways and makes more birdies on average than Paddy and his overall ballstriking is better as well.I have no doubts that Harrington can fire a low number like he did last week but I do need him to do something on all four days before getting a nod in a head to head.

Good Luck!