RBC Heritage Predictions
Date: April 16-19, 2015
Course: Harbour Town Golf Links – Hilton Head, SC
TV: The Golf Channel/CBS
by Evergreen, PGA Golf Handicapper, Predictem.com
It is often hard to move on from a big event like the Masters, but the PGA Tour doesnt stop, in fact, a big chunk of the Tour was idle last week as the Masters field is so thin so there are plenty of players that are chomping at the bit to get back to golf. The Tour heads a bit north to Hilton Head this week for the RBC Heritage and Harbour Town Golf Links is about as good as it gets in terms of a host course to hold an event right after Augusta. Matt Kuchar is back to defend his 2014 championship and he does so against a strong field that includes Masters champ Jordan Spieth. One might expect Spieth to withdraw amidst all the media attention and jet-setting but the youngster is still scheduled to compete at Hilton Head as of Tuesday. Maybe he wants a plaid jacket to go with the green one.
Harbour Town is a classic Pete Dye design that is a true throwback considering the monster layouts that dominate the PGA Tour rotation. The 7,101 yard, par-71 course is among the shortest on Tour but provides the ultimate test of strategy where so many of the new-day courses are tests of power. A quick look at former champions here reveals names like McDowell, Snedeker, Furyk and Leonard along with Kuchar and I doubt any of those players ever crack the top-100 in driving distance. Brian Gay, another short but super straight player owns the tournament scoring record after he carded a 20-under total in 2009. So, if distance isnt part of the equation, what should we look for? Simple accuracy isnt really enough as there are plenty of strong tee-to-green players so pay close attention to the guys that have good proximity numbers. Essentially, they hit it closer to the hole and that is always a good thing, especially when it comes to made putts. I would expect a winning total to be in the high single digits to low teens under par so good scramblers that can make it through mistake free will have a good chance to move up through the week.
Each week, we take a look at the online betting sites and highlight the players that we think are the best bets to win. We make a few straight-up picks to win and breakdown a couple of head to head matches that you can find at any golf betting site. Here are our picks for the 2015 RBC Heritage. You can bet your RBC Heritage picks for FREE by getting a GIANT 100% bonus at 1Vice Sportsbook!
Jim Furyk (20 to 1 odds to win)
No offense to the new Masters champ but you cant really like Jordan Spieths chances to win this week as a Major win usually takes something out of a player and Spieths 5 to 1 odds to win arent very appealing in terms of value so lets look elsewhere. Furyk is the 2010 RBC champ and has two more top-10 finishes since that win. Jim missed the cut at Augusta but did not play poorly so he actually gains a little rest and focus time for this week. He is 5thin fairways and 28thin greens hit entering the week and is 2ndin proximity so he gains strokes on the field by having statistically easier putts. Furyk is obviously long on experience and knows how to turn around a disappointing result. He is still a top-10 player in the world rankings so any win shouldnt surprise.
Luke Donald (30 to 1)
No one has had more close calls at Harbour Town than Luke Donald. Since 2008, he has three runner-up finishes, including a playoff loss and two more third place runs. The win has been elusive but no other golfer has a better overall record here in recent years. Luke missed the cut by one at Augusta but again, I think thats a benefit for this week all things considered. Luke really fits the bill for a player that should succeed here as he is all control off the tee and should be able to avoid the tree trouble that will plague errant drives. His approach game is solid as is his scrambling and that good recovery game will allow him to save those critical pars and perhaps finally wear that honorable but hideous jacket.
Russell Knox (55 to 1)
Knox teed it up at the Heritage for the first time last year and turned in a nice T9 finish. He has two third place finishes this year already at the Shriners and Honda Classic and has the complete game to do well at Harbour Town. Knox is 52ndin fairways and 22ndgreens hit for a respectable 36thoverall in ballstriking. His relative lack of distance off the tee wont hurt him this week and he enters with top-35 birdie and scoring marks as well as a top-10 in approach proximity.
Jonas Blixt (100 to 1)
Moving on to the longshot, this Swedish striker has proven to be one of the best putters on Tour, and possibly the least known one. Blixt is top-10 in putts per GIR, putts per round, three-putt avoidance and enters the week #1 in overall putting average. He isnt lighting the golf world on fire with his tee-to-green prowess but that putter keeps him cashing checks. If Jonas has a good week of ballstriking at Harbour Town then that putter will be earning birdies instead of saving pars.
Head to Head Matches
Picks to win based on final score after all four rounds. Check with your favorite online sportsbook for single round matches and prop bets. Find the most golf betting props online at the web’s best sportsbook: 5Dimes!
Matt Kuchar v. Patrick Reed (pick to win: Kuchar)
Given the strategy required at this course, I think previous experience is of high value this week. Knowing where not to hit it is often as important and knowing where to go so look for the veteran set to have a little edge over the newbies on Tour. Kuchar, along with being the defending champ, hits more fairways than Reed and I will extend that to a greater ability to hit specific targets in the fairways to avoid trouble. Both players are reasonably close to each other on the stat sheet so it is splitting hairs to decide where the statistical advantage lies in this match so the experience factor comes into play even more. A little old school versus new school here but take the more controlled Kuchar over the youngster Reed.
Bill Haas v. Webb Simpson (pick to win: Simpson)
This match was legitimately difficult to handicap as many statistical advantages are on the side of Simpson but it really just feels like Haas is the better fit for this course as he does a number of things very well and Harbour Town eventually tests the entire skill set. I ultimately went with Simpson as he has decidedly better birdie and scoring averages while putting about the same as Haas. So, if you have two golfers that are about equal on the greens and one is scoring much better, it must be because of the tee-to-green side of things, right? This course has no patience for loose shots and Simpson should pull away from Haas on stronger fairways and greens hit marks.
2015 RBC Heritage Wagering Odds
Jordan Spieth 6/1
Zach Johnson 18/1
Jim Furyk 23/1
Patrick Reed 23/1
Ian Poulter 25/1
Matt Kuchar 25/1
Bill Haas 30/1
Louis Oosthuizen 30/1
Luke Donald 30/1
Billy Horschel 35/1
Brandt Snedeker 35/1
Charley Hoffman 35/1
Russell Henley 35/1
Webb Simpson 35/1
Charl Schwartzel 45/1
Graeme McDowell 45/1
Jason Kokrak 50/1
Kevin Streelman 50/1
Chris Kirk 60/1
Charles Howell III 65/1
Daniel Summerhays 65/1
Russell Knox 65/1
Jason Dufner 70/1
Brendon Todd 75/1
Daniel Berger 75/1
Ben Martin 80/1
Brendon de Jonge 80/1
Graham Delaet 80/1
Pat Perez 80/1
Sean O’Hair 80/1
Cameron Tringale 85/1
Ernie Els 85/1
Matt Every 90/1
John Huh 95/1
Justin Thomas 95/1
Martin Laird 95/1
Camilo Villegas 100/1
Rory Sabbatini 100/1
Morgan Hoffmann 110/1
Sang Moon Bae 110/1
Boo Weekley 120/1
Chesson Hadley 120/1
Jonas Blixt 120/1
Aaron Baddeley 130/1
Branden Grace 140/1
Johnson Wagner 140/1
K.J. Choi 140/1
Seung-Yul Noh 140/1
Vijay Singh 140/1
William McGirt 140/1
Brian Harman 150/1
Freddie Jacobson 150/1
George McNeill 150/1
Joost Luiten 150/1
Kevin Stadler 150/1
Marcel Siem 150/1
Carl Pettersson 160/1
Hudson Swafford 160/1
Brian Davis 170/1
James Hahn 170/1
Jason Bohn 170/1
Jerry Kelly 170/1
Tony Finau 170/1
Zac Blair 180/1
Brian Stuard 190/1
Chad Campbell 190/1
Chris Stroud 190/1
Robert Streb 190/1
Scott Brown 190/1
Alex Cejka 200/1
Danny Lee 200/1
Luke Guthrie 200/1
Michael Putnam 200/1
Jeff Overton 210/1
Robert Garrigus 210/1
Billy Hurley III 230/1
Thongchai Jaidee 230/1
Ryo Ishikawa 240/1
Scott Langley 240/1
Adam Hadwin 250/1
Anirban Lahiri 250/1
Cameron Smith 250/1
David Hearn 250/1
Jonathan Byrd 250/1
Lucas Glover 250/1
Mark Wilson 250/1
Martin Flores 250/1
Michael Thompson 250/1
Sam Saunders 250/1
Spencer Levin 250/1
Stewart Cink 250/1
Ben Crane 300/1
Bo Van Pelt 300/1
David Toms 300/1
Jhonattan Vegas 300/1
Kevin Kisner 300/1
Nicholas Thompson 300/1
Nick Taylor 300/1
Richard Sterne 300/1
Ricky Barnes 300/1
Troy Merritt 300/1
Brice Garnett 350/1
Bryce Molder 350/1
D.A. Points 350/1
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 350/1
John Merrick 350/1
Ken Duke 350/1
Andres Romero 400/1
Andrew Svoboda 400/1
Charlie Beljan 400/1
Justin Leonard 450/1
Andres Gonzales 500/1
Blake Adams 500/1
Chez Reavie 500/1
Corey Conners 500/1
Derek Ernst 500/1
Derek Fathauer 500/1
Dudley Hart 500/1
Glen Day 500/1
Gunn Yang 500/1
Jeff Maggert 500/1
Jim Renner 500/1
John Faidley 500/1
Kenny Perry 500/1
Mike Weir 500/1
Robert Allenby 500/1
Scott Verplank 500/1
Scott Vincent 500/1
Steven Bowditch 500/1
Tim Wilkinson 500/1
Tom Watson 500/1
Woody Austin 500/1
Good luck and good golf!
