2007 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Betting Odds and Handicapping Analysis
by Horse Race Handicapper Kenneth Strong of Predictem.com
10th Race, Monmouth Park, Friday, October 26
3-and-up, 1 mile and 70 yards, Purse $1 Million
2007 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Betting Analysis
Wagering Key: Win-Place-Show, Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Daily Double
The real question in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile is whether the favorites will show up. We’re guessing one will and one won’t but we’re not sure which one.
Likely favorite DISCREET CAT has the big numbers and the hype from last year but he comes into the race making his second start off only an okay third place finish in the Vosburgh-G1. Prior to that he was beaten 23 lengths in the Dubai World Cup-G1 and didn’t run a jump. There’s no question he has talent, butit’s also obvious he has problems. And he still hasn’t proven he can fight to win.
Second choice CORINTHIAN is definitely going to be on our tickets somewhere for two reasons. His trainer, Jimmy Jerkens, is the son of Giant Killer H. Allen Jerkens and capable in his own right (he’s already won a Breeders Cup race.) and his performance in the Metropolitan Mile three starts ago, in which he pummeled one of the Breeders’ Cup Classic favorites, Lawyer Ron. This horse has all kinds of talent but he’s also a nervous wreck at times, and he might not like the craziness that happens on Breeders’ Cup Day. Still - you have to use him. If he runs his best race he can win.
We also like the speedy GOTCHA GOLD, who has turned into the Monster of Monmouth in his last two starts, winning both the Salvatore Mile-G3 and the Iselin-G3. Both Grade 3 stakes but in the Salvatore he beat Lawyer Ron. Loves the track and loves rider Lopez but he’ll have other speed to contend with here.
LEWIS MICHAEL is an interesting horse at a nice price who can accelerate with a rush at times, and that would work for this track and race. We’re just not sure his best measures up to the best of the above. If an all-out duel develops he’s got an outside shot to take it based on trainer Castlano’s 36-percent win clip with second start off the layoff types. Also take a close look at improving 3-year-old XCHANGER, who is 2-for-3 at Monmouth. He can rally late but we’re just not sure of his class or whether this is far enough for him.
Below follow the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile entries with post positions and morning line odds. Check back Thursday for our final Breeders’ Cup picks.
2007 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Entries and Morning Line Betting Odds
Post Horse Odds
1 Discreet Cat 2-1
2 Lewis Michael 6-1
3 Wanderin Boy 8-1
4 Forefathers 20-1
5 High Finance 5-1
6 Gottcha Gold 8-1
7 Park Avenue Ball 15-1
8 Corinthian 7-2
9 Xchanger 6-1