2008 Breeders Cup Pick 6 Picks and Analysis
by Kenneth Strong of Predictem.com
Breeders Cup Pick 6 betting is never easy, but at least its worth the work! And now were playing with the tracks money.
Our analysis of the first set of Breeders Cup races on Friday was dead-on for the most part and our $2 Pick 4 amazingly paid over $600 with Zenyatta as a standout key. The Pick 4 was actually a Pick 3 with Zenyatta and if Sealy Hill had come through for us at 49-1 (second beaten only three-quarters of a length in the Filly & Mare Turf) who knows what we would have cashed for. So a small group of non-betting friends (they only bet on the Breeders Cup and the Kentucky Derby) will invest their $600 in winnings back in the Breeders Cup Ultra Pick 6 on Saturday. And there asking me for advice. So here it is - its too tough. Just kidding!
Of course that doesnt matter, theyre betting their money back regardless. They want the million dollar payoff. Can it be had for $600? Sure, if they get a few breaks and key in the right spots. And it might just be their day - and yours - so heres our 2008 Breeders Cup Pick 6 Analysis. Good luck!
Breeders Cup Pick 6 Leg 1 Breeders Cup Mile
Breeders Cup Mile Pick 6 Key Horses Goldikova, Kip Deville
Breeders Cup Mile Longshots Whatsthescript, Precious Kitten, Shakis
The Pick 6 begins in Race 4, the Breeders Cup Mile, and we have a bit of a problem in that race. We cant tell whether last years Breeders Cup Mile winner Kip Deville ran terrible in his prep, the Woodbine Mile, because this race was always his primary objective, because the turf was yielding, or if he was just a tired horse. Hes apparently training better than he ran, so we have to use him here. If he runs his best he is a major contender. The horse that really intrigues us in here is French shipper Goldikova. This 3-year-old filly has won three in a row in France, her last two being Group 1 wins going a mile including the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp over older horses. She hasnt lost since finishing third beaten 4 -lengths by the undefeated Zarkava the best turf horse in the world until her recent retirement. How good was Zarkava? She won the Arc de Triomphe over tough older horses In October and would have easily won this years Breeders Cup Turf. If Goldikova can handle the stiff turf here shes the winner on both class and talent. Well throw in Whatsthescript, Precious Kitten and Shakis on some small saver tickets as longshots. Whatsthescript has a tough wide post but hes good right now and if the pace collapses he might get lucky. Precious Kitten was beaten only 1 -lengths in her last by Forever Together, who won Fridays Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf. Shakis could get a sneaky trip up the rail at big odds.
Breeders Cup Pick 6 Leg 2 Breeders Cup Juvenile
Breeders Cup Juvenile Pick 6 Key Horse Square Eddie
Breeders Cup Juvenile Secondary Choices Street Hero, Midshipman, Bushranger.
The Breeders Cup Juvenile is the second leg of the Pick 6 and if Square Eddie can duplicate his performance in Keenelands Breeders Futurity, his first North American start, hell win this. We like the fact that leading rider Bejarano is aboard, thinking that he wont make the mistake of moving to early. Were a little worried that he might bounce off his first start in North America, but he does have the best late acceleration weve seen so far. Street Hero ran a good race winning the Norfolk over Pro-Ride and theres no real reason to think he cant defeat fellow entrant Midhipman again here. The fittest horse in the race will be Bushranger off his Oct. 3 win in the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket. He had to work to win that race and it should set him up perfectly for this if he can handle the Pro-Ride.
Breeders Cup Pick 6 Leg 3 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf
Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Pick 6 Key Horses Bittel Road, Westphalia, Grand Adventure
Breeders Cup JuvenileTurf Secondary Choices Skipadate, Donativum, City Style
The third leg of the Pick 6 is the Juvenile Turf, a wide open affair that will probably be decided by post positions and trips. One thing we discovered by watching the video replays is that Bittel Road knows how to win. We have to use him on that angle alone. He had every reason to lose his last two starts including the Bourbon at Keeneland, yet responded when the rider asked him to get the job done late. If he can somehow work out a trip behind the pacesetters he should be in the thick of it at the wire. We couldnt find any video on European shipper Westphalia, which was really disappointing. He will be fitter than the Americans, having trained in Europe, but we dont know if he can accelerate late on firm turf. He won his last, the Grade 2 Champagne Stakes over yielding turf going seven furlongs, so were hoping that shorter race will have him close to the pace in here and that his fitness will get him home late. He also drew a valuable inside post for this. Grand Adventure will be well bet but breaks from Post 12, which will make this very tough for him. He did however, beat the same horse that Bittel Road beat in his last, Skipadate, and by the same margin, a head, in the Summer Stakes at Woodbine. Skipadate is certainly a hard-trying sort who will give his best, but he may not be quite as good as Bittel Road and Grand Adventure. Again, he is another that could win this with a perfect trip. The last two well mention in here are Donativum and City Style. The former beat 23 decent horses to win his last in Europe and the latter looked good accelerating late to beat modest company in Louisiana. He would need a perfect trip but he will be monster odds. Have we mentioned every horse yet? Well, we did say this was wide open.
Breeders Cup Pick 6 Leg 4 Breeders Cup Sprint
Breeders Cup Sprint Pick 6 Key Horses Cost of Freedom, Street Boss
Breeders Cup Sprint Secondary Choice Midnight Lute
The fourth leg of the Pick 6 is the Breeders Cup Sprint and were going to go with Cost of Freedom as our main selection and hope they havent already gone to the well with him. Claimed off Carla Gaines for $50,000 three starts ago by John Sadler, he has come back to run two 110 Beyers including a half-length victory over fellow entrant Street Boss over the Pro-Ride in the Ancient Title at Santa Anita on Sept. 27. He draws the tough inside post and is likely to be pressing from the rail so his run will have to be perfectly times. Street Boss could certainly turn the tables on his aforementioned rival, but he is also burdened by an inside post. He was wide in his last but came flying late and he appears to love the surface. He has also been working well. Midnight Lute is rumored to be sitting on a big race after being plagued by foot problems and does have a proven Pro-Ride rider in Gomez. The winner of this race last year could certainly upset with his best race, but were still not convinced hes ready to run it. His chance is based on his trip. In Summation had a decent trip in his last despite what you may have read and was never a threat to Cost of Freedom and Street Boss in the Ancient Title. He will have to step it up a notch to beat those two. Fabulous Strike lost to fellow entrant and longshot Black Seventeen over a sloppy track in the Vosburgh in his last but has also had his share of physical problems and were not sure he can battle up front and hold on to win over the top two. Fatal Bullet is fast but should face big pace pressure here on the class raise and Pro-Ride just isnt kind to horses with the kind of trip he is expected to get.
Breeders Cup Pick 6 Leg 5 Breeders Cup Turf
Breeders Cup Turf Pick 6 Key Horses Soldier of Fortune, Conduit
Breeders Cup Turf Secondary Choices Red Rocks, Eagle Mountain
Races run at 1 miles are generally won by the classiest horses, which means European shipper Soldier of Fortune should win this race. Hell be making his second start off the layoff for sharp trainer Aidan OBrien and in his prep for this race came in one of the worlds toughest races, the Arc de Triomphe, in which he finished third beaten only 2 -lengths by, and weve said it before, the best turf horse in the world, Zarkava. There are no Zarkavas in here and if he fires anything close to his best shot he is the horse to beat. Grand Couturier ran out of his skin to win the Turf Classic at Belmont in his last but that was over yielding turf and the Santa Anita course is rock hard. If he can transfer that last race performance to firm turf he has a chance, but the best horses in here are better than he is on his best day. Red Rocks won this race two years ago and finished third last year. He beat the mighty Curlin in the Man O War at Belmont in his last, but Curlin didnt seem to like the turf as much as the dirt. Still, Red Rocks is capable on his best day and must be used on your tickets, at least as a saver. Winchester looked good winning the Secretariat over three-year-olds in his last but wed much rather go with Europeans as upsetters in here. Conduit won the Irish St. Leger in his last going 1 11/16 miles so he certainly has the stamina to win this and maybe even the class based on his fast improving from in Europe. Eagle Mountain was second in the Epsom Derby last year and enters this race off a good winning prep in the Grade 3 Joel Stakes at a mile. Red Rock Canyon will be sacrificed up front on the pace for his stablemate Soldier of Fortune, but if he doesnt get near the lead beware that longshot speed like Out of Control or even Winchester could steal it with a slow pace.
Breeders Cup Pick 6 Leg 6 Breeders Cup Classic
Breeders Cup Classic Pick 6 Horses Curlin, Henrythenavigator, Go Between, Duke of Marmalade, Colonel John
Breeders Cup Classic Secondary Choices None
Theres no question who this race goes through and everybody knows it Curlin. But there are a lot of things not to like about this superstar in this years Breeders Cup Classic. Sure he broke Cigars earning record and hes won his last two starts, the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Woodward, but he just hasnt looked like his old self lately. And hes unproven over Pro-Ride. We think he might make his move early, as we thought Indian Blessing would do and she did. So were going to try to beat him. Could he win this? No question. Well be using him on straight numbers, but with a few others. Go Between looked good winning the Pacific Classic with Gomez aboard, so hes proven over this surface and he has a rider who knows how to time his run perfectly. We just dont know if hell be able to beat the Europeans if one of them fires their best shot. Duke of Marmalade won five Group 1 races in Europe before losing the Arc de Triomphe to Zarkava and certainly fits on class. Henrythenavigator ran second in Englands Queen Elizabeth behind fellow Classic entrant Ravens Pass, but has an excellent stamina pedigree and apparently has been wanting more distance. Longshot sleeper, as is Ravens Pass, on class. Casino Drive looks like a good horse and does have a win over the surface, but how can he beat these without seasoning under fire against good horses. We think he could run big and run out of air late. Well be using Colonel John. We bet him in the Kentucky Derby and he wasnt mature enough to win that race at the time. His win in the Travers was exactly what we thought it would be, and despite the rumors that the only reason he won that race was because he got a better trip than Mambo In Seattle, we think he ran big. Hes also training well.
Ok, go win a million dollars now in the Breeders Cup Pick 6!
You have my permission.