Breeders’ Cup Picks and Analysis for Saturday, October 31, 2015
The 14 Hands Winery Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies-G1 Picks and Analysis
Race 3, Keeneland, 2YO Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles, Dirt, Purse $2 Million
2. Rachel’s Valentina
4. Dothraki Queen
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Longshot:Ma Can Do It
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California-based Songbird is the best filly in this race and win or lose we’ll be singling her in multi-race bets, although her win price might not be very enticing. New York-based Rachel’s Valentina has a similar look and is also undefeated after winning her second start in the Spinaway-G1 at Saratoga. This looks like a two-horse race. Nickname won the sloppy Frizette-G1 at Belmont in her last, has some speed and Javier Castellano in the saddle helps her chances. Dothraki Queen and Ma Can Do It finished second and third respectively over this track, albeit in the slop, in the Alchibades-G1 and have a longshot chances if the favorites falter.
TwinSpires Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint-G1 Predictions and Analysis
Race 4, Keeneland, 3YO and Up, 5 1/2 Furlongs, Turf, Purse $1 Million
1. Pure Sensation
2. Lady Shipman
3. No Silent
4. Ready for Rye
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint Longshots:Green Mask, Bobby’s Kitten
This will be a crazy race that anybody could win, although the favorites are logical. Pure Sensation will probably be the best value play despite breaking from the rail for top jock Johnny Velazquez and trainer Christophe Clement. Lady Shipman is a proven commodity at a short price. No Silent comes into this race off three straight wins and gets Gary Stevens, who certainly knows how to win Breeders’ Cup races. Ready for Rye has also won three in a row and would not be a surprise under new jockey Victor Espinoza, as Castellano moves to Bobby’s Kitten. Does that angle mean anything? We’re not sure. He might just be riding for one of his main stables. Green Mask looks like a live longshot at 15-1 for trainer Wesley Ward and top jockey Joel Rosario. Ward also saddles Undrafted in here at 4-1. He also has a shot but the odds will not be to our liking. Bobby’s Kitten won this race last year and should be used at least underneath in your superfectas.
TwinSpires Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint-G1 Picks and Analysis
Race 5, Keeneland, 3YO and Up, 7 Furlongs, Dirt, Purse $1 Million
3. Dame Dorothy
4. Judy the Beauty
We’ll go with Cavorting in here despite the fact that she drew horribly in Post 14. She’s won three in a row and is on top of her game right now and also has Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle, one of our favorite New York jockeys. Taris cooked herself in a duel in her first start off a layoff in her last but that should prove a perfect tightener for this and she does have top jock Gary Stevens. How about from just off the pace today at a nice 12-1 morning line. Dame Dorothy is 4/5 at the distance and Judy the Beauty is the defending champ.
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf-G1 Picks and Analysis
Race 6, Keeneland, 3YO and Up, Fillies and Mares, 1 3/16 Miles, Turf, Purse $2 Million
3. Secret Gesture
4. Miss France
This race goes through European star Legatissimo, who comes into the Filly and Mare Turf off two Group 1 wins in England. She has a class edge on this bunch and wins if she runs her race. Dacita won her first start in North America in the Ballston Spa-G2 after arriving from Chile and looked good doing it. She now moves up in class but Castellano sticks with her and she should like the added distance. Secret Gesture also won her first start in North America in her last, the Beverly D-G1, but was disqualified for drifting. She picks up hot jock Florent Geroux and also runs well fresh. We might have Miss France ranked too low and she could definitely complete the exactor here with Frankie Dettori aboard for trainer Andre Fabre. Heck she could even win the race, but she has does seem to have seconditis, finishing in that spot in her last four races in Europe
TwinSpires Breeders’ Cup Sprint-G1 Picks and Analysis
Race 7, Keeneland, 3YO and Up, 6 Furlongs, Dirt, Purse $1.5 Million
2. Ivan Fallunovalot
3. Wild Dude
4. Private Zone
Breeders’ Cup Sprint Longshots:Favorite Tale, Salutos Amigos
We’ve liked Runhappy ever since he broke his maiden in green and fun fashion. There is other speed in here, and this is easily the best field he’s faced in his 5-for-6 career, but he simply loves to run and we’re sticking with him at what should be a decent price. Ivan Fallunovalot will be a huge longshot be he could stalk a pace battle between Runhappy, Private Zone and maybe a few others that outbreak the speed. He’s won 11 of 19 starts including his last two and at 30-1 on the morning line we’d love to see him complete our exactor. Wild Dude is another who could take advantage of a pace battle and he’ll need one to win. Possible favorite Private Zone is the proven class speed and could win at an unenticing price if he can shake off Runhappy early enough. We don’t see that happening. Favorite Tale could get a good trip just behind the speed and should be considered a live longshot with Castellano. And if the track comes up sloppy, Salutos Amigos is 6-for-6 in the wet stuff.
Breeders’ Cup Mile-G1 Picks and Analysis
Race 8, Keeneland, 3YO and Up, 1 Mile, Turf, Purse $2 Million
2. Make Believe
We love this race. We cashed on it last year with Karakontie at 30-1. Remember! And he’s back again this year and listed at 12-1. We just have to stick with him at that price. And he’s been pointing for this race all year. Esoterique is the best horse on class off his latest win in the Sun Chariot-G1 in England and Make Believe also classes up on his Prix de la Foret-G1 win in France in his last. He also has trainer Andre Fabre in his corner, but will be a short price. Impassible is stepping up in class off a decent Group 2 win but could be up to the task in a wide open race. If the turf is soft throw in longshot Mondialiste, who did win the Woodbine Mile-G1 in his last over yielding turf. Shadwell Joel Stakes-G2 winner Time Test is a decent sort but does want firm ground. We’re sticking with our winner from last year.
Sentient Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-G1 Picks and Analysis
Race 9, Keeneland, 2YO Colts and Geldings, 1 1/16 Miles, Dirt, Purse $2 Million
4. Brody’s Cause
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Longshots:Unbridled Outlaw, Waterloo Bridge
We’ll take a shot on Exaggerator off his troubled trip in his last and his improving pattern for the same rider trainer team that pulled the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile upset with Texas Red last year. He’s more of a price play than a standout. Greenpointcrusader comes into the Juvenile off a good win in the Champagne Stakes-G1 at Belmont. Logical. Nyquist is undefeated and the best 2-year-old in California. He could also get the best trip of the bunch at nice odds of 9/2 or better. Brody’s Cause won the Breeders’ Futurity-G1 on a muddy Keeneland surface in his last but could be a little up against it coming from farther back than usual against better horses. If it rains his chances are upgraded. Unbridled Outlaw looks like an excellent longshot after being checked hard in the Iroquois Stakes-G3 at Churchill Downs. We’ll also throw European Waterloo Bridge into our superfecta simply because we can’t figure out why trainer Aiden O’ Brien brought him over here and he will be huge odds. He is a Grade 2 winner on turf.
Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf-G1 Picks and Analysis
Race 10, Keeneland, 3YO and Up, 1 1/2 Miles, Turf, Purse $3 Million
1. Golden Horn
2. The Pizza Man
4. Big Blue Kitten
The Breeders’ Cup Turf is Golden Horn’s race to lose. He completely outclasses this field off his wins in the Arc de Tromphe-G1 and Investec Derby-G1 this summer and fall in Europe and if he feels like running today it’s over. The Pizza Man may be a bit of sleeper. Some don’t think he measures up on class, but our feeling is that he sets a target at the wire and tries to get their first, no matter what the distance or competition level. Like Golden Horn, he can sit close or rally from far back and if the favorite doesn’t feel like running today this could be your guy. Found finished only a length behind Golden Horn this summer In the Irish Champion Stakes-G1 and probably classes up pretty good here despite the fact that she is a 3-year-old filly. This kind beats older horses, including males, all the time in Europe, and the jockey trainer combo of Moore and O’Brien are 4-for-15 in Grade 1 turf races in North America. We’ll take the consistent Big Blue Kitten to rally into the superfecta.
Breeders’ Cup Classic-G1 Picks and Analysis
Race 11, Keeneland, 3YO and Up, 1 1/4 Miles, Dirt, Purse $5 Million
1. American Pharoah
2. Honor Code
3. Keen Ice
Breeders’ Cup Classic Longshots:Effinex, Gleneagles
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With the scratch of Beholder, Triple Crown winner American Pharoah should be the lone speed in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and he will take some beating in that role. If anyone goes with him early they lose. Fellow Classic entrant Frosted learned that the hard way in the Travers Stakes and set the race up for Keen Ice, who is also in here.
Honor Code reminds us of the mighty Forego at times and he is good enough to win this, but he’ll likely need someone to push Pharoah early. He also sits farther off the pace than is probably ideal based on the way the Keeneland surface played yesterday. In his favor is one of the best trainers in the world in “Shug” McGaughey.
The same could be said for Effinex, who has trainer Jimmy Jerkens, son of the late Hall of Famer and “Giant Killer” H. Allen Jerkens, at the helm. The elder Jerkens passed away this spring and left a massive hole in the ranks of the world’s true thoroughbred horsemen. He was the best we ever saw and we’d like nothing more than to see Jimmy pick up the Giant Killer mantle and win this race. Effinex is however, only our sentimental longshot. Keen Ice should rally for a piece, but the real wild card is Gleneagles. What is he doing in here? He’s certainly got talent on the grass, having won five Group 1 races in a row in Europe before finishing sixth in his last start.
If American Pharoah doesn’t win this race anyone could.