Breeders’ Cup Picks and Superfecta Longshot Predictions for Saturday, November 5, 2011
by Kenneth Strong, Breeders Cup Handicapper, Predictem.com
We did better than most handicappers yesterday, hitting 3/6 winners and getting out on the last race with the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic superfecta. That gave us some profit to play with today.Hope you did as well. Tough races early, but if you can nail them the payoffs should be lucrative.
Make sure to save some money for later on the card when the races are (a little) easier to decipher.What a chess game handicapping the Breeders’ Cup is every year. But it’s always fun!
Good luck today!
Breeders’ Cup Marathon
Churchill Downs, Race 3, November 5, 2011, 1:20 pm
Purse $500,000. 3-and-Up. One And Three Quarter Miles.
Wagering Key: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Breeders’ Cup Marathon Picks
1. Birdrun
2. Cease
3. Pleasant Prince
4. Eldaafer
Breeders’ Cup Marathon Superfecta and Trifecta Inclusions: Birdrun looks like the lone speed and makes his second start off the layoff for trainer Bill Mott. Come and catch him. Both Cease and Pleasant Prince have won on dirt, have excellent stamina pedigrees and look like they could move forward. Eldaafer won this race last year and would not be a surprise despite not looking as sharp as he did than. Brigantin is proven in graded stakes at the distance. European Harrison’s Cave gets first time Lasix and is an intriguing longshot with proven stamina and top trainer O’Brien at the helm. A. U. Miner will probably head straight to the fence with Borel aboard and could rally into the superfecta but he certainly isn’t enticing at odds of 3-1. We’d rather take European Meeznah at 12-1 and a win at the distance.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
Churchill Downs, Race 4, November 5, 2011, 2:02 pm
Purse $1,000,000. 2-Year-Old Colts And Geldings. One Mile. (Turf)
Wagering Key: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7)
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Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Picks
1 Animal Spirits
2. Fantastic Song
3. Finale
4. State of Play
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Superfecta and Trifecta Inclusions: Lots of youngsters in here on the improve and three Europeans makes this race wide open so we’ll take a shot with mid-range longshot Fantastic Song first and second with a bunch on both the rider and trainer angle. If State of Play can clear to the lead from Post 14 he has a shot to wire the field. This appears to be the toughest race on the card. Any horse can win. Use ALL on your multiple-race wagers.
Breeders’ Cup Sprint
Churchill Downs, Race 5, November 5, 2011, 2:37 pm
Purse $1,500,000. 3-and-Up. Six Furlongs
Wagering Key: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)
Breeders’ Cup Sprint Picks
1. Big Drama
2. Giant Ryan
3. Force Freeze
4. Apriority
Breeders’ Cup Sprint Superfecta and Trifecta Inclusions: Big Drama won this race last year and can repeat if he can turn back Giant Ryan and likely rallier Force Freeze. Apriority missed by only a nose in his only start at Churchill and should rally late at a nice price. Amazombie’s best races put him in the thick of things. The same goes for Euroears. Jackson Bend can also rally for a piece. We’ll probably key the intelligently managed, fresh and tough Big Drama first and second with our main selections and the few others mentioned in this paragraph. Not spending too much on this superfecta, as it looks like it could be dominated by favorites.
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
Churchill Downs, Race 6, November 5, 2011, 3:21 pm
Purse $1,000,000. 3-and-Up. Five Furlongs. (Turf)
Wagering Key: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) Pick 6 (Races 6-11)
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint Picks
1. California Flag
2. Carcortado
3. Regally Ready
4. Havelock
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint Superfecta and Trifecta Inclusions: California Flag won this race in 2009 and subsequently went off form, but he looked good winning his last on the rider switch to Pat Valenzuela, who is back aboard today, so we’ll take a shot with him at a great price. Caracortado has been facing much better at longer distances and has a sharp recent work that should help him handle the cut back in distance. Class play. Regally Ready is the logical favorite being 2-for-2 at Churchill Downs at this distance on the turf. Havelock can rally for a share, as can 2010 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner Chamberlain Bridge, who drew the widest post. The speedy Rapport is a good longshot for the supers, as are Holiday for Kitten, Hoofit and Broken Dreams. Very tough race to pick. We’re just hoping California Flag can grab one of the top two spots while surrounded by longshots.
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
Churchill Downs, Race 7, November 5, 2011, 4:01 pm
Purse $1,000,000. 3-and-Up. One Mile
Wagering Key: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Picks
1. Wilburn
2. Trappe Shot
3. Caleb’s Posse
4. Jersey Town
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Superfecta and Trifecta Inclusions: Wilburn is full of confidence with three wins in a row and this race should set up for him. Trappe Shot and Caleb’s Posse can also take advantage of an expected duel, as can Jersey Town. In fact, Jersey Town’s best race could win this and his workouts say he’s ready to run a big one. The remainder of the entrants besides Tres Borrachos are basically all speed so we’re thinking the way to play this race is to use our four selections as our main keys in the Superfecta with ALL in the third and fourth slots and hope a bomber like Tres Borrachos slips into the superfecta along with the lone survivor of an expected duel. The odds on Tres Borrachos might be too high at 30-1, yet he could go off at higher odds than that, despite the fact that he has been running against horses that would womp this bunch.
Breeders’ Cup Turf
Churchill Downs, Race 8, November 5, 2011, 4:34 pm
Purse $3,000,000. 3-and-Up. One And One Half Miles. (Turf)
Wagering Key: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) Pick 4 (Races 8-9-10-11)
Breeders’ Cup Turf Picks
1. Sarafina
2. Sea Moon
3. Midday
4. St. Nicholas Abbey
Breeders’ Cup Turf Superfecta and Trifecta Inclusions: Sea Moon would have been our pick if allowed to work on the turf. He had legitimate trouble in his last and looks like a fresh improving horse who could still win this. Sarafina has looked good in the morning and is the class play, as she is expected to return to best form after a seventh place finish in the Arc. Midday and St. Nicholas Abbey are obvious inclusions here on class. Await the Dawn gets first-time Lasix and top jock Leparoux and will probably be better odds than he should be. Longshots with a chance to finish in the money are Dean’s Kitten and Teaks North. Seems like we mentioned every horse in the race… but not quite.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Churchill Downs, Race 9, November 5, 2011, 5:25 pm
Purse $2,000,000. 2-Year-Old Colts And Geldings. One And One Sixteenth Miles.
Wagering Key: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11)
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Picks
1. Union Rags
2. Creative Cause
3. Drill
4. Dullahan
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Superfecta and Trifecta Inclusions: Union City was impressive in his last. Creative Cause, Dullahan, Prospective and Alpha all look like they could move forward off their prep races. Alpha’s reported trouble behind Union City in his last was overrated. He was never going to beat Union City in that race. Not sure what to make of Hansen. He beat up on much easier and will get a severe class test here but… he might just be that good. Europeans Daddy Long Legs and Crusade probably fit on class underneath Union Rags if they can handle the track. Fort Loudon moves up in class and has a tough wide post, but he has won four in a row. He’d have to improve quite a bit to win this but could still finish in the money with a move forward.
Breeders’ Cup Mile
Churchill Downs, Race 10, November 5, 2011, 6:07 pm
Purse $2,000,000. 3-and-Up. One Mile. (Turf)
Wagering Key: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 10-11-12)
Breeders’ Cup Mile Picks
1. Goldikova
2. Gio Ponti
3. Courageous Cat
4. Byword
Breeders’ Cup Classic Superfecta and Trifecta Inclusions: Goldikova has lost a step but she should be just good enough to win the photo here if she can get a good trip. Same goes for Gio Ponti, but he’s more likely to be second or third. Courageous Cat moved too early in his last and jockey Patrick Valenzuela is unlikely to make that mistake again. Byword races without medication but has class and top trainer Andre Fabre in his corner. Fellow European Strong Suit also has enough class to win this but has a wide post and we don’t know how he’ll handle the turns. Turallure has wide post 13 but if he can work out a covered up trip as he did in the Woodbine Mile he could be your late rallying long bomb. Jeranimo looked dynamite winning his last and can’t be discounted. Mr. Commons can rally for a share. Zoffany is off form but has enough back class to topple these with his best race and should be monster odds. This race could very well be decided by who gets the best trip.
Breeders’ Cup Classic
Churchill Downs, Race 11, November 5, 2011, 7 pm
Purse $5,000,000. 3-and-Up. One And One Quarter Miles.
Wagering Key: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double / Super High Five
Breeders’ Cup Classic Picks
1. To Honor and Serve
2. Havre de Grace
3. Flat Out
4. So You Think
Breeders’ Cup Classic Superfecta and Trifecta Inclusions: What happens if Game On Dude and Uncle Mo go at it early. We’re guessing Game On Dude puts Uncle Mo away and fights on gamely before tiring. In that scenario any of the remainder of the field have a shot at the superfecta. If either Game On Dude or Uncle Mo gets loose they could wire the field. Game On Dude is tough as nails under pressure and will get the distance, Uncle Mo we’re not so sure about. So You Think is the class of the race, but he’s had a tough European campaign and he’s never run on dirt. If he has one more big race in him this year, his best is good enough to beat these. To Honor and Serve looked powerful winning his last and has trainer Bill Mott in his corner – the best in the business. Mott won the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic on Friday.
Good Luck!
