RB Lewis Stakes Analysis & Picks
$100,000 RB Lewis Stakes-G3, Race 6, Santa Anita, 1 1/16 Miles
RB Lewis Stakes Picks
- 1. Thousand Words
- 2. Encoder
- 3. High Velocity
RB Lewis Stakes Analysis
Thousands Words is definitely the horse to beat. The million-dollar yearling was very game winning the Los Alamitos Futurity-G2 going 1 1/16-miles in in his second lifetime start on December 7, dueling into the stretch, shaking his inside rival and then finding more to defeat last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner up Anneau D Or. Trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Flavien Prat, he should prove tough to get by in the stretch drive.
Encoder has never run on the dirt but he does have some class to him. He was only beaten 3 ½-lengths last year in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint-G2 and he won the $100,000 Eddie Logan Stakes going a mile in his last start on December 29. Has some talent and now has to transfer it to the dirt. New rider today in Mike Smith is certainly capable and the price will be right.
High Velocity looks like the speed of the RB Lewis and his game will likely be to try and steal it, but he tried that in the Los Alamitos Futurity and he couldn’t stay with Thousand Words from mid stretch. Unless the track is really favoring speed we can’t see hm turning the tables on his main rival here, and even then it would be a stretch.
Tizamagician took six starts to break his maiden but did look good doing just that on January 1 at Santa Anita going a mile on the dirt. He’ll likely be close to the pace in here, and while he could have some upside, we’re not sure he’s quite ready to tackle the likes of Thousand Words just yet.
Royal Act makes his first start on the dirt and gets blinkers on after running an even fifth in Encoder’s Eddie Logan. Unless he improves miraculously on the dirt, it’s hard to see him finishing in the money with these.
Zimba Warrior probably ran better than it looks in his last race, the Sham Stakes-G3 on January 4, behind runway winner Authentic, but in his start previous to that he was beaten 5 ¾-lengths by High Velocity in the Bob Hope-G3. At 15-1 he should probably be used in your exactas underneath, but he will need a dream trip.
We can’t go against Thousand Words. He should press High Velocity, put that one away and hold off Encoder in the drive, with Zimba Warrior and Tizmagician rallying to try and steal the exacta spot from Encoder.
If you love game horses, Thousands Words should be fun to watch here.