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Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres Pick (7/27/18)

by | Jul 27, 2018 | mlb

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres (7/27/18)
Time: 10:10 PM ET
Venue: Petco Park
Location: San Diego, California
TV: FOX Sports-AZ & FOX Sports-SD
Moneyline: Arizona (-172) / San Diego (+162)
Over/Under: 7.5

It’s a National League West battle at Petco Park in San Diego, California Friday night. The Arizona Diamondbacks, fresh off a crushing defeat at Wrigley Field head back west to face the San Diego Padres. This is the eighth meeting of 19 slated for the season between these two clubs. Arizona’s in the hunt for a playoff berth, while San Diego’s firmly in the basement of the National League Standings. The Padres had the day off Thursday, after enduring a long and unsuccessful road trip. Arizona leads the season series 4-3 thus far, outscoring the Padres 40-24. Diamondbacks Ace Zack Greinke gets the ball Friday night while struggling Luis Perdomo gets the nod for the hometown Padres.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks come into this one after splitting a four-game set at Wrigley Field. Arizona’s lost back-to-back heartbreakers (2-1 & 7-6). In Thursday afternoon’s game, the D-backs led 6-4 heading into the bottom of the ninth. Unfortunately, they gave up back-to-back homers (2-run & solo) to blow the game late. David Bote (.326 AVG, 2 HR, 11 RBI & .421 OBP) hit the two-run dinger to tie it, and teammate Anthony Rizzo (.261 AVG, 13 HR, 67 RBI & .362 OBP) backed it up with the game-winning solo shot.

Consequently, the D-backs are 56-48 (.538) on the year which is good for second place in the National League West Division right now. Arizona’s just one game behind Division-leader Los Angeles. The snakes have the sixth-best offense in the National League, having plated 461 runs so far. Their pitching staff has been outstanding, allowing just 407 runs which is second-best in the NL. Arizona’s +54 run differential is fourth-best in the National League. On the road, the D-backs have accrued a 29-23 (.558) record thus far.

Padres Packed Already

At 42-63 (.400) on the year, it appears the Padres season is already a lost cause. San Diego’s in fifth place in the NL West Standings, 15.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Padres own the worst record in the National League to this point. Coming into this one, the Padres lost back-to-back games at Citi Field to the New York Mets (6-3 & 6-4). Thursday was a travel day and day off for the struggling Padres, so maybe the day of rest will spur them in the right direction as they begin a homestand versus Arizona Friday night.

San Diego has poor numbers across the board this season. Essentially, the Padres stink for lack of a better word. Their offense is tied for the worst in the NL with the New York Mets (390 runs scored), and their pitching staff is third worst in the NL having allowed 497 runs thus far. The Padres -107 run differential is second worst in the National League. Friday night’s game gives the Padres an opportunity to notch one in the win column. However, San Diego’s won the fewest home games of any National League club this season. Their record at Petco Park is 20-31 (.392).

Ace vs. Scrub

The pitching matchup in this one gives the visitors a monumental edge from the get-go. Arizona’s Zack Greinke (11-5, 3.05 ERA & 1.06 WHIP) is a bonafide ace, and San Diego’s Luis Perdomo (1-5, 6.99 ERA & 1.90 WHIP) is a certified scrub. In his last seven starts, Greinke’s 6-0 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Greinke’s 5-0 in his previous five road starts with a 1.68 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. In 19 career starts versus San Diego, Greinke’s 10-2 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.93 WHIP.

To the contrary, Perdomo’s numbers are complete and utter garbage. In eight starts this season, he’s gone 1-5 with a 6.99 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. In his last three starts, Perdomo’s 0-3 with a 7.33 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Believe it or not, Perdomo’s been even worse than that at home this year. In four starts at Petco Park, Perdomo’s gone 0-4 with an 11.44 ERA and 2.49 ERA.

Value = D-backs

We are confident you, our astute reader, has already inferred who we’re siding with in this lopsided clash. Let us explain a little further as to why though. The oddsmakers have San Diego +162 on the opening money line, which means they’d need to win 38.2% of the time to justify a bet on them. According to our calculations, the Padres have a 25% chance to win this one. So, don’t bet on them unless you dig the -13.2% disadvantage and losing money in general. If you want to make the prudent choice, it must be taking the Arizona Diamondbacks (-172) on the money line. With a 75% chance to win the game, we have an 11.8% edge against the number riding with the D-backs. Arizona’s simply a superior team. They have an infinitely better pitcher on the mound and a playoff race to keep pace in to boot. San Diego’s just a dumpster fire, and nobody should ever put money in a fire even if you’re a pyromaniac. It’s just bad policy. Arizona -172 is the best play on the card today. We won’t hesitate to take advantage of it and neither should you. This line will probably balloon into the two-hundreds near game-time, so get those winning wagers in early like the other sharps with a more optimal price point. Editors note: Speaking of which, get the best lines from our recommended baseball sportsbooks.