Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick

by | Last updated Oct 3, 2023 | mlb

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Date: Tuesday, October 3rd, 7:08 ET
Location: American Family Field
Money Line: Diamondbacks +153/Brewers -183
Total Line: 8

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, October 3rd at American Family Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

ML RL Total
ARI +153 +1.5 O 8 (-110)
MIL -183 -1.5 U 8 (-110)

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Projected Lineup

Batting Order Position
Corbin Carroll 1 RF
Ketel Marte 2 2B
Tommy Pham 3 LF
Christian Walker 4 1B
Alek Thomas 5 CF
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 6 DH
Gabriel Moreno 7 C
Jace Peterson 8 3B
Geraldo Perdomo 9 SS
Brandon Pfaadt SP

Batting Order Position
Christian Yelich 1 LF
William Contreras 2 C
Carlos Santana 3 1B
Mark Canha 4 RF
Willy Adames 5 SS
Rowdy Tellez 6 DH
Brice Turang 7 2B
Andruw Monasterio 8 3B
Garrett Mitchell 9 CF
Corbin Burnes SP

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Arizona Diamondbacks: 84-78 SU / OU 71-83 / Runline 88-74
Milwaukee Brewers: 92-70 SU / OU 72-85 / Runline 79-83

Heading into their game vs. the Brewers, the Diamondbacks have a record of 84-78 and have dropped four straight games. In the NL West, they are in 2nd place and have an overall series record of 28-20-3. At home, they have gone 43-38 and 41-40 on the road.

  • The Diamondbacks have covered the runline in 54.3% of their games and have an average run margin of -0.1
  • The Diamondbacks have been favored in 45.7% of their games and have runline records of 44-37 and 44-37 at home and on the road, respectively
  • So far, the Diamondbacks have an over/under record of just 71-83.

The Brewers head into today’s game in first place in the NL Central on a record of 92-70. Over their last ten games, they have put together an above .500 record of 6-4. At home, Milwaukee is 49-32 and 43-38 on the road. Their overall series record comes in at 29-19-2.

  • The Brewers have covered the runline in 48.8% of their games and have an average run margin of 0.5
  • The Brewers have been favored in 55.6% of their games and have runline records of 35-46 and 44-37 at home and on the road, respectively
  • So far, the Brewers have an over/under record of just 72-85.

Pitching Matchup

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
Brandon Pfaadt 19 18 96 3-9 5.72 1.41 22

Brandon Pfaadt heads into the game with an overall record of 3-9 and an ERA of 5.72. In his nine appearances on the road, he has an ERA of 5.78 and record of 1-4. At home, he has put together a mark of 2-5 and ERA of 7.99. His season-long WHIP stands at 1.41, accompanied by a batting average allowed of .279. Teams facing him have amassed a slugging percentage of .528.

The last time, Brandon Pfaadt took the mound, he gave up zero runs on five hits to the White Sox. Pfaadt picked up the win, in the Diamondbacks’ 3-0 victory.

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
Corbin Burnes 32 32 193 10-8 3.39 1.07 22

Milwaukee will give the starting nod to Corbin Burnes, entering with a record of 10-8. Burnes is on a two game streak of finishing with fewer than three earned runs allowed. So far, his ERA is 3.39, including a FIP figure of 3.81. Overall, opponents have a slugging percentage of .317 against him. Burnes’ strikeout total currently sits at 200.

Looking back at Burnes’ last appearance, he allowed five hits across four innings of work. Overall, he finished with zero earned runs. Despite not factoring into the decision, the Brewers won by a score of 3-0 over the Cardinals.

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Offense Outlook

This season, Arizona is 14th in the league in terms of runs scored, averaging 4.6 runs per game. Their home run count is currently around the league average, with 166 long balls hit. The team’s current batting average of .250 is 10th in the league, while their away batting average is ranked 18th compared to 7th at home.

Arizona Diamondbacks Top Hitters vs. Righties

Corbin Carroll .284 20 .544 .386
Christian Walker .259 20 .473 .342
Ketel Marte .260 20 .481 .354
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. .252 20 .474 .326
Geraldo Perdomo .247 6 .375 .329

Arizona Diamondbacks Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Corbin Carroll .271 4 2 0 .542
Tommy Pham .167 2 0 0 .167
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. .250 4 0 0 .312
Gabriel Moreno .146 2 0 0 .208
Jace Peterson .278 2 1 0 .278

With an average of 4.5 runs per game, Milwaukee is 16th in the league for runs scored this season. They have hit a combined total of 165 home runs, putting them 21st in the league. Their current batting average of .240 is 16th in baseball. When playing on the road, their batting average is ranked 22nd, compared to 20th when playing at home.

Milwaukee Brewers Top Bats

Christian Yelich .278 .370 .447 76 19 28
William Contreras .291 .369 .459 78 17 6
Carlos Santana .240 .318 .429 86 23 6

Milwaukee Brewers Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Carlos Santana .287 4 3 1 .812
William Contreras .357 6 4 0 .423
Tyrone Taylor .237 4 2 1 .600
Christian Yelich .500 4 2 0 .611
Willy Adames .358 5 0 0 .492

Free MLB Pick

For game one of this NL Wild Card matchup, I’ll be targeting the run total for my pick. I’m expecting a good start out of Corbin Burnes and even though Brandon Pfaadt doesn’t have great numbers, I don’t have a lot of confidence in the Brewers offense. I’m taking the under at 8 runs.

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