Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game 6 Pick & Analysis

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Date: Monday, October 23rd, 5:07 ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park
TV: TBS
Money Line: Diamondbacks +159/Phillies -193
Total Line: 8

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Diamondbacks on Monday, October 23rd at Citizens Bank Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Projected Lineup

	Batting Order	Position
Corbin Carroll	1	RF
Ketel Marte	2	2B
Tommy Pham	3	LF
Christian Walker	4	1B
Gabriel Moreno	5	C
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	6	DH
Alek Thomas	7	CF
Evan Longoria	8	3B
Geraldo Perdomo	9	SS
Merrill Kelly	–	SP




	Batting Order	Position
Kyle Schwarber	1	DH
Trea Turner	2	SS
Bryce Harper	3	1B
Alec Bohm	4	3B
Bryson Stott	5	2B
J.T. Realmuto	6	C
Nick Castellanos	7	RF
Brandon Marsh	8	LF
Johan Rojas	9	CF
Aaron Nola	–	SP




Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Arizona Diamondbacks: 84-78 SU / OU 76-88 / Runline 95-77
Philadelphia Phillies: 90-72 SU / OU 80-82 / Runline 80-93

Heading into their game vs. the Phillies, the Diamondbacks have a record of 84-78 and have dropped four straight games. In the NL West, they are in 2nd place and have an overall series record of 31-21-3. At home, they have gone 43-38 and 41-40 on the road.

• The Diamondbacks have covered the runline in 55.2% of their games and have an average run margin of -0.1
• The Diamondbacks have been favored in 43.0% of their games and have runline records of 47-38 and 48-39 at home and on the road, respectively
• So far, the Diamondbacks have an over/under record of just 76-88.

With an overall record of 90-72, the Phillies are in 2nd place in the NL East, trailing by 14 games. Over their last ten games, they are above .500 at 7-3. On the road, the Phillies have a mark of 41-40 while going 49-32 at home. Their overall series mark stands at 31-19-4.

• The Phillies have covered the runline in 46.2% of their games and have an average run margin of 0.7
• The Phillies have been favored in 68.2% of their games and have runline records of 40-47 and 40-46 at home and on the road, respectively
• So far, the Phillies have an over/under record of just 80-82.

Pitching Matchup




Starter Merrill Kelly comes in with an overall record of 12-8 for the Diamondbacks. Having made 32 appearances, his ERA is 3.29 and he has a K/9 figure of 9.47. Additionally, he has a FIP of 3.85 and an OBP of .289.

Merrill Kelly is coming off an outing against the Phillies in which he allowed four runs on three hits in 5 2/3 innings of work, taking the loss. The Diamondbacks lost the game by a score of 10-0.




Across 35 appearances, Aaron Nola has a slugging percentage allowed of .416 and enters with a WHIP of 1.15. His overall record is 12-9 on an ERA of 4.46. For the season, he has a total of 202 K’s, and is averaging 9.39 strikeouts per nine innings. Nola’s record on the road is 6-6 and 9-3 at home. This includes an ERA of 5.89 (road) and 3.08 (home), respectively.

In his last outing, Aaron Nola finished with a quality start and picked up the win in a 10-0 victory over the Diamondbacks. Nola gave up zero runs and three hits across six innings.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Offense Outlook

This season, Arizona is currently ranked 14th in the league in terms of runs scored, averaging 4.6 runs per game. Their home run count currently stands at 166, which is 20th in the MLB. The team’s batting average of .250 is 10th in the league, including 20th on the road compared to 8th at home.

Arizona Diamondbacks Top Hitters vs. Righties




Arizona Diamondbacks Top Hitters: Last Five Games




On offense, Philadelphia is 8th in the league with an average of 4.9 runs per game. When looking at their home run numbers, they are 7th, having hit 220 homers. Their overall batting average is .256, including .240 on the road and .259 at home.

Philadelphia Phillies Team Hitting Stats




Philadelphia Phillies Top Hitters: Last Five Games




Free MLB Pick

Heading into game six, the Phillies are the heavy favorite to close things out and punch their ticket to the World Series. Although the D-Backs had an excellent post-season run, I see it coming to an end tonight. I like Aaron Nola and the Phillies on the moneyline.