Astros vs. Mariners Predictions 8/30/21

by | Aug 30, 2021 | mlb

Houston Astros (77-53) vs. Seattle Mariners (70-61)

When: 10:10 p.m., Monday, August 30

Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle

Moneyline: HOU -150/SEA +140 (BetOnline - Currently offering a Westgate SuperContest style NFL handicapping contest online with a 200K 1st Prize!)

Runline: Astros -1.5/Mariners +1.5

Total: 8.5

Starting Pitchers: Luis Garcia (10-6, 3.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) vs. Chris Flexen (11-5, 3.54 ERA, 1.24 WHIP)

Seattle’s Last Stand

If it doesn’t happen here, it’s not going to happen for the Mariners. With both New York and Boston pulling away in the wild card race, Seattle’s best hope for the postseason is to catch the Astros by winning the majority of their head-to-head matchups against Houston. As such, the Mariners have to go into this series thinking sweep or bust. Given that the Astros follow with a trip to San Diego and the Mariners get a visit to Arizona, it’s not unreasonable to think that Seattle could close the gap to a manageable 3.5 games by the end of the week if they can take advantage of the schedule.

Houston, on the other hand, simply has to hold serve. The Astros can essentially choke off Seattle’s hopes if they can get two out of three, and even one of three would likely be enough to keep them in a strong position. With that being the case, the big question is how aggressive the Astros want to be, as all they need to get in this series is one game in order for this to be a successful trip. They didn’t get the job done against the Rangers, and a repeat performance in this series could open the door.

The Man for the Job?

On paper, Chris Flexen would seem to be the right man for this task for Seattle, as he’s been dynamite at home all season long. However, whether he is suitable for this spot is questionable because Seattle has come out on the losing end in four out of five meetings with Houston and Oakland when Flexen has been on the hill.

If he pitches as he has in his most recent starts, the Mariners should be in pretty good shape, as Flexen has held Seattle’s past five opponents to two runs or less while he’s been on the hill. The Mariners have won four of those starts, with the lone exception coming when the red-hot Yankees blew up the bullpen in the sixth inning after Flexen left the contest. Given Seattle’s recent bullpen struggles, a first-five bet might be the better play in this one.

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 (House of Horrors

The last time Luis Garcia made the trip to the Pacific Northwest to take on the Mariners, he experienced a night he’d rather forget. On the one hand, he recorded nine strikeouts, usually an excellent sign for a pitcher who tends to make a living on missing bats. On the other, he also gave up five earned runs in 4.2 innings of work, and the Mariners went on to an 11-8 win.
So far, Seattle has had Garcia’s number, having picked up a pair of wins with him on the slab and done in different ways. Garcia was brilliant against the Mariners back in April, as he went five innings and held Seattle to just three hits for the game. The problem was, one of the hits was a home run from Taylor Trammell, which proved to be the only run of the game in a 1-0 Seattle victory.

Betting Trends

  • The Astros are 4-1 in their past five overall.
  • The Astros are 1-4 in their past five Monday games.
  • The Mariners have won six straight Monday games.
  • The Mariners are 9-4 in their past 13 games as a home underdog.
  • The under is 3-2-1 in the Astros’ past six games.
  • The over is 4-1-1 in the Astros’ past six against the AL West.
  • The over is 5-1 in the Mariners’ past five as a home dog.
  • The under is 9-3 I the Mariners’ past 12 Monday games.
  • The over is 6-0 in the past six meetings.
  • The Astros are 24-9 in the past 33 matchups in Seattle.

Weather Report

The heatwave that gripped the Northwest has cooled off, and the teams will instead get 61-degree temperatures and winds blowing at five miles per hour toward first base. It’ll be a cloudy day, but rain isn’t in the forecast, so it’s likely the roof stays open.

Dan’s Pick to Win

Houston has been the better team all season, but the Mariners are the more desperate team and have shown a tendency to get their series started off the right way. The Astros didn’t play well at all on Sunday against Texas, and with Flexen pitching very well right now, I think they’ll have a tough time here.

The value is with the Mariners, so that’s where I’m going. Note: Fall is here! Please check out my college football game previews and picks as I cover the gridiron as well! Also consider dumping your overpriced bookie and making the switch to -105 reduced odds! It’ll save you THOUSANDS of dollars that you could be spending on other stuff like more bets and frosties! Find this awesome offer at BetAnySports! (10+ years with us, ZERO complaints!)