Runline Bet: Astros vs. Nationals 5/15/22

by | May 15, 2022 | mlb

Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals

Date: Sunday, May 15th, 01:35 ET

Location: Nationals Park

TV: ATT SportsNet-SW

Money Line: Astros -200 / Nationals +165 (Bovada - Their live betting platform is off the rails!)

Total Line: 8.0

STARTING PITCHING

Houston: Justin Verlander (4-1, 1.55)
Washington: Patrick Corbin (0-5, 6.06)

Astros Projected Lineup

Chas McCormick CF
Jeremy Peña SS
Yuli Gurriel 1B
Kyle Tucker RF
Alex Bregman 3B
Martín Maldonado C
Yordan Alvarez LF
Jose Altuve 2B
Michael Brantley LF
Justin Verlander P

Nationals Projected Lineup

Maikel Franco 3B
Victor Robles CF
Yadiel Hernandez LF
Keibert Ruiz C
Juan Soto RF
Alcides Escobar SS
Josh Bell 1B
Nelson Cruz CF
César Hernández 2B
Patrick Corbin P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Houston Astros: 22-12-0 SU / OU 10-24-0 / Run Line W/L 18-16-0
Washington Nationals: 12-23-0 SU / OU 15-17-3 / Run Line W/L 14-21-0

The Washington Nationals host the Houston Astros on Sunday, May 15th at Nationals Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 01:35 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Houston as the favorite (-200), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

The Astros are hoping to get back on track after falling to Washington, 13-6. Houston’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 14 hits, leading to 13 runs. Offensively, they finished with 6 runs on 12 hits. This defeat came despite being favored at -127.0. Through 27 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 70.0%. Together, the Astros and Washington combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 8.5 runs. Even with this game going over the total, Houston still has an over-under record of just 10-24-0.

The Astros are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 4-1 over their last 5 games. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at 16. Offensively, the team has put up 33 runs in their last 5 games. Houston’s season average comes in at 4.21 (13th. So far, Houston has won over half of their 11 series played, going 5-4-2.

The Washington Nationals will be looking to pick up another win, as they most recently defeated the Astros by 7 runs (13-6). Washington’s pitching staff gave up 12 hits, leading to 6 Astros runs. In the victory, the Nationals came up with 14 hits and 13 runs. This was a good win for the Nationals, as they were underdogs at 117.0. In their 29 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 34.0%. In terms of the over-under, the Nationals and Astros combined to surpass the line of 8.5 runs. Against the run total, Washington is just 15-17-3.

The Nationals come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. Despite this record, the team still has a positive run differential of 2 (last 5). In their 5 most recent contests, the team is scoring at a rate (of 5.0), similar to their season-long average of 4.29. Washington has a below .500 series record of just 2-7-2.

Pitching Matchup

Justin Verlander gets the start for the Astros, with an overall record of 4-1. Currently, Verlander has a strong ERA of just 1.55 while pitching an average of 6.7 innings per outing. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.15. Verlander is giving up home runs at a rate similar to the league average, allowing 0.9 per 9 innings. On the season, Justin Verlander has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 25.0% while averaging 6.0 K’s per game. Throughout the season, Verlander has avoided walking batters, allowing just 1.33 per contest.

Washington will roll with Patrick Corbin (0-5) as their starter. To date, Corbin has an ERA of 6.06 while lasting an average of 4.6 innings per appearance. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the left-hander, with a batting average of 0.292. So far, Corbin has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.28 home runs per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Patrick Corbin has a strong strikeout percentage of 20.0%, including a per game average of 4.42. Command has been a problem for Corbin, as he is giving up 4.68 walks per outing.

Houston vs Washington History

Today’s matchup between the Houston Astros and Washington Nationals will be their 2nd meeting of the season. Today’s game will be a rubber match for the two teams, as Houston and Washington each have 1 win. The over-under record in this series sits at 1-1. The average run total in these games is nan runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 6.0 runs.

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Betting Trends

  • Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington’s last 7 games at home
  • Washington is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games when playing Houston

Houston Astros at Washington Nationals Prediction

Even though the Nationals picked up a surprising win over the red-hot Astros, I recommend taking Houston to get back on track. With Justin Verlander on the mound, look for the Nationals to come nowhere near their 13 run outburst. Given that Patrick Corbin is on the mound for the Nats, I feel comfortable grabbing the Astros on the runline at -1.5.

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