Padres vs. Braves Odds & Moneyline Pick

by | Last updated May 15, 2022 | mlb

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves

Date: Sunday, May 15th, 11:35 ET

Location: Truist Park

TV: Peacock

Money Line: Padres -105 / Braves -115 (BAS – They let you bet on games at a discounted price!)

Total Line: 8.5


San Diego: Joe Musgrove (4-0, 2.08)
Atlanta: Kyle Wright (3-2, 3.03)

Padres Projected Lineup

Ha-seong Kim SS
Austin Nola C
Wil Myers RF
Luke Voit 1B
Manny Machado 3B
Trent Grisham CF
Eric Hosmer 1B
Jake Cronenworth 2B
Jurickson Profar LF
Joe Musgrove P

Braves Projected Lineup

Adam Duvall CF
Travis Demeritte RF
Ozzie Albies 2B
Travis d’Arnaud C
Ronald Acuña Jr. RF
Austin Riley 3B
Dansby Swanson SS
Marcell Ozuna LF
Matt Olson 1B
Kyle Wright P


San Diego Padres: 21-13-0 SU / OU 17-17-0 / Run Line W/L 18-16-0
Atlanta Braves: 16-18-0 SU / OU 19-13-2 / Run Line W/L 15-19-0

The Atlanta Braves host the San Diego Padres on Sunday, May 15th at Truist Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 11:35 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Atlanta as the favorite (-115), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

The Padres will look to rebound from a close, 6-5 loss to Atlanta. On their way to giving up 6 runs, the Padres staff allowed 9 hits. Offensively, they finished with 5 runs on 4 hits. The loss came as San Diego was the betting underdog, getting 125.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Padres and Atlanta combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 8.5 runs. After the game, San Diego’s over-under record moved by to .500 at 17-17-0.

In their last 5 games, the Padres are below .500, at 2-3. This mark has come on an average run margin of just -3. Compared to their overall average of 4.50 runs per game, the team’s offense is playing well. Over their last 5 contests, they have bumped this figure up to 5.2. So far, San Diego has won over half of their 11 series played, going 5-3-3.

The Braves will look to add another win, as in their last game, they defeated the Padres by a score of 6-5. Atlanta’s pitching staff gave up 4 hits, leading to 5 Padres runs. At the plate, the Braves scored 6 times on, 9 hits. Atlanta picked up the win while being favored at -135.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 29 games, winning at a rate of 48.0%. In terms of the over-under, the Braves and Padres combined to surpass the line of 8.5 runs. For the season, the team’s over-under record is (19-13-2).

Across their last 5 contests, the Braves are above .500, going 3-2. Atlanta has managed to play above .500 baseball, despite having an even scoring margin. Compared to their season average, the Braves come into this game swinging the bats well, averaging 6.0 runs per game. Atlanta has a below .500 series record of just 2-4-5.

Pitching Matchup

The San Diego Padres will send Joe Musgrove to the mound with an overall record of 4-0. Currently, Musgrove has a strong ERA of just 2.08 while pitching an average of 6.5 innings per outing. Across his previous appearances, the right-hander has a batting average allowed of 0.222. So far, Musgrove has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.69 home runs per 9 innings. On the season, Joe Musgrove has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 27.0% while averaging 6.83 K’s per game. Throughout the season, Musgrove has avoided walking batters, allowing just 0.69 per contest.

Atlanta will roll with Kyle Wright (3-2) as their starter. To date, Wright has an ERA of 3.03 while lasting an average of 5.87 innings per appearance. Wright comes into the game with a batting average allowed of 0.229. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Wright, as he is allowing just 0.51 per 9 innings. On the season, Kyle Wright has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 28.00% while averaging 6.83 K’s per game. Command has been a problem for Wright, as he is giving up 2.78 walks per outing.

San Diego vs Atlanta History

For the season, San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves will be playing their 6th game of the season. So far, the teams have each won 3 times. The over-under record in this series sits at 3-3. The average run total in these games is 8.0 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 4.0 runs. Dating back to last season, Atlanta picked up 4 wins compared to 2, taking the season series. In these 6 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 2-4. Last year, the Padres and Braves averaged 8.0 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 1.67 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Diego’s last 9 games on the road
San Diego is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Atlanta is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta’s last 9 games when playing at home against San Diego

San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves Prediction

Heading into today’s game, the Braves are the slight favorite at -115. However, I recommend going with San Diego on the moneyline. I’m counting on another strong outing from Jose Musgrove. On the season, Musgrove has an outstanding FIP of just 2.40. As the odds suggest, this should be a tightly contested game. But, look for Padres to pick up the road win.

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