Astros vs. Yankees Game 3 Recommended Bet

by | Last updated Oct 22, 2022 | mlb

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees
Date: Saturday October 22nd, 05:07 ET
Location: Yankee Stadium
Money Line: Astros +126 / Yankees -150
Total Line: 7.0


Houston: Cristian Javier (11-9, 2.54)
New York: Gerrit Cole (13-8, 3.5)

Astros Projected Lineup

Trey Mancini 1B
Chas McCormick CF
Kyle Tucker RF
Yuli Gurriel 1B
Alex Bregman 3B
Martín Maldonado C
Yordan Alvarez LF
Jose Altuve 2B
Jeremy Peña SS
Cristian Javier P

Yankees Projected Lineup

Harrison Bader CF
Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS
Josh Donaldson 3B
Aaron Judge RF
Oswaldo Cabrera LF
Jose Trevino C
Anthony Rizzo 1B
Giancarlo Stanton LF
Gleyber Torres 2B
Gerrit Cole P


Houston Astros: 106-56-0 SU / OU 61-97-9 / Run Line W/L 88-79-0
New York Yankees: 99-63-0 SU / OU 78-86-5 / Run Line W/L 76-93-0

The New York Yankees host the Houston Astros on Saturday, October 22nd at Yankee Stadium. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 05:07 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (-150), with an OU line set at 7.0.

Recent Form

In the Houston Astros’ last game, they picked up a 3-2 win over the NY Yankees. On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 2 runs on 4 hits. On offense, Houston’s lineup put together a total of 8 hits, leading to 3 runs. Heading into their last game, Houston was the betting favorite at -135.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 146 of their games, winning at a rate of 69.0%. Together, the Astros and NY Yankees stayed below the over-under line set at 7.0 runs. This outcome pushed Houston’s over-under record further below .500 at 61-97-9.

The Astros come into this game having won all 5 of their recent games. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +7. Houston has put together this record, despite averaging just 4.0 runs per game, compared to their season average of 4.53. So far, Houston has won over half of their 55 series played, going 36-13-6.

The Yankees will look to bounce back from a tight 3-2 loss to the Astros. Even in the loss, the pitching staff allowed just 3 runs on 8 hits. At the plate, the Yankees only came through for 2 runs on 4 hits. This loss came as no surprise, as New York came into the game as the underdog, getting 125.0. So far, the team has gone into 16 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 31.0%. Combined, the Yankees and Astros’ run total fell below the over-under line of 7.0 runs. Now, New York had an over-under record of 78-86-5.

In their last 5 contests, the Yankees have just 2 wins, going 2-3. Despite this record, the team still has a positive run differential of +2 (last 5). The team’s offense is partly to blame for their recent slump, as they have averaged just 3.6 runs over their last 5 game. On the season, New York has won more than half of their series, going 31-17-7.

Pitching Matchup

The Houston Astros will send Cristian Javier to the mound with an overall record of 11-9. Through 30 appearances, Javier has an ERA of just 2.54 while averaging 4.94 innings per appearance. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.17. Javier is giving up home runs at a rate similar to the league average, allowing 1.03 per 9 innings. On the season, Cristian Javier has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 33.0%. This includes a per-game average of 6.47 K’s per game. In his previous outings, walks have been an issue, as Javier is averaging 3.15 free passes per outing.

New York will roll with Gerrit Cole (13-8) as their starter. So far, Cole has put together an ERA of 3.5. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 6.07 innings. Cole will take the mound with a BA allowed of .207. Despite a strong batting average allowed, Cole is prone to giving up home runs, averaging 1.48 homers per 9 innings pitched. On the season, Gerrit Cole has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 32.0%. This has led to an average of 7.79 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.24 walks per outing.

Houston vs New York History

Today’s matchup between the Houston Astros and New York Yankees will be their 10th meeting of the season. So far, Houston is leading the season series, 7-2. The over-under record in this series sits at 2-6. The average run total in these games is 8.33 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 1.78 runs. Dating back to last season, the New York picked up 4 wins compared to 2, taking the season series. In these 6 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 3-3. Last year, the Astros and Yankees averaged 8.33 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.67 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 League Championship games.
  • Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 playoff games.
  • Yankees are 6-18 in their last 24 League Championship games.
  • Yankees are 2-7 in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Houston Astros at New York Yankees Prediction

The Yankees look to get their first ALCS win against the Houston Astros Saturday with Gerrit Cole on the hill against Cristian Javier. Cole shut down the ‘Stros in his only start against them this season and Javier has only allowed two earned runs over his last thirty innings. Runs are likely to be at a premium Saturday at Yankee Stadium! Get our Hou/NYY game 3 prediction here!

Free MLB Pick: Under 7 Runs

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