Atlanta Braves at New York Mets Pick 5/30/21

by | May 30, 2021 | mlb

Atlanta Braves (24-26) at New York Mets (25-20), 5/30/21

When: 7:08 pm ET Sunday, May 30

Where: Citi Field

TV: ESPN

MLB Betting odds: Atl +125/NYM -135 (Bovada - Credit cards work there for deposits and they have the BEST live wagering platform on the web! By far!)

Over/under: 5.5

Thanks to a rain-out, the Mets and Braves will (hopefully) conclude a two-game NL East series Sunday night at Citi Field. New York just scored 13 runs in blowing out Atlanta Saturday, but we wonder if they saved anything for Jake deGrom in this spot. Here’s how we homeworked this contest with our free MLB pick.

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday’s baseball betting market opened New York and deGrom at -125 over Atlanta and Max Fried, with an over/under of six runs. Early betting action then bumped the Mets about a dime, to -135, and some books even dipped that total to 5.5, which would be the lowest O/U we can ever remember seeing on an MLB game.

Braves-Mets MLB Betting Preview

This series was supposed to begin Friday night, but that game got rained out. New York then took Saturday’s game 13-2. The Mets, missing several key sticks, hit five home runs Saturday while getting
five shutout innings from starter Taijuan Walker, cashing in as +130 underdogs on the baseball betting line.

Prior to Saturday, New York had totaled 11 runs over its previous five games.

Earlier this week, the Braves split two games at Boston, and last weekend they took three of four from Pittsburgh. So Atlanta is 4-2 over its previous six games.

At 24-26 overall, though, Atlanta is playing well behind pace to reach its season wins over/under of 91.5.

Earlier this week, New York took two of three games from Colorado, while last weekend, it lost two of three at Miami. Going back a bit further, the Mets are 6-4 over their last ten games.

At 25-20 overall, New York is playing almost exactly on pace to reach its wins O/U of 90.5.

The Mets lead the season series with the Braves three games to one.

Sunday’s Pitching Match-Up

deGrom is 5/7 on quality starts this season. He’d be 7/7 if not for a short leash his last couple of times out. Tuesday, coming off a brief stint on the DL because of a sore side, he held Colorado to one run and three hits through five innings of a 3-1 New York victory. And prior to going on, the DL deGrom allowed just three runs and 19 hits over 40 innings, with seven walks and 65 strikeouts.

The Mets are 4-3 with deGrom this season, but they should be 7-0.

Over two starts last year against Atlanta, deGrom allowed two runs and six hits through 11 innings, with two walks and 18 whiffs. New York won both those games.

Fried is 3/7 on quality starts this year, but all three have come in his last three starts. Last Sunday, he limited Pittsburgh to one run and four hits through seven innings of a 7-1 Atlanta victory. And over his last four starts, he’s allowed just four runs and 15 hits through 24 innings.

The Braves are only 3-4 with Fried this season, but they could easily be a game or two better.

Over Fried’s last three starts against the Mets, two last year and one two weeks ago, he gave up four runs and ten hits through 16 innings. Atlanta won two of those three games.

Splits With the Sticks

Atlanta is batting .232 this season against right-handed pitching, with a .320 team OBP and a .429 team slugging percentage. The Braves are also now operating without Marcell Ozuna (7 HR, 26 RBI this season) for a variety of reasons.

New York is batting .222/.315/.354 against left-handed pitching this season. The Mets are also
operating without several key people, including Pete Alonso and Michael Conforto.

The Bullpens

The Atlanta bullpen owns a 4.75 ERA this season, along with a 1.49 WHIP and a 2.23 K/BB ratio.

The New York pen owns a 3.51 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 2.94 K/BB ratio. Numbers like those lead us to rank this unit among the top half-dozen or so bullpens in Baseball right now.

MLB Betting Trends

  • The Braves are 11-12 on the road this season.
  • The Mets are 15-5 at home this season.
  • The Braves are 19-20 against right-handed starters this season.
  • The Mets are 5-6 against left-handed starters this season.
  • The Mets are 3-4 with deGrom against the run line this season.

Totals Report

Overs are 27-21 in Braves games this season.

Unders are 23-18 in Mets games this season.

Unders are a combined 9-3 with deGrom and Fried this season.

Unders are 13-5 in games played at Citi Field this season.

Free MLB Pick

deGrom is awesome, but Fried ain’t bad either, so the edge in the pitching match-up is tempered. And while the Mets get the check-mark in the bullpen comparison Atlanta probably owns an advantage with the sticks, mainly because so many Mets are out. Sure, New York scored 13 runs Saturday, but how often do we see a team hit double-digits one night, then whiff the next? It’s not easy betting against deGrom, but that’s where the value lies in this match-up. We’ll bet the Braves here, at the underdog price. Bet your MLB picks FREE this week by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use promo bonus code PREDICT100 to receive the special increased bonus).