Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies Pick 9/2/21
When: 8:40 p.m., Thursday, September 2
Where: Coors Field, Denver
Moneyline: ATL -160/COL +145
Runline: Braves -1.5/Rockies +1.5
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Starting Pitchers: Touki Toussaint (3-2, 3.60 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (3-6, 6.08 ERA, 1.44 WHIP)
Rocky Mountain High
If the Rockies could ever play as well on the road as they do at Coors Field, they’d be downright dangerous. Opponents salivate when the Rockies come to town, because Colorado is an anemic 18-50 once they leave Denver. But if you’ve done the math, you know that means that they’re 43-22 in their home building, which would be good enough to have them in the playoff race if they were even close to decent on the road.
As of late, the Rockies have been even better in their home stadium, as they’ve gone 16-3 over their past 19 contests and haven’t lost a home series since falling to Milwaukee on June 20. It doesn’t always look pretty, as the Rockies have seen some ridiculous totals in their home games, but their terrible road record has made them an excellent way to make money this season. Despite being 11 games under .500 this year, simply betting on Colorado in every game would have a bettor up for the year, a claim that only one other team under .500 (Detroit) can make.
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One of the best examples of how things are not always pretty for the Rockies comes from starter Chi Chi Gonzalez, who has amassed an ERA over 6 for the second consecutive season in Denver. Over his past three starts, the run totals have been a mess, as he’s posted an ERA over 7 in his past three appearances.
But here’s the odd thing: the Rockies have managed to win all three of those starts. Gonzalez was long gone from the game by the time the Rockies took control, but Colorado has won four of his past five starts even as opponents have lit up Gonzalez and the bullpen for 34 runs during that stretch. For whatever reason, Colorado is comfortable trusting Gonzalez to get them to the destination, even if the journey has more twists and turns than a Stephen King novel.
Here’s one big reason why the Braves have pushed the total to 12.5 in this contest: they tend to give Touki Toussaint a lot of run support whenever he takes the mound. Toussaint really hasn’t needed the help, as he’s won two of his past five starts and hasn’t given up more than two earned runs in any of them. But for whatever reason, the Braves have turned it on whenever he’s taken the hill.
Over Toussaint’s past five games, Atlanta has won them all and averaged eight runs per game, with only a 3-1 win over Baltimore seeing the Braves fail to put at least eight on the board. Because of that, four of Toussaint’s past six starts have triggered the over, despite the fact that three of six have scored two runs or less for the game. Whether he can handle Denver remains a question mark, but he’s been a better road pitcher than a home pitcher, averaging a 2.25 ERA away from Truist Park.
- The Braves are 12-1 in their past 13 against a team below .500.
- The Braves are 22-6 in their past 28 games as a favorite.
- The Rockies have won four straight as a home underdog.
- The Rockies are 5-1 in their past six against a team above .500.
- The under is 6-0 on the Braves’ past six road games.
- The under is 8-1-2 in the Braves’ past 11 games overall.
- The under is 5-1 in the Rockies’ past six games overall.
- The under is 17-7 in the Rockies’ past 24 home games.
- The Braves are 5-2 in their past seven trips to Denver.
- The under is 4-1 in the past five meetings in Denver.
It’s going to be a cloudy day in Denver, with temperatures pushing 81 degrees and a slight breeze blowing out to left-center at five miles per hour.
The Rockies have been outstanding at home, and Atlanta is reeling right now. The Braves are losers in three straight games and can feel the Phillies coming up hard behind them. Colorado is getting the job done at home in a big way right now, and the Braves aren’t really coming here in the greatest mindset after getting swept in their most recent series.
Atlanta needs this game more, but the value lies with Colorado. I’m taking the Rockies. Question: Have you considered betting on games AFTER they’ve started? Many sites have live betting platforms, but the best (bar none) is at Bovada Sportsbook They also offer a 50% bonus up to $250 (football betting loot!) and rebates on ALL your bets; win, lose or draw! Lastly, they payout via bitcoin within an hour! Online for over 20 years, this book is a must have in your sports betting arsenal! Check them out!
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