Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 8/31/21
When: 10:10 p.m., Tuesday, August 31
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Moneyline: ATL +155/LAD -175 (GTBets - 100% Bonus up to $500!)
Runline: Braves +1.5/Dodgers -1.5
Starting Pitchers: Charlie Morton (12-5, 3.60 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) vs. Walker Buehler (13-2, 2.02 ERA, 0.92 WHIP)
This week is critical for the Dodgers, and thanks to the way they set up their rotation, this series might actually be the more critical of the two. Los Angeles decided to prioritize health over pitching matchups for this weekend, which means they won’t have all three of their best pitchers available for San Francisco during the weekend. As such, they’re banking on a sweep of the Braves and getting some help from the Brewers to get them into first in the NL West.
Atlanta has a different concern: the Braves simply need as many wins as possible to help them slide into the playoffs. Unlike the Dodgers, the Braves know that no wild card is coming if they get caught, unless the Reds come unglued. Atlanta is a half-game ahead of Cincinnati in the standings now, but if the Phillies catch them, they’d likely have fallen behind in that race. The Phillies play one of the softest schedules down the stretch, though, so every game the Braves play is critical. With Philadelphia only playing three games against a team above .500 outside of their one remaining series with the Braves, Atlanta has to treat every game as if it has the potential for them to fall behind if they don’t get the job done.
Here’s one big reason why the Dodgers felt comfortable setting up their rotation the way they did: They knew that they would get two games out of Walker Buehler in this week. Buehler has been the rough equivalent of Carey Price with the Montreal Canadiens in the Stanley Cup playoffs this past season, except the rest of the Dodgers are pretty darn good as well.
Buehler, however, continues to take the pressure off Los Angeles hitters. As long as the Dodgers give him something resembling offense, he’ll pretty much do the rest of the job. The Dodgers’ hitters gave him nothing in his most recent loss, a 3-0 home setback to Houston, but in his past ten performances, he’s held hitters to two runs or less nine times, with the lone exception coming in a 5-4 loss to Miami. Going into this matchup, the Dodgers are likely thinking of three runs as a target because if they can give their ace that small total, the game is probably over as long as the bullpen doesn’t do anything stupid.
If It’s Anywhere, You’ll Find It On the Road
Whenever Charlie Morton pitches, it’s usually a great pitching matchup that keeps fans and bettors on the edge of their seats. But there’s been a very weird cheat code for gamblers when it comes to betting on Morton’s starts: just bet the visitor.
For whatever reason, the visiting team is 9-0 in Morton’s past nine starts, and the Braves haven’t lost on the road with him on the mound since June 11 in Miami. Morton’s ERA is a full run lower on the road than at Truist Park, but that doesn’t even tell the whole story of such a disparity. Regardless of where he pitches, Morton hasn’t given up more than four runs in a game since early June; the bullpen has simply gotten blown up more often in Atlanta than it has on the road.
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- The Braves are 19-7 in their past 26 games overall.
- The Braves are 20-6 in their past 26 road games.
- The Dodgers are 40-15 in their past 55 Tuesday games.
- The Dodgers are 39-18 in their past 57 overall.
- The under is 6-1-2 in the Braves’ past nine overall.
- The under is 5-1-1 in the Braves’ past seven against the NL West.
- The under is 11-1 in the Dodgers’ past 12 Tuesday games.
- The under is 19-4-3 in the Dodgers’ past 26 games after a win.
- The Dodgers are 22-6 in their past 28 against the Braves in Los Angeles.
- The under is 4-1 in the past five meetings in Los Angeles.
It’s going to be another great evening for baseball in Southern California, with temperatures hitting 68 degrees and wind blowing at six miles per hour toward right-center.
The Dodgers are sending their biggest gun to the mound, and if there’s one thing I’ve learned about baseball betting in 2021, it’s that I’m not going to fade Walker Buehler without a darn good reason. I can’t see one in this situation, even with Morton’s pattern on the road, so I’m taking the Dodgers and pairing it with the Under. Question: Are you a small bettor looking to get the most bang for your buck? Most are! Check this awesome 200% bonus out! Deposit only $25 and get an extra $50 FREE! Simply register for a betting account at Intertops through this special link, deposit $25 and then go directly to their special offers page and enter bonus code ROOKIE200 and the extra $50 will be added to your balance!
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