Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Pick 6/30/19

Atlanta Braves (50-34) vs. New York Mets (37-47), 6/30/19
Time: 7:05 pm ET Sunday, June 30
Where: Citi Field, Queens, NY
Listed Pitchers: Max Fried (9-3, 3.96 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) vs. Noah Syndergaard (5-4, 4.55, 1.21)
TV: ESPN

Moneyline: Mets -110/Braves +100 (Bookmaker)
Over/Under: 8.5

After taking the first two games of this three-game NL East series, the Braves shoot for the sweep of the Mets Sunday night at Citi Field. Atlanta is pulling away in the divisional race, while New York is fading fast, thanks in part to a seven-game losing skid. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday’s MLB betting odds opened New York and Syndergaard at around -125 over Atlanta and Fried, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then dropped that spread about 15 cents, to around -110, and dipped that total to 8.5.

Braves vs. Mets Set-Up

Atlanta took the opener of this series Friday night 6-2, then scored two runs in the top of the eighth to win Saturday’s game 5-4. The Braves beat Jake deGrom as +135 underdogs Friday, then won as -110 favorites Saturday.

With Saturday’s win, Atlanta is 6-2 over its last eight games.

With Saturday’s loss, New York now owns a seven-game losing streak.

At 50-34 overall Atlanta leads the NL East by 6.5 games over second-place Philadelphia. The Braves also trail the Dodgers by 5.5 games in the battle for the best record in the National League.

At 37-47 overall New York trails the Braves by 13 games in the NL East, and it’s 7.5 games behind Milwaukee and Colorado in the National League wild-card race.

Atlanta leads the season series with the Mets six games to three.

Sunday’s Starting Arms

Syndergaard is making his first start Sunday since doing a short stint on the DL with a sore hamstring. On the season, by our strict standards, he’s only 6/15 on quality starts, but two for his last three. Most recently, 15 days ago, Syndergaard gave up five runs – four earned – through six innings of an 8-7 New York victory over St. Louis. And over his last three starts, he’s allowed seven ER and 12 hits through 19 2/3 innings.

New York is 8-7 with Syndergaard this season, 2-0 over his last two starts.

In three starts last year against the Braves Syndergaard allowed six runs and 20 hits through 18 innings. The Mets only won one of those three games.

Lefty Fried is 9/16 on quality starts this year and two in his last two. Tuesday he held the Cubs to two runs and two hits through six innings of a 3-2 Atlanta victory. In the previous start, he held this New York outfit to two runs and eight hits through six innings.

The Braves are 12-4 with Fried this season, 5-0 over his last five starts.

Over his last two starts against New York, one last year and one two weeks ago, Fried allowed three ER and 12 hits through 11 innings. The Braves won both those games.

Sunday’s Batting Splits

Atlanta is batting .263/.339/.460 against right-handed pitching this season. This lineup has also scored at least five runs each of its last four games.

New York is batting .274/.345/.473 against left-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Braves bullpen owns a 3.65 ERA this season and a 1.36 WHIP while allowing a .729 OPS.

The Mets pen owns an ugly 5.58 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP while allowing an .836 OPS.

Totals Report

• Overs are 45-35 in Braves games this season.
• Overs are 43-31 in Mets games this season.
• Overs are 17-15 in games played at Citi Field this season.
• Overs are 4-3-2 in Braves-Mets games this season.
• Overs are a combined 20-9 in games started by Syndergaard and Fried this season.

Free MLB Pick
Syndergaard owns the bigger name than Fried, but we’re calling this pitching match-up a wash. And while New York might own a slight edge in the splits with the sticks, Atlanta holds a significant advantage in the bullpen comparison. We’re betting the Braves to complete the sweep for our free MLB pick for Sunday.