Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Pick

by | Sep 19, 2020 | mlb

Atlanta Braves (30-21) vs. New York Mets (23-28)

When: 7:07 p.m., Saturday, September 19

Where: Citi Field, New York

Starting Pitchers: Ian Anderson (3-0, 1.64 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) vs. David Peterson (4-2, 4.17 ERA, 1.31 WHIP)

Moneyline: ATL -135/NYM +125 (Intertops - Safe! Been around since the 1990’s!)

Runline: Braves -1.5/Mets +1.5

Total: 9

Nearing the Clinch

Despite a rotation held together by bubble gum, duct tape, and Max Fried, Atlanta is in excellent shape as far as making the playoffs goes. The Braves own a winning record away from Truist Park, and a 3.5 game lead over Miami, meaning Atlanta could seal its spot in the postseason very soon. On the other hand, the Mets risk turning into a team that just wants to get the year over with. With only nine games to go, the best New York can do is get a lower seed in the first round, and even if the Mets qualify for the playoffs, they really don’t have the ability to do more than win a short three-game series with their substandard bullpen. Will New York push toward a strong finish and play for pride, or will it stagger across the finish line?

Lighting Up the Board

A good chunk of this is because of the Mets’ terrible bullpen performances, but when Peterson goes to the hill, runs usually tend to occur. In his past seven starts, the over has hit on six occasions, missing by half a run in the one exception. Peterson hasn’t even been the problem in those performances, as the Mets really seem to love when he pitches at Citi Field. In four starts by Peterson in Queens, the Mets have scored eight runs on three occasions, and the over cashed in all three times.

The days of New York carrying balsa bats are long gone, and the Mets’ lineup has emerged as a group that can win games and carry a pitcher to success. That’s true even for a contact pitcher like Peterson, who might need a large amount of run support to win this game. The Braves are a strikeout-heavy squad, but when their bats connect, the ball usually doesn’t go where you want it to go. Atlanta hits a respectable .271, but the Braves also have one more hit (479) than they do strikeouts as a team. Take the strikeouts out of the equation, and Atlanta jumps to a .372 average when the Braves put the ball in play. A contact pitcher like Peterson could be in major peril here.

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Strikeout Artist

Ian Anderson hasn’t pitched often for Atlanta this year, making his first start for the Braves on Aug. 26. But when he has pitched, he’s been pretty effective at missing bats, and it’s shown up in his numbers. When Anderson strikes out at least six batters, he’s earned the win. Plus, in those three performances, his strikeouts were at least three times his walk numbers.

However, in the one defeat, he walked as many hitters as he struck out and ended up with just four strikeouts in the contest. Granted, he was still missing bats, as he only recorded nine outs in the entire game, with four of them being strikeouts. The point here is that it might be a wise prop bet to take Anderson to hit his strikeout totals if you’re leaning toward the Braves to win, as Atlanta probably isn’t winning this game if Anderson isn’t missing bats. You can use that to your advantage in live betting as well. If Anderson’s first few opposing hitters aren’t touching the ball, you might want to go for the Braves. If he’s pitching to contact, lean toward the Mets.

Betting Trends

  • The Braves are 5-1 in their past six NL East games.
  • The Braves are 2-5 in their past seven games after a win.
  • The Mets are 2-5 in their past seven Saturday games.
  • The Mets are 7-3 in their last ten home games against a right-hander.
  • The over is 5-1 in the Braves’ past six against the NL East.
  • The over is 7-3-1 in the Braves’ last 11 games as a road favorite.
  • The over is 5-0 in the Mets’ past five home games.
  • The over is 6-1 in the Mets’ past seven against a right-hander.
  • The Braves have won six of seven from the Mets.

Weather Report

A mild breeze comes from the left-center at nine miles per hour, with temperatures at 64 degrees at the first pitch.

Dan’s Pick

The pitching really favors Atlanta here. The Mets are a solid hitting team, but Anderson is pitching very well. Meanwhile, the Mets send out a contact pitcher in Peterson against an Atlanta lineup that absolutely destroys the ball when it connects. You’ve got to miss bats to beat the Braves, and Peterson does not do that on a regular basis.

That’s enough for me. I want the Braves.

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