Baltimore Orioles (11-8) +150, o/u 8 at Seattle Mariners (10-10), 10 pm Eastern Tuesday
by Zman of Predictem.com
The Seattle Mariners seek a bit of revenge when they welcome the Baltimore Orioles to town for a three-game series beginning Tuesday night.
Sportsbooks list Seattle and Felix Hernandez as right around -165 home favorites for Tuesday’s game, with an over/under of 8. Baltimore and Jeremy Guthrie are getting +150 as road underdogs.
The Orioles just took two of three games at home from the Yankees over the weekend, and have won three of their last four. So going into this week’s play, the O’s are in second place in the AL East, two games back of the first-place Boston Red Sox.
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Meanwhile, Seattle salvaged one game of a three-game weekend series in LA by beating the Angels Sunday 4-2. So heading into Tuesday’s game, the Mariners are in third place in the AL West, two games back of both the Oakland A’s and the Angels.
A couple of weeks ago, the Orioles swept four games from Seattle in Baltimore, outscoring the M’s 21-14. But last year, Seattle took the season series from the O’s seven games to two. And the o/u went 7-1-1 in those nine games, which averaged a very healthy 12.0 total runs per.
Baltimore is 2-4 on the road this season, 10-9 vs. the run line and 8-7 as underdogs. On the other side of the ledger, the Mariners are 5-3 at home this year, 11-9 vs. the run line but only 5-4 when favored.
Guthrie (0-1, 4.38, 1.38 WHIP this season) allowed three ER on seven baserunners (hits + walks) in six innings in his most recent outing, a 6-5 win over the White Sox last Thursday. Over his last three starts, Guthrie has given up seven ER and 24 BR over 19 1/3 IP. The Orioles are 2-2 in Guthrie’s starts this year, the o/u also 2-2.
Guthrie went up against Hernandez (2-0, 1.47, 1.17) in that series in Baltimore two weeks ago, allowing two ER and eight BR in seven IP. Hernandez was even better, allowing no ER and seven BR over eight innings of work. But the Orioles won that game 3-2 with three runs in the bottom of the ninth.
Guthrie also started twice last season vs. Seattle; so over his last three starts against the Mariners, Guthrie has given up nine ER and 25 BR over 17 IP. Baltimore won two of those games, and two of them went over their totals.
In his most recent outing, Hernandez went the distance, holding Oakland to one ER and nine BR in a 4-2 Seattle win last Wednesday. The Mariners are 2-2 in Hernandez’ starts this year, the o/u also 2-2.
Over his last three starts, Hernandez has given up five ER and 28 BR in 23 2/3 innings of work. And combining his one start this year vs. the O’s with three starts last year against Baltimore, Hernandez has allowed 11 ER and 40 BR over 26 1/3 IP. Seattle only managed to win two of those four starts, and three of them went over their totals.
Offensively speaking, the Orioles rank 16th in the majors in team OBP at .329 and 13th in team slugging at .405, and are averaging 4.4 runs per game. Meanwhile, the Mariners rank 22nd in OBP at .321 and 17th in slugging at .398, and are averaging 4.7 RPG.
The Baltimore bullpen has allowed five ER and 13 BR over its last five games, covering 16 IP. On the other side, the Seattle pen has given up four ER and 15 BR over its last five games, covering 11 1/3 IP.
The o/u is 6-13 in Orioles games this year, which are averaging 8.6 total runs, while the totals are 8-10 in Mariners games, which are averaging 9.0 total runs. And games played at Safeco Field last year averaged 9.6 total runs.
Zman’s Pick: I love Felix in this spot but laying -170 isn’t in the cards for me. Under is the most probably play in this game as the Orioles are not likely to put up more than 2 runs tonight. Good luck!