Barking Dog: Mariners vs. Astros

by | Oct 13, 2022 | mlb

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros

Date: Thursday, October 13th, 03:37 ET

Location: Minute Maid Park

TV: TBS

Money Line: Mariners +122 / Astros -145 (Bet it for FREE with a 100% bonus from one of the top tier bookies on our sportsbook bonuses page!)

Total Line: 7.0

STARTING PITCHING

Seattle: Luis Castillo (4-4, 2.86)
Houston: Framber Valdez (17-6, 2.77)

Mariners Projected Lineup

J.P. Crawford SS
Curt Casali C
Carlos Santana RF
Mitch Haniger RF
Dylan Moore RF
Eugenio Suárez 3B
Abraham Toro 2B
Julio Rodriguez CF
Ty France 1B
Luis Castillo P

Astros Projected Lineup

Trey Mancini 1B
Chas McCormick CF
Kyle Tucker RF
Yuli Gurriel 1B
Alex Bregman 3B
Martín Maldonado C
Yordan Alvarez LF
Jose Altuve 2B
Jeremy Peña SS
Framber Valdez P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Seattle Mariners: 90-72-0 SU / OU 77-80-8 / Run Line W/L 86-79-0
Houston Astros: 106-56-0 SU / OU 61-93-9 / Run Line W/L 86-77-0

The Houston Astros host the Seattle Mariners on Thursday, October 13th at Minute Maid Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 03:37 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Houston as the favorite (-145), with an OU line set at 7.0.

Recent Form

In their last game, the Mariners suffered a 1 run loss to Houston by a score of 8-7. Seattle’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 11 hits, leading to 8 runs. The Mariners ended the game with 13 hits of their own, leading to 7 runs. The loss came as Seattle was the betting underdog, getting 200.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Mariners and Houston combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 6.5 runs. The Mariners now have an over-under record of 77-80-8.

The Mariners come into this game with a 4-1 record over their last 5 contests. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +8. A key to their recent success has been an offense averaging 7.0 runs per game, compared to their season average of 4.31. So far, Seattle has won over half of their 53 series played, going 28-21-4.

The Astros will look to add another win, as in their last game, they defeated the Mariners by a score of 8-7. Houston’s pitching staff gave up 13 hits, leading to 7 Mariners runs. At the plate, the Astros scored 8 times on 11 hits. In the game, Houston was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -250.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 142 games, winning at a rate of 68.0%. In terms of the over-under, the Astros and Mariners combined to surpass the line of 6.5 runs. So far, Houston has an over-under record of just 61-93-9.

Across their last 5 contests, the Astros are above .500, going 4-1. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +11. Houston has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 4.8 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.57. On the season, Houston has won more than half of their series, going 35-13-6.

Pitching Matchup

The Seattle Mariners will send Luis Castillo to the mound with an overall record of 4-4. Currently, Castillo has an ERA of just 2.86 while pitching an average of 6.07 innings per outing. So far, batters are hitting just .201 against him. Not only does Castillo have a strong batting average allowed, but he has also avoided giving up home runs. In his previous outings, opponents are averaging just 0.74 HR/9. In terms of strikeouts, Luis Castillo has a strong strikeout percentage of 26.0%, including a per-game average of 6.43. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.96 walks per outing.

Houston will roll with Framber Valdez (17-6) as their starter. Currently, Valdez has a strong ERA of just 2.77 while pitching an average of 6.49 innings per outing. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just .220. Home runs have not been an issue for Valdez, as he is giving up just 0.49 per 9. In terms of strikeouts, Framber Valdez has a strong K% of 23.0%, including a per-game average of 6.26. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 3.0 walks per outing.

Seattle vs Houston History

Today’s matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros will be their 21st meeting of the season. Currently, Houston is winning the season series 13-7. The over-under record in this series sits at 9-11. The average run total in these games is 9.37 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 3.75 runs.

Betting Trends

  • Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle’s last 6 games
  • Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Seattle
  • Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros Prediction

It’s a tall task to hit off Luis Castillo when you’ve never faced him before, and that’ll be the case Thursday afternoon in Houston as he only has 6 career innings vs. Houston and hasn’t faced them since 2019. Framber Valdez pitched well this season, however, he was worse at home and the Mariners have had success against him. I’m bucking the odds and betting the +140 underdog Seattle Mariners to come roaring back and win Game 2!

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