Best Bet Alert: Guardians vs. Mariners 8/27/22

by | Aug 27, 2022 | mlb

Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners

Date: Saturday August 27th, 10:10 ET

Location: T-Mobile Park

TV: ROOTNW

Money Line: Guardians +141 / Mariners -170

Total Line: 7.0

STARTING PITCHING

Cleveland: Zach Plesac (2-11, 4.35)
Seattle: Luis Castillo (4-4, 2.86)

Guardians Projected Lineup

Owen Miller 1B
Austin Hedges C
Andrés Giménez 2B
Oscar Gonzalez RF
José Ramírez 3B
Myles Straw CF
Josh Naylor 1B
Steven Kwan LF
Amed Rosario SS
Zach Plesac P

Mariners Projected Lineup

Cal Raleigh C
J.P. Crawford SS
Ty France 1B
Sam Haggerty LF
Adam Frazier 2B
Eugenio Suárez 3B
Mitch Haniger RF
Julio Rodriguez CF
Jesse Winker LF
Luis Castillo P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Cleveland Guardians: 66-58-0 SU / OU 56-60-7 / Run Line W/L 66-57-0
Seattle Mariners: 69-57-0 SU / OU 60-59-6 / Run Line W/L 64-61-0

The Seattle Mariners host the Cleveland Guardians on Saturday August 27th at T-Mobile Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 10:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Seattle as the favorite (-170), with an OU line set at 7.0.

Recent Form

In Cleveland’s last game, they fell to Seattle by a score of 3-2. In the losing effort, the pitching staff still held the Mariners to just 3 runs on 8 hits. With their 9 hits, the Guardians could only muster 2 runs. This defeat came despite being favored at -120.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 64 of their games, winning at a rate of 59.0%. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 7.0 runs. So far, Cleveland has been a good candidate to fall below the betting line, as their over-under record sits at just 56-60-7.

After their 5 most recent games, the Guardians have gone just 2-3. Even with this record, their scoring differential during this time is +4. A key reason for Cleveland’s recent struggles is an offense averaging just 2.6 runs per game over their last 5 contests, compared to a season average of 4.33. So far, Cleveland has won over half of their 40 series played, going 18-12-10.

In their last game, Seattle took down the Guardians by a score of 3-2. In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 2 runs on 9 hits. The Mariners’ offense ended the game with just 3 runs on 8 hits. Despite being the underdogs, getting 110.0 on the moneyline, the Mariners still picked up the win. In their 62 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 45.0%. With this result, the Mariners and Guardians combined to fall below the over-under line of 7.0 runs. Seattle still has an above .500 over-under record at (60-59-6).

Across their last 5 contests, the Mariners are above .500, going 3-2. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of +1 (last 5). Seattle has played above .500 baseball, despite averaging just 2.8 runs in their last 5 games. This is a drop in production compared to their season average of 4.13. On the season, Seattle has won more than half of their series, going 21-16-3.

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Pitching Matchup

Zach Plesac gets the start for the Guardians, with an overall record of 2-11. So far, Plesac has put together an ERA of 4.35. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.45 innings. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.261. Home runs have been an issue for Plesac, as he is allowing an average of 1.2 per 9 innings pitched. In terms of strikeouts, Zach Plesac has a strong strikeout percentage of 18.0%, including a per-game average of 4.23. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.78 walks per outing.

Luis Castillo gets the start for the Mariners, with an overall record of 4-4. In his previous outings, Castillo has lasted an average of 6.07 innings, putting together an ERA of just 2.86. So far, batters are hitting just 0.201 against him. Home runs have not been an issue for Castillo, as he is giving up just 0.74 per 9. Per game, Luis Castillo is averaging 6.43, on a strikeout percentage of 26.0%. Castillo comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 2.96 free passes per outing.

Cleveland vs Seattle History

For the season, the Cleveland Guardians and Seattle Mariners will be playing their 2nd game of the season. Seattle holds the edge in the series at 1-0. Through 1 game, the series’ over-under record is 0-1, with the average run total sitting at 7.86 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.0 runs. Seattle won last year’s head to head series, grabbing 4 wins to 3. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 4-3. Last year, the Guardians and Mariners averaged 7.86 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.29 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland’s last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland’s last 8 games on the road
  • Seattle is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
  • Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland

Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners Prediction

Leading into Saturday night’s matchup between Cleveland and Seattle, the Mariners are the strong favorite on the moneyline. Since Seattle acquired Luis Castillo, they have gone 3-2 in his starts. On the other side, Zach Plesac has struggled of late, including giving up 4 earned runs in just 5 1/3 innings to the light-hitting Tigers. I recommend taking the Mariners on the moneyline.

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