Bet the Runline: Mets vs. Nationals

by | Last updated Aug 1, 2022 | mlb

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals
Date: Monday August 1st, 07:05 ET
Location: Nationals Park
Money Line: Mets -230 / Nationals +190
Total Line: 7.5 (Bovada)


New York: Max Scherzer (6-2, 2.09)
Washington: Patrick Corbin (4-14, 6.49)

Mets Projected Lineup

Jeff McNeil 2B
Eduardo Escobar 3B
Daniel Vogelbach 1B
Starling Marte RF
Mark Canha LF
Tomás Nido C
Francisco Lindor SS
Pete Alonso 1B
Brandon Nimmo CF
Max Scherzer P

Nationals Projected Lineup

César Hernández 2B
Maikel Franco 3B
Yadiel Hernandez LF
Juan Soto RF
Keibert Ruiz C
Lane Thomas CF
Nelson Cruz CF
Luis Garcia SS
Josh Bell 1B
Patrick Corbin P


New York Mets: 64-37-0 SU / OU 50-43-8 / Run Line W/L 54-47-0
Washington Nationals: 35-68-0 SU / OU 49-49-5 / Run Line W/L 43-60-0

The Washington Nationals host the New York Mets on Monday, August 1st at Nationals Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (-230), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

The New York Mets are coming off a 6-run win over the Marlins by a score of 9-3. Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited the Marlins to 3 runs on 10 hits. The Mets lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 19 hits, leading to 9 runs. Heading into their last game, New York was the betting favorite at -135.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 77 of their games, winning at a rate of 69.0%. Together, the Mets and Marlins combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 7.0 runs. So far, New York has an above .500 over-under record of 50-43-8.

The Mets will look to continue their strong play, as they are 5-0 over their last five contests. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +16. Their hot play has been driven by an offense that typically averages 4.70 runs per game. But, over this stretch, this figure has bumped up to 5.6. So far, New York has won over half of their 32 series played, going 23-6-3.

Washington will be looking to move on from a tough loss to the Cardinals by the score of 5-0. On their way to giving up 5 runs, the Nationals staff allowed 7 hits. With their 5 hits, the Nationals could only plate 0 runners. This loss came as no surprise, as Washington came into the game as the underdog, getting 100.0. In their 85 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 33.0%. With this result, the Nationals and Cardinals combined to fall below the over-under line of 9.0 runs. With this outcome, the team’s over-under record drops back to even at 49-49-5.

The Nationals come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -9. Even with their recent struggles, the offense has been steady, averaging 3.6 runs per game. This is right in line with their season average of 3.82. Washington has a below .500 series record of just 8-22-2.

Pitching Matchup

The New York Mets will send Max Scherzer to the mound with an overall record of 6-2. Currently, Scherzer has an ERA of just 2.09 while pitching an average of 6.31 innings per outing. So far, batters are hitting just 0.201 against him. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.77 home runs allowed per 9 innings. Per game, Max Scherzer is averaging 8.0, on a strikeout percentage of 33.0%. Throughout the season, Scherzer has avoided walking batters, allowing just 1.65 per contest.

In today’s game, Washington turns to starter Patrick Corbin. For the year, he has a record of 4-14. To date, Corbin has an ERA of 6.49 while lasting an average of 5.0 innings per appearance. Compared to other starters, the right-hander has a high BA allowed of 0.324. Home runs have been an issue for Corbin, as he is allowing an average of 1.54 per 9 innings pitched. Per game, Patrick Corbin is averaging 4.67, on a strikeout percentage of 20.0%. Corbin comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 3.16 free passes per outing.

New York vs Washington History

Today’s matchup between the New York Mets and Washington Nationals will be their 11th meeting of the season. So far, New York is leading the season series, 8-2. The over-under record in this series sits at 4-6. The average run total in these games is 8.74 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 4.8 runs. Last season, New York picked up the series win, 11 games to 8. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 7-9, with the average run total being 8.74 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.16 runs per game.

More Picks: Get our Mariners vs. Yankees Best Bet for 8/1/22

Betting Trends

  • NY Mets is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • NY Mets is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington’s last 5 games when playing at home against NY Mets
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington’s last 7 games

New York Mets at Washington Nationals Prediction

Heading into Monday’s National League East matchup between New York and Washington, the Mets should coast to an easy victory as it is hard to think of a more lopsided pitching matchup. Max Scherzer continues to be dominant as he is coming off a scoreless 7-inning performance vs the Yankees. On the other hand, Patrick Corbin has given up 21 runs in his last 3 outings. I like New York to cover the runline.

Free MLB Pick: Mets -1.5 Runline

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