Bet the Total: Astros vs. Yankees Game 4

by | Oct 23, 2022 | mlb

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees
Date: Sunday October 23rd, 07:07 ET
Location: Yankee Stadium
Money Line: Astros +113 / Yankees -135
Total Line: 6.5


Houston: Lance McCullers Jr. (4-2, 2.27)
New York: Nestor Cortes (12-4, 2.44)

Astros Projected Lineup

Trey Mancini 1B
Chas McCormick CF
Kyle Tucker RF
Yuli Gurriel 1B
Alex Bregman 3B
Martín Maldonado C
Yordan Alvarez LF
Jose Altuve 2B
Jeremy Peña SS
Lance McCullers Jr. P

Yankees Projected Lineup

Harrison Bader CF
Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS
Josh Donaldson 3B
Aaron Judge RF
Oswaldo Cabrera LF
Jose Trevino C
Anthony Rizzo 1B
Giancarlo Stanton LF
Gleyber Torres 2B
Nestor Cortes P


Houston Astros: 106-56-0 SU / OU 61-98-9 / Run Line W/L 89-79-0
New York Yankees: 99-63-0 SU / OU 78-87-5 / Run Line W/L 76-94-0

The New York Yankees host the Houston Astros on Sunday, October 23rd at Yankee Stadium. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:07 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (-135), with an OU line set at 6.5.

Recent Form

The Houston Astros will look to pick up another big win after they defeated the NY Yankees by a score of 5-0. Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited the NY Yankees to 0 runs on 3 hits. The Astros benefited from an offense that generated 5 runs on 6 hits. This victory came despite being the betting underdog, getting 126.0 on the moneyline. Combined, the Astros and NY Yankees fell short of the over-under betting line of 6.5 runs. With this result, Houston’s over-under record dropped even further, moving to just 61-98-9.

The Astros come into this game having won all 5 of their recent games. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +11. Houston has put together this record, despite averaging just 3.4 runs per game, compared to their season average of 4.54. So far, Houston has won over half of their 55 series played, going 36-13-6.

New York will be looking to move on from a tough loss to the Astros by the score of 5-0. New York’s pitching staff gave up 6 hits, leading to 5 runs for the Astros. With their 3 hits, the Yankees could only plate 0 runners. New York came away with a loss, despite being favored on the moneyline (-150.0). So far, the team has won 63.0% of the games in which they were favored. With this result, the Yankees and Astros combined to fall below the over-under line of 6.5 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 78-87-5.

The Yankees come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -2 over their last 5 games. The team’s offense is partly to blame for their recent slump, as they have averaged just 2.6 runs over their last 5 game. On the season, New York has won more than half of their series, going 31-17-7.

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Pitching Matchup

Houston will roll with Lance McCullers Jr. (4-2) as their starter. Currently, Jr. has an ERA of just 2.27 while pitching an average of 5.9 innings per outing. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just .214. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.76 home runs allowed per 9 innings. Overall, he is averaging 6.25 per game, on a K rate of 26.0%. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 4.15 walks per outing.

New York will roll with Nestor Cortes (12-4) as their starter. In his previous outings, Cortes has lasted an average of 5.65 innings, putting together an ERA of just 2.44. Overall, opponents have a batting average of just .189 against the right-hander. Cortes is giving up home runs a rate similar to the league average, allowing 0.91 per 9 innings. Per game, Nestor Cortes is averaging 5.82, on a strikeout percentage of 27.0%. For the season, he is averaging 2.16 walks per outing.

Houston vs New York History

For the season, the Houston Astros and New York Yankees will be playing their 11th game of the season. Houston has the lead in the series at 8-2. Through 10 games, the series over-under record is 2-7, with the average run total sitting at 8.33 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.1 runs.

Betting Trends

  • Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees’s last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees’s last 6 games when playing Houston

Houston Astros at New York Yankees Prediction

I think both pitchers throw well, and runs will be at a premium. I’m betting the UNDER.

Free MLB Pick: Under 6.5 Runs

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