Bet the Total: Mets vs. Nationals 5/12/22

by | May 12, 2022 | mlb

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals

Date: Thursday, May 12th, 01:05 ET

Location: Nationals Park

TV: SNY

Money Line: Mets -160 / Nationals +134 (Everygame - Grab a 200% bonus by signing up through our special link, depositing $25 and then going to their Special Promotions page and entering bonus code ROOKIE200. They’ll add an extra $50 to your account!)

Total Line: 9.0

STARTING PITCHING

New York: Taijuan Walker (0-0, 4.91)
Washington: Joan Adon (1-5, 6.99)

Mets Projected Lineup

Mark Canha LF
Dominic Smith 1B
Eduardo Escobar 3B
Jeff McNeil LF
Starling Marte RF
James McCann C
Francisco Lindor SS
Pete Alonso 1B
Brandon Nimmo CF
Taijuan Walker P

Nationals Projected Lineup

Maikel Franco 3B
Victor Robles CF
Yadiel Hernandez LF
Keibert Ruiz C
Juan Soto RF
Alcides Escobar 2B
Josh Bell 1B
Nelson Cruz CF
César Hernández 2B
Joan Adon P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

New York Mets: 21-10-0 SU / OU 14-15-3 / Run Line W/L 19-13-0
Washington Nationals: 10-21-0 SU / OU 14-15-3 / Run Line W/L 13-19-0

The Washington Nationals host the New York Mets on Thursday, May 12th at Nationals Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 01:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (-160), with an OU line set at 9.0.

Recent Form

The Mets will look to bounce back from a tough loss to Washington by the score of 8-3. New York’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 10 hits, leading to 8 runs. With their 10 hits, the Mets could only muster 3 runs. This defeat came despite being favored at -180.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 28 of their games, winning at a rate of 68.0%. This game went over the posted over-under line of 8.0 runs. On the season, New York’s over-under record is 14-15-3.

In the Mets’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 3-2. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at 2. In their last 5 contests, New York is averaging 4.6 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 4.47. So far, New York has won over half of their 10 series played, going 8-0-2.

The Washington Nationals will be looking to pick up another win, as they most recently defeated the Mets by 5 runs (8-3). For the game, the pitching staff held the Mets to 3 runs on 10 hits. In the victory, the Nationals came up with 10 hits and 8 runs. Despite being the underdogs, getting 150.0 on the moneyline, the Nationals still picked up the win. So far, the team has gone into 26 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 35.0%. In terms of the over-under, the Nationals and Mets combined to surpass the line of 8.0 runs. Against the run total, Washington is just 14-15-3.

The Nationals come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. Despite this record, the team still has a positive run differential of 3 (last 5). Even with their recent struggles, the offense has been steady, averaging 4.2 runs per game. This is right in line with their season average of 4.22. Washington has a below .500 series record of just 2-6-2.

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Pitching Matchup

For the Mets, starting pitcher Taijuan Walker has yet to factor into a decision. So far, Walker has put together an ERA of 4.91. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 3.67 innings. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.256. Opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Walker, averaging 1.64 homers per 9 innings pitched. Up to this point, Walker has a strikeout percentage of just 15.0% and a per game average of 2.33. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 3.27 walks per contest.

The Washington Nationals will send Joan Adon to the mound with an overall record of 1-5. To date, Adon has an ERA of 6.99 while lasting an average of 4.68 innings per appearance. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.261. Home runs have been an issue for Adon, as he is allowing an average of 1.28 per 9 innings pitched. Per game, Joan Adon is averaging 4.5, on a strikeout percentage of 20.0%. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 5.72 walks per outing.

New York vs Washington History

For the season, New York Mets and Washington Nationals will be playing their 6th game of the season. So far, New York is leading the season series, 4-2. The over-under record in this series sits at 2-4. The average run total in these games is 8.74 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 3.67 runs. Going back to last year, New York won the season series, 11 games to 8. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 7-9-1, with the average run total being 8.74 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.16 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
Mets are 7-2 in their last 9 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Nationals are 15-38 in their last 53 vs. National League East.
Nationals are 27-62 in their last 89 overall.

New York Mets at Washington Nationals Prediction

Even though the Nationals picked up a surprising win in last night’s game vs New York, look for the Mets to get revenge on Thursday afternoon. I expect New York to have a big day at the plate, as Nationals starter Joan Adon has been awful to start the year. Currently, he has a FIP of 5.28. But, on the other side, Taijuan Walker hasn’t been much better. There isn’t a lot of value in taking New York on the moneyline. Instead, I recommend taking the over at 9 runs.

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